Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.     

Mineralogy and major-element geochemistry of the lower Permian Greta Seam,Sydney Basin,Australia

The mineralogy of the high-volatile bituminous coals and associated strata from the Greta seam, Sydney Basin, Australia, has been evaluated in this study. Although the seam is not immediately overlain by marine strata, percolation of marine water into the original peat bed is indicated by the petrological, mineralogical and geochemical characteristics, which resemble those of coals with marine roof strata. The upper and lower sections of the seam have contrasting mineralogy. Pyrite typically comprises 40 to 56 wt% of the mineral assemblage in the marine-influenced upper part of the seam section. The lower part contains much less pyrite (typically <5 wt%, organic-free basis), and also relatively abundant dawsonite (up to 14 wt%, organic-free basis). The minerals within most coal plies are largely of authigenic origin. These include pyrite, siderite, clay minerals (mainly kaolinite and Na-rich mixed-layer illite/smectite), and quartz, most of which have a relatively early, syngenetic origin. Minor Ti-bearing minerals, anatase or rutile, and phosphate minerals, fluorapatite and goyazite, were probably also formed during early diagenesis. Other minerals have features that indicate late-stage precipitation. These include abundant cleat- and fracture-filling dawsonite, which may be the result of reactions between earlier-precipitated kaolinite and Na₂CO₃- or NaHCO₃-bearing fluids. Minor albite may also be epigenetic, possibly precipitated from the same Ca–Al bearing fluids that formed the dawsonite. The most abundant detrital minerals in the Greta coals are quartz, poorly ordered kaolinite, illite and mixed-layer illite/smectite (I/S). These occur mainly in the floor, roof and other epiclastic horizons of the seam, reflecting periods of greater clastic influx into those parts of the original peat-forming environment. Detrital minerals are rare in the coals away from the epiclastic horizons, probably owing to almost complete sediment bypassing in the depositional system. Alternatively, any detrital minerals that were originally present may have been leached from the peat bed by diagenetic or post-diagenetic processes.     

Upscaling in Global Change Research

This paper reviews the problems of upscaling that arise, in the context of global change research, in a wide variety of disciplines in the physical and social sciences. Upscaling is taken to mean the process of extrapolating from the site-specific scale at which observations are usually made or at which theoretical relationships apply, to the smallest scale that is resolved in global-scale models. Upscaling is pervasive in global change research; although in some cases it is done implicitly. A number of conceptually distinct, fundamental causes of upscaling problems are identified and are used to classify the upscaling problems that have been encountered in different disciplines. A variety of solutions to the upscaling problems have been developed in different disciplines, and these are compared here. Improper upscaling can dramatically after model simulation results in some cases. A consideration of scaling problems across diverse disciplines reveals a number of interesting conceptual similarities among disciplines whose practitioners might otherwise not communicate with each other. Upscaling raises a number of important questions concerning predictability and reliability in global change research, which are discussed here. There is a clear need for more research into the circumstances in which simple upscaling is not appropriate, and to develop or refine techniques for upscaling.     

Laboratory and field investigations of rockburst phenomena using concurrent geotomographic imaging and acoustic emission/microseismic techniques

The progress made on three phases of a research project, started in 1986 to investigate mining induced seismicity/rockburst phenomena using concurrent geotomographic imaging and microseismic monitoring techniques, is described. Phase I is the geotomographic software development and laboratory calibration trials. Phase II is the enhancement of traditional microseismic monitoring instrumentation with a waveform acquisition system, so that source mechanism studies can be carried out on mining induced seismic events. Phase III is the field trials of the hybrid technique which will be used to monitor changing rock mass physical properties, in response to mining. Preliminary results from all three phases are given, together with an outline of current and future research planned.Presented at the Fred Leighton Memorial Workshop on Mining Induced Seismicity, Montreal 1987.     

Shallow-Water Gasohydrothermal Vents of Ushishir Volcano and the Ecosystem of Kraternaya Bight (The Kurile Islands)

Abstract. A marine ecosystem in the crater of the Ushishir Volcano (Kraternaya Bight, Yankich Island, the Kuriles) showing gasothcrmal activity was studied for hydrographical, hydrochemical, and biological characteristics. Maximal changes in chemical and biological characteristics were observed in the surface water layer of 0–5 m. This layer had higher water temperature, was saturated with volcanogcnic carbon dioxide (up to 2000 10^-6 torr), ovcrsaturatcd with oxygen (up to 200 %), and contained high concentrations of chlorophyll a. Hydrogen sulfide was found in the surface water layer and at a depth of 15 m in the area of maximal effect of volcanic effluents.
The planktonic community is characterized by high rates of production and destruction of organic matter only in the 0–5 m layer. Daily vertical migrations of the ciliatc Mesodinium rubrum were observed, which caused "red tides".
Bacterial, algobacterial, and diatom mats developed on the bottom of the bight in the zone of gasohydrothermal vents and in areas of volcanic water seeping. The rate of organic matter production in algobacterial mats reached 33.4g C-rrr²-d^-l, chcmolithotrophy predominating. Bottom settlements had high population density and great animal biomass, which reached 10 kg m^-2 in gasohydrothermal fields. They obtain sufficient energy from primary production of microphy-tobenthos, algobacterial, and bacterial mats. Bcnthic species dominant in the bight were not found off the Ushishir Islands.
Some species of macrobenthos inhabiting the Kraternaya Bight differ markedly in size and biomass from the same species found beyond the bight.     

漠阳江入海口海岸线分维及其机制分析

分维数是反映海岸线复杂程度的客观依据。结合国内外海岸线分形研究进展,本文以漠阳江入海口附近海域为研究区,基于Landsat 8 OLI遥感影像对研究区域提取瞬时水边线,并利用潮汐数据进行校正得到海岸线;利用Fractal Fox2.0计算获得该海岸线的分维数为1.071;通过对研究区的分形机制分析,认为漠阳江附近的断裂构造对海岸起宏观控制作用,从而对海岸线的分维值也起了决定作用。根据断裂体系模型计算得到西侧海岸线的理论分维值为1.089,而对数螺线模型计算得到东侧海岸线的分维值为1.171;实际分维值相对理论值偏小,说明海岸带的沉积与侵蚀影响了分维值。此外,根据本区海岸侵蚀原因的分析,对分维机制进行了探究,初步论证的分维值大小可为海岸的冲淤变化研究提供参考。     

Options to overcome the barriers to pricing European agricultural emissions

Although agriculture could contribute substantially to European emission reductions, its mitigation potential lies untapped and dormant. Market-based instruments could be pivotal in incentivizing cost-effective abatement. However, sector specificities in transaction costs, leakage risks and distributional impacts impede its implementation. The significance of such barriers critically hinges on the dimensions of policy design. This article synthesizes the work on emissions pricing in agriculture together with the literature on the design of market-based instruments. To structure the discussion, an options space is suggested to map policy options, focusing on three key dimensions of policy design. More specifically, it examines the role of policy coverage, instruments and transfers to farmers in overcoming the barriers. First, the results show that a significant proportion of agricultural emissions and mitigation potential could be covered by a policy targeting large farms and few emission sources, thereby reducing transaction costs. Second, whether an instrument is voluntary or mandatory influences distributional outcomes and leakage. Voluntary instruments can mitigate distributional concerns and leakage risks but can lead to subsidy lock-in and carbon price distortion. Third, the impact on transfers resulting from the interaction of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) with emissions pricing will play a key role in shaping political feasibility and has so far been underappreciated.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Following the 2015 Paris Agreement, European climate policy is at a crossroads. Achieving cost-effectively the 2030 and 2050 European targets requires all sectors to reduce their emissions. Yet, the cornerstone of European climate policy, the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), covers only about half of European emissions. Major sectors have been so far largely exempted from carbon pricing, in particular transport and agriculture. While transport has been increasingly under the spotlight as a possible candidate for an EU ETS sectoral expansion, policy discussions on pricing agricultural emissions have been virtually absent. This article attempts to fill this gap by investigating options for market-based instruments to reduce agricultural emissions while taking barriers to implementation into account.     

A shipborne magnetic survey in Hudson Bay

A marine magnetic total-field survey of Hudson Bay was conducted from 1975 to 1978. Approximately 62 000 line-km of data, or 35 000 five-minute averages, were acquired. The data were corrected for secular variation by means of a polynomial in latitude, longitude, and time, first fitted to annual mean differences from nine observatories and then integrated over time. The data were corrected for diurnal and transient variations by means of a linear interpolation, over geomagnetic latitude, of running hourly mean values from two neighbouring magnetic stations (numbering seven in all). Crossover differences are analysed in terms of a mixture of normal distributions resulting from the intermittent transient variations, and indicate the effectiveness of the corrections. The variance of the data is reduced, as a result of the corrections, by 87% during quiet periods and by 53% during disturbed periods, the weighted variance being reduced by 66%. Navigational accuracy is estimated, from a novel method utilizing crossover differences and field gradients, to be approximately 300 m. Anomalies are presented in profile form, and discussed briefly.Contribution from the Earth Physics Branch No. 973.     

Catastrophic middle Pleistocene jökulhlaups in the upper Susquehanna River: Distinctive landforms from breakout floods in the central Appalachians

Widespread till and moraines record excursions of middle-Pleistocene ice that flowed up-slope into several watersheds of the Valley and Ridge Province along the West Branch of the Susquehanna River. A unique landform assemblage was created by ice-damming and jökulhlaups emanating from high gradient mountain watersheds. This combination of topography formed by multiple eastward-plunging anticlinal ridges, and the upvalley advance of glaciers resulted in an ideal geomorphic condition for the formation of temporary ice-dammed lakes. Extensive low gradient (1°–2° slope) gravel surfaces dominate the mountain front geomorphology in this region and defy simple explanation. The geomorphic circumstances that occurred in tributaries to the West Branch Susquehanna River during middle Pleistocene glaciation are extremely rare and may be unique in the world. Failure of ice dams released sediment-rich water from lakes, entraining cobbles and boulders, and depositing them in elongated debris fans extending up to 9 km downstream from their mountain-front breakout points. Poorly developed imbrication is rare, but occasionally present in matrix-supported sediments resembling debris flow deposits. Clast weathering and soils are consistent with a middle Pleistocene age for the most recent flows, circa the 880-ka paleomagnetic date for glacial lake sediments north of the region on the West Branch Susquehanna River. Post-glacial stream incision has focused along the margins of fan surfaces, resulting in topographic inversion, leaving bouldery jökulhlaup surfaces up to 15 m above Holocene channels. Because of their coarse nature and high water tables, jökulhlaup surfaces are generally forested in contrast to agricultural land use in the valleys and, thus, are readily apparent from orbital imagery.     

Classifying GRB 170817A/GW170817 in a Fermi duration–hardness plane

GRB 170817A, associated with the LIGO-Virgo GW170817 neutron-star merger event, lacks the short duration and hard spectrum of a Short gamma-ray burst (GRB) expected from long-standing classification models. Correctly identifying the class to which this burst belongs requires comparison with other GRBs detected by the Fermi GBM. The aim of our analysis is to classify Fermi GRBs and to test whether or not GRB 170817A belongs—as suggested—to the Short GRB class. The Fermi GBM catalog provides a large database with many measured variables that can be used to explore gamma-ray burst classification. We use statistical techniques to look for clustering in a sample of 1298 gamma-ray bursts described by duration and spectral hardness. Classification of the detected bursts shows that GRB 170817A most likely belongs to the Intermediate, rather than the Short GRB class. We discuss this result in light of theoretical neutron-star merger models and existing GRB classification schemes. It appears that GRB classification schemes may not yet be linked to appropriate theoretical models, and that theoretical models may not yet adequately account for known GRB class properties. We conclude that GRB 170817A may not fit into a simple phenomenological classification scheme.