Enhancing the Forecasting of Monthly Streamflow in the Main Key Stations of the River Nile Basin

Predicting the streamflow of rivers can have a significant economic impact, as this can help in agricultural water management and in providing protection from water shortages and possible flood damage. In this study, two statistical models have been used; Deseasonalized Autoregressive moving average model (DARMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict monthly streamflow which important for reservoir operation policy using different time scale, monthly and 1/3 monthly (ten-days) flow data for River Nile basin at five key stations. The streamflow series is deseasonalized at different time scale and then an appropriate nonseasonal stochastic DARMA (p, q) models are built by using the plots of Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) to determine the order (p) of DARMA model. Then the deseasonalized data for key stations are used as input to ANN models with lags equals to the order (p) of DARMA model. The performance of ANN and DARMA models are compared using statistical methods. The results show that the developed model (using 1/3 monthly (ten-days) and ANN) has the best performance to predict monthly streamflow at all key stations. The results also show that the relative error in the developed model result did not exceed 9% while in the traditional models reach to 68% in the flood months in the testing period. The result also indicates that ANN has considerable potential for river flow forecasting.     

Elucidation of the Alum Shale kerogen structure using a multi-disciplinary approach

The significance and validity of integrating data obtained from a variety of analytical techniques to understand, elucidate and model kerogen's complex chemical structure is reported here using degradative (open and closed system pyrolysis, chemical oxidation), non-degradative (¹³C CP/MAS NMR) and optical (incident white light and blue light) methods. Seven Cambrian Alum Shale samples, ranging in maturity from immature to post-mature with respect to petroleum generation, were studied and were chosen for their simple geological history, uniform organic matter type and high organic carbon content. The Alum Shale kerogens, which primarily consist of algal organic matter, liberate low molecular weight gaseous and aromatic compounds on pyrolysis and give mostly branched dicarboxylic acids on chemical oxidation. ¹³C NMR spectroscopy shows that the Alum Shale kerogens are anomalously rich in oxygen-bearing functional groups (such as C = O, ArCO, CHO, CH_xO), most of which apparently remain intact within the kerogen macro-molecule (KMM) through the diagenetic and catagenetic stages. Fragments released by different degradative techniques are quantified and the aromaticity (f_a), O/C and relative proportions of various carbon types estimated by ¹³C NMR. A synthesis of these data has allowed us to better understand the chemistry of the Alum Shale kerogen.     

Numerical simulation of physical and dynamical characteristics associated with the severe thunderstorm on April 5, 2015 at Kushtia and Jhenaidah

The paper deals with the study of the physical and dynamical characteristics of a severe thunderstorm, which had occurred on April 5, 2015, at about 2100 UTC in the southwestern Bangladesh with location around 23.3–23.7N and 89.0–89.4E within the upazilas (sub-districts) of Kumarkhali and Shailkupa under the districts of Kushtia and Jhenaidah, respectively. The thunderstorm was associated with numerous hails of large size. More than 5000 birds which used to live in the bird sanctuary at Shailkupa and 22,011 birds in Chhaglapara Bird Sanctuary of Kumarkhali died as they were hit by the hails. Large hails also damaged crops, houses and forests over the thunderstorm hit areas. The evolution of the thunderstorm is studied by the WRF model, which is initialized using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Final reanalysis data of 0000 UTC of April 5, 2015. The simulated results provide a basis to study the physical and dynamical characteristics of the thunderstorm, which are generally not identified by the meteorological observations which are too sparse. The model has captured a micro-low over Kumarkhali and its neighborhood, which favored the occurrence of the severe thunderstorm. The model simulated rainfall is about 26 mm near the place of occurrence, which matches well with the area where the reflectivity of hydrometeor is maximum. The convective available potential energy is found to be 1600 J kg^?1 at 1730 UTC near the place of occurrence of the thunderstorm; this indicates high atmospheric instability over the thunderstorm location for the formation of the thunderstorm. The vertical velocity, convergence, cloud water mixing ratio and the ice water mixing ratio and their vertical extensions are found to be satisfactory and responsible for the occurrence of large hails associated with the thunderstorm.     

Transport rate of calcareous sand in unidirectional flow

This paper examines the transport of calcareous sand in unidirectional flow and its prediction through existing sediment transport models. A flume experiment of four sand samples collected on Oahu, Hawaii, provides 29 sets of sediment transport data in the bed-form and suspended transport stages. The measured transport data are compared with direct predictions from four energy-based transport models developed for siliceous particles. Corrections for the grain-size, fall velocity, and critical velocity of calcareous sand based on recent research are applied to the models and the results are compared with the direct calculations and measured data. The comparison illustrates the important role particle shape plays in the transport of calcareous sand. All four sediment transport models give consistent predictions and good agreement with the majority of the measured data. Two of the models respond positively to the corrections in both the bed-form and suspended transport stages indicating that such an approach may provide an interim solution for the transport of calcareous sand.     

Surface Energy Exchanges during Pre-monsoon Thunderstorm Activity over a Tropical Station Kharagpur

In the present study an attempt has been made to understand the variation of surface energy fluxes such as net radiation, sensible, latent and soil heat during different epochs of thunderstorm activity at Kharagpur. The study also focuses in delineating the difference in the surface energy budget from the days of thunderstorm activity to fair weather days in the pre-monsoon months (April and May) which is locally known as thunderstorm season. For this purpose, experimental data obtained from the Severe Thunderstorms- Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM) programme during pre-monsoon months of 2007, 2009 and 2010 at Kharagpur (22°30′N, 87°20′E), West Bengal, India are used. The present study reveals quick response, in the order of a few days, in the variations of transport of energy fluxes at soil-atmosphere interface to the upper atmosphere vis-à-vis to the occurrence of thunderstorm activity. Rise of surface sensible heat flux to the level of surface latent heat flux a day or two before the occurrence of a thunderstorm has been identified as a precursor signal for the thunderstorm occurrence over Kharagpur. Distinguishable differences are found in the partitioning of the surface energy fluxes to that of net radiation between thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm days. The present study reveals more Bowen’s ratio during thunderstorm days to that of nonthunderstorm days. These results are useful in validating mesoscale model simulations of thunderstorm activity.     

Interpretation of epikarstic cave drip water recession curves: a case study from Velika Pasica Cave,central Slovenia

ABSTRACT

Recession curves are widely used in hydrological studies and projects, such as in rivers, streams or springs. However, no cave drip water has been analysed with recession curves. In this paper, four cave drips were monitored in the Velika Pasica Cave, in order to discover the water flow and storage properties of the epikarst. Various methods were applied in the recession analysis, combining the hydrological characteristics of the four drips: for the slow water in the epikarst, the matching strip method was the identified as the appropriate model for the drip water recession analysis. According to the recession coefficient k, the water flow in the epikarst was divided into fast flow, intermediate flow and slow flow. The volume of water retained in the reservoir (the epikarst storage) could be presented as a function of its specific recession coefficient.

EDITOR D.Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR X. Chen     

Comparison of trends in stream water quality

A method is described for assessing the strength of evidence for differences in the trends in chemical concentrations in stream water between catchments. A smoothing spline technique is used to model changes in water quality as a result of changes in flow rates, seasonal effects and an underlying trend. The method involves fitting the model twice, once with the underlying trends constrained to be identical for each river and once with the trends unconstrained. Statistical properties are assessed by simulation methods that allow for the autocorrelation in the residuals from the unconstrained fit. The method is applied to data from two streams in the Balquhidder catchments in the Highlands of Scotland and to data from the Dee, Don and Ythan rivers in the north‐east of Scotland. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Observations of the Ushant tidal front in September 2007

The Ushant tidal front is the dominant feature of the summer season hydrological structure of the Iroise Sea. It separates tidally mixed coastal waters from thermally stratified open Celtic Sea waters. This article reports on observations made in September 2007 during two short cruises that took place aboard R/V “Côtes de la Manche”, and gives a general account of the physical structure of the front along one cross-frontal transect. The data set comprises data from a 4 month ADCP mooring, short CTD/fluorescence/nutrients transects, Lagrangian drifter trajectories, and HF radar surface current measurements. One finding is that the surface and bottom fronts, being affected by different dynamical influences, are not necessarily coincident in the vertical. This entails that the opposite density gradients located above and below the thermocline depth do not necessarily compensate, and can each be associated with a significant surface geostrophic expression. A second finding is that mixing effects bear a very strong influence on the thermal structure of the warm-water intrusions associated with frontal cyclonic eddies of the kind described by Pingree [1978. Cyclonic eddies and cross-frontal mixing. Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom 58 (4), 955–963].     

Coseismic and other short-term strain changes recorded with Sacks-Evertson strainmeters in a deep mine, South Africa

Summary. During 1977 March and April, three Sacks-Evertson borehole dilatometers were installed at the ends of boreholes drilled into the sidewall of an experimental tunnel at a depth of 3.1 km in the ERPM gold mine near Johannesburg. In the following year coseismic strain changes ranging from 5 ± 10⁻¹⁰ to values exceeding 5 ± 10⁻⁶ were recorded for hundreds of mine tremors in the magnitude range -1 to 3.7 and at hypocentral distances of 50 m to about 2 km. Hypocentral coordinates and magnitudes were determined from seismograms recorded from an underground array of geophones. Amplitudes and polarities of the coseismic strain steps are generally in excellent agreement with theoretical expectations based on point-source dislocation theory; specifically, the strain steps are proportional to the seismic moment divided by the cube of hypocentral distance. At a strain level of 5 ± 10⁻⁹ or greater the tremors do not appear to be preceded by any short-term indications of instability even for tremors producing coseismic steps greater than 5 ± 10⁻⁶ and for which the strainmeters were within a source radius of the hypocentre. Continuous strain changes observed at the times when the mine excavation, at a distance of about 100 m, is extended are in good agreement with calculated changes based on the theory of elasticity. A similar calculation is consistent with post-seismic strain changes observed to follow some of the closer tremors. These post-seismic strains show a logarithmic dependence on time following the tremor and appear to be due to the interaction of a tremor with the adjacent mine excavation rather than to deformation within the actual seismic source region.