An objective classification system of air mass types for Szeged, Hungary, with special interest in air pollution levels

Summary This paper determines the characteristic air mass types over the Carpathian Basin for the winter (December, January, and February) and summer (June, July and August) months dependant on levels of the main air pollutants. Based on the ECMWF data set, daily sea-level pressure fields analysed at 00 UTC were prepared for each air mass type (cluster) in order to relate sea-level pressure patterns with the level of air pollutants in Szeged. The data comprise daily values of twelve meteorological and eight pollutant parameters for the period 1997–2001. Objective definition of the characteristic air mass types is achieved by using the methods of Factor Analysis and Cluster Analysis. According to the results, during the winter months five air mass types (clusters) were detected based on higher concentrations of primary pollutants that occur with high irradiance and low wind speed. This is the case when an anticyclone is found over the Carpathian Basin and over the region south of Hungary, influencing the weather of the country. Low levels of pollutants occur when zonal currents exert influence over Hungary. During the summer months anticyclones and anticyclone ridge situations are found over the Carpathian Basin. (During the prevalence of anticyclone ridge situations, the Carpathian Basin is found at the edge of a high pressure centre.) As a result of high irradiance and very low NO levels, secondary pollutants are highly enriched.     

RELAXING ASSUMPTIONS OF PERFECT INFORMATION IN PARK VISITATION MODELS*

Variables related to urban park awareness are identified and methods for relaxing assumptions of perfect information in park use models are discussed. Park awareness is related to park characteristics (age and degree of development of the park), population characteristics (race, age, length of residence, recreation participation), and distance. Park attributes are stronger predictors of both park awareness and use than is distance. These findings parallel similar research on the cognitive aspects of shopping decisions.     

Sensitivity of a global ocean model to increased run-off from Greenland

We study the reaction of a global ocean–sea ice model to an increase of fresh water input into the northern North Atlantic under different surface boundary conditions, ranging from simple restoring of surface salinity to the use of an energy balance model (EBM) for the atmosphere. The anomalous fresh water flux is distributed around Greenland, reflecting increased melting of the Greenland ice sheet and increasing fresh water export from the Arctic Ocean. Depending on the type of surface boundary condition, the large circulation reacts with a slow-down of overturning and gyre circulations. Restoring of the total or mean surface salinity prevents a large scale redistribution of the salinity field that is apparent under mixed boundary conditions and with the EBM. The control run under mixed boundary conditions exhibits large and unrealistic oscillations of the meridional overturning. Although the reaction to the fresh water flux anomaly is similar to the response with the EBM, mixed boundary conditions must thus be considered unreliable. With the EBM, the waters in the deep western boundary current initially become saltier and a new fresh water mass forms in the north-eastern North Atlantic in response to the fresh water flux anomaly around Greenland. After an accumulation period of several decades duration, this new North East Atlantic Intermediate Water spreads towards the western boundary and opens a new southward pathway at intermediate depths along the western boundary for the fresh waters of high northern latitudes.     

Regeneration of sand waves after dredging

Sand waves are large bed waves on the seabed, being a few metres high and lying hundreds of metres apart. In some cases, these sand waves occur in navigation channels. If these sand waves reduce the water depth to an unacceptable level and hinder navigation, they need to be dredged. It has been observed in the Bisanseto Channel in Japan that the sand waves tend to regain their shape after dredging. In this paper, we address modelling of this regeneration of sand waves, aiming to predict this process. For this purpose, we combine a very simple, yet effective, amplitude-evolution model based on the Landau equation, with measurements in the Bisanseto Channel. The model parameters are tuned to the measured data using a genetic algorithm, a stochastic optimization routine. The results are good. The tuned model accurately reproduces the measured growth of the sand waves. The differences between the measured weave heights and the model results are smaller than the measurement noise. Furthermore, the resulting parameters are surprisingly consistent, given the large variations in the sediment characteristics, the water depth and the flow field. This approach was tested on its predictive capacity using a synthetic test case. The model was tuned based on constructed predredging data and the amplitude evolution as measured for over 2 years. After tuning, the predictions were accurate for about 10 years. Thus, it is shown that the approach could be a useful tool in the optimization of dredging strategies in case of dredging of sand waves.     

Impact of dynamic feedbacks between sedimentation,sea-level rise,and biomass production on near-surface marsh stratigraphy and carbon accumulation

Salt marshes accrete both organic and inorganic sediments. Here we present analytical and numerical models of salt marsh sedimentation that, in addition to capturing inorganic processes, explicitly account for above- and belowground organic processes including root growth and decay of organic carbon. The analytical model is used to examine the bias introduced by organic processes into proxy records of sedimentation, namely ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb. We find that accretion rates estimated using ²¹⁰Pb will be less than accretion rates estimated using the ¹³⁷Cs peak in steadily accreting marshes if (1) carbon decay is significant and (2) data for ²¹⁰Pb extend below the ¹³⁷Cs peak. The numerical model expands upon the analytical model by including belowground processes such as compaction and root growth, and by explicitly tracking the evolution of aboveground biomass and its effect on sedimentation rates. Using the numerical model we explore how marsh stratigraphy responds to sediment supply and the rate of sea-level rise. It is calibrated and tested using an extensive data set of both marsh stratigraphy and measurements of vegetation dynamics in a Spartina alterniflora marsh in South Carolina, USA. We find that carbon accumulation in marshes is nonlinearly related to both the supply of inorganic sediment and the rate of sea-level rise; carbon accumulation increases with sea-level rise until sea-level rise reaches a critical rate that drowns the marsh vegetation and halts carbon accumulation. The model predicts that changes in carbon storage resulting from changing sediment supply or sea-level rise are strongly dependent on the background sediment supply: if inorganic sediment supply is reduced in an already sediment poor marsh the storage of organic carbon will increase to a far greater extent than in a sediment-rich marsh, provided that the rate of sea-level rise does not exceed a threshold. These results imply that altering sediment supply to estuaries (e.g., by damming upstream rivers or altering littoral sediment transport) could lead to significant changes in the carbon budgets of coastal salt marshes.     

Crustal structure of the western Arafura Sea from ocean bottom seismograph data

Refraction data taken from ocean bottom seismograph recordings in the western Arafura Sea indicate a continental‐type structure for the region. This structure is characterised by a thin column (2 km) of sediments, with velocities ranging from about to 2 to 4 km s^‐1, overlying an essentially two layer crust. The compressional wave velocities in the upper and lower crust are 5.97 and 6.52 km s^‐1, respectively, with the boundary between the layers at a depth of 11 km. Very weak mantle‐refracted arrivals with a velocity of about 8.0 km s^‐1 were recorded. Large‐amplitude, later arrivals, beginning at distances near 100 and 150 km, have been interpreted to be part of the retrograde branches from the 8.0 and 7.33 km s^‐1 layers, respectively. Model studies indicate that a small positive velocity gradient is required between 17 and 30 km, and that the Moho is at a depth of 34 km. A third set of large amplitude, later arrivals starting at a distance near 250 km has been interpreted as most probably multiple refraction‐reflection arrivals from the 5.97 and 6.52 km s^‐1 layers. Correlation of this structure with the stratigraphic logs from exploratory oil wells in the Arafura Sea using layer velocities indicates that rocks younger than Jurassic appear to thin towards the east.