An analysis of climatic and human induced determinants of agricultural land use changes in Shupiyan area of Jammu and Kashmir state,India

The economy of the Jammu and Kashmir state depends mostly on traditional forms of occupation. Unaffected and unaltered by modern day industrial developments and changing times, the indigenous traditional occupations of farming, animal husbandry and horticulture forms the backbone of the state economy. But in the last few decades, Agriculture in the state as well as the study area is receiving a set back and Horticulture is flourishing leaps and bounds. The present study aims to analyze various determinants responsible for this change. Climatic as well as field data was thoroughly analyzed to comprehend the situation. A Mann–Kendall test was done on the climatic data to support the hypotheses. It was observed that initially changing climatic trends proved to be the triggering factor supporting this change, but in due course of time, the determinants took an economic and psychological turn. The perusal of Indian Meteorological Data reveals an increasing trend of annual mean maximum temperature from 16.78 °C in 1985 to 17.58 °C in 1995 and an increase from 5.30 °C to 7.00 °C in the annual mean minimum temperature, and as such acting as a triggering factor for the land use conversion. Further, the mean annual rainfall shows a decrease from 100.75 mm in 1981 to 79.43 mm in 1991. The greater economic returns from horticulture as well as the changing behavioral patterns of people over the time further cemented its growth. The farmers have since persisted with the horticulture activity as it has proven to be an economically a much better lucrative enterprise.     

Stellar polarization and the structure of the magnetic field of our galaxy

The stellar polarization data have been examined using a new catalogue containing accurate stellar distances. On the assumption of a magnetic alignment hypothesis, correlations on the larger distance scale indicate the existence of a dominant regular magnetic field, although its characteristics are difficult to determine. Within 500 pc its direction is towardsl45° and beyond this towardsl60°, though it is clear that such a longitudinal model is too simple. There is also some evidence for an inclination of this field to the galactic plane. The distribution of the polarization vectors away from the galactic plane has been examined and it is proposed that the two largest loop structures, previously identified as Supernova remnants, are linked by the regular field. Incremental polarization maps have been produced but they show little correlation with the spiral structure. The polarization appears to be saturated at about 1 kpc from the Sun, which is explained as the result of an observational selection effect. On the smaller distance scales an autocorrelation analysis in different directions has revealed no obvious coherence in the irregular component on scales greater than 50 pc.     

Application of time- and magnitude-predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in Iran

The regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied successfully in diverse regions of the world to describe the occurrence of main shocks. In the current study, the model has been calibrated against the historical and instrumental catalog of Iranian earthquakes. The Iranian plateau is divided into 15 seismogenic provinces; then, the interevent times for strong main shocks have been determined for each one. The empirical relations reported by Papazachos et al. (Tectonophysics 271:295–323, 1997a) for the Alpine–Himalayan belt (including Iran) were adopted except for the constant terms that were calculated separately for every seismotectonic area. By using the calibrated equations developed for the study area and taking into account the occurrence time and magnitude of the last main shocks in each seismogenic source, the time-dependent conditional probabilities of occurrence P(?t) of the next main shocks during next 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years as well as the magnitude of the expected main shocks (M _f) have been estimated. The immediate probability (within next 10 years) of a large main shock is estimated to be high and moderate (>35 %) in all regions except zones 9 (M _f = 5.8) and 15 (M _f = 6.1). However, it should be noted that the probabilities have been estimated for different M _f values in 15 regions. Comparing the model predictions with the actual earthquake occurrence rates shows the good performance of the model for Iranian plateau.     

Electrical and electromagnetic surveys to locate possible causes of water seepage to ground surface at a quarry open pit near Helwan city,Egypt

Water seepage to ground surface at a limestone quarry located at Wadi Garawy about 20 km south-east of Helwan city in Egypt posed a real threat to the mining activity at the quarry. The quarry area is known to be very dry for decades and away from water utilities and infrastructures that may cause water leaks to the quarry. Geophysical investigation including 1D Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES), 2D Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and 1D Transient Electromagnetic (TEM) surveys were conducted to characterize the rock sequence and locate what could be a possible source of water seepage to the quarry. The resistivity profiles generated from the VES and TEM surveys mapped the rock units in the area down to depths exceeded 100 m. The ERT profiles acquired from the quarrying zone close to the water seepage spot have imaged the top of groundwater level at few meters below the ground surface at the quarry open pit. The spot of groundwater seepage seemed to occur at an area of limestone dissolution that were filled by finer sediments. The finer sediments acted as a hydrological conduit that allowed an upward seepage of groundwater to ground surface under the capillary action effect.     

Age and depositional environment of the Draa Sfar massive sulfide deposit, Morocco

The Draa Sfar mineralization consists of two main stratabound orebodies, Sidi M’Barek and Tazacourt, located north and south of the Tensift River (“Oued Tessift”), respectively. Each orebody is comprised by at least two massive sulfide lenses. The hosting rocks are predominantly black shales, although minor rhyolitic rocks are also present in the footwall to the southern orebody. Shales, rhyolitic volcanic rocks, and massive sulfides are all included into the Sarhlef Series, which is recognized as one of the main stratigraphic units of the Moroccan Variscan Meseta. Hydrothermal activity related with an anomalous thermal gradient, together with a high sedimentation rate in a tectonically driven pull-apart marine basin, favored the accumulation of organic-rich mud in the deepest parts of the basin and the sedimentary environment suitable for massive sulfide deposition and preservation. This took place by replacement of the hosting unlithified wet mud below the sediment–water interface. Geochemical data suggest a sedimentary environment characterized by oxic water column and anoxic sediment pile with the redox boundary below the sediment–water interface. The low oxygen availability within the sediment pile inhibited oxidation and pyritization of pyrrhotite. Biostratigraphic analysis, based on the palynological content of the hosting black shales, restricts the age of the sulfides to the Asbian substage (mid-Mississippian). This age is consistent with earlier geochronological constraints.     

Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

Local ice caps in Finderup Land,North Greenland,survived the Holocene Thermal Maximum

Local glaciers and ice caps (GICs) comprise only ~5.4% of the total ice volume, but account for ~14–20% of the current ice loss in Greenland. The glacial history of GICs is not well constrained, however, and little is known about how they reacted to Holocene climate changes. Specifically, in North Greenland, there is limited knowledge about past GIC fluctuations and whether they survived the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM, ~8 to 5 ka). In this study, we use proglacial lake records to constrain the ice‐marginal fluctuations of three local ice caps in North Greenland including Flade Isblink, the largest ice cap in Greenland. Additionally, we have radiocarbon dated reworked marine molluscs in Little Ice Age (LIA) moraines adjacent to the Flade Isblink, which reveal when the ice cap was smaller than present. We found that outlet glaciers from Flade Isblink retreated inland of their present extent from ~9.4 to 0.2 cal. ka BP. The proglacial lake records, however, demonstrate that the lakes continued to receive glacial meltwater throughout the entire Holocene. This implies that GICs in Finderup Land survived the HTM. Our results are consistent with other observations from North Greenland but differ from locations in southern Greenland where all records show that the local ice caps at low and intermediate elevations disappeared completely during the HTM. We explain the north–south gradient in glacier response as a result of sensitivity to increased temperature and precipitation. While the increased temperatures during the HTM led to a complete melting of GICs in southern Greenland, GICs remained in North Greenland probably because the melting was counterbalanced by increased precipitation due to a reduction in Arctic sea‐ice extent and/or increased poleward moisture transport.     

SOIL VARIATION ON NORTH AND SOUTH SLOPE CATENAS ON A KAME IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN

Soils from two catenas on north-and south-facing slopes of a kame were analyzed to determine the effect of lithology, topography, and microclimate on profile development. In loess on the north-facing slope, where microclimate favored CaCO₃ dissolution and clay translocation, pedogenesis was rapid and an A-E-Bt-C profile developed. In contrast, an A-Bt-C profile developed on the south-facing slope. In gravel where limestone/dolostone dissolution was slow, A-C profiles were found and CaCO₃ was depleted to a ≤ 25-cm depth, 20± cm less than reported for similar Michigan soils. Slopewash and runoff are inferred to have caused silt accumulations and greater infiltration at the base of ≥ 20° slopes, resulting in a thicker solum in foot-and toe-slope positions, whereas on slopes of ≤ 7° infiltration and interflow are the dominant processes, resulting in a thicker solum on the transportational midslope. The differences in soil profile development are attributed to sediment facies changes at 25- to 50-cm depth and resulting groundwater movement. [Key words: soil development, soil spatial variability, kame slope catena, Wisconsin.]     

Seismic and well logging interpretation for evaluation of the lower Bahariya reservoir,southwest Qarun (SWQ) Field,Gindi Basin,Egypt

This paper focuses on seismic and well log interpretations for evaluating the sandstones of the Cenomanian Bahariya Formation in the southwest Qarun Field, Gindi Basin, northern Western Desert of Egypt. The seismic profiles display a clear anticlinal structure intersected by reverse faults in the study area. This faulted anticline has been interpreted to be one of the Syrian arc system folds formed by Upper Cretaceous tectonic inversion, which resulted from the NW movement of the African Plate relative to Laurasia. This anticline has been recommended as a target for exploration by the present work as it may represent a structural trap for hydrocarbon accumulation. The sandstones of the Lower Bahariya Formation in the southwest Qarun Field display good reservoir characteristics. The interpretation of the available well log data for the SWQ-21 and SWQ-25 wells for the Lower Bahariya Formation reflects a good reservoir quality for oil production in its topmost part. This reservoir possesses low S_W (<50%), high porosity (16%), low S_W/S_XO and low BVW (<0.09) which all reflect a high potential for oil production.