A reassessment of the economic effects of global climate change on U.S. agriculture

This study uses recent GCM forecasts, improved plant science and water supply data and refined economic modeling capabilities to reassess the economic consequences of long-term climate change on U.S. agriculture. Changes in crop yields, crop water demand and irrigation water arising from climate change result in changes in economic welfare. Economic consequences of the three GCM scenarios are mixed; GISS and GFDL-QFlux result in aggregate economic gains, UKMO implies losses. As in previous studies, the yield enhancing effects of atmospheric CO₂ are an important determinant of potential economic consequences. Inclusion of changes in world food production and associated export changes generally have a positive affect on U.S. agriculture. As with previous studies, the magnitude of economic effects estimated here are a small percentage of U.S. agricultural value.     

Application of stress-pore pressure coupling theory for porous media to the Xinfengjiang reservoir earthquakes

Theory of the coupling of stress-pore pressure in the saturated, elastic porous media is used in the study of the formation mechanism of the Xinfengjiang reservoir-induced earthquakes. Based on the results, it is believed that compared with the mechanism of additional stress in the vicinity of the reservoir, the mechanism of the coupling of additional stress and pore pressure may be more well-founded for the occurrence of reservoir-induced earthquakes.     

冻土蠕变过程中结构的CT分析

ＣＴ为非破坏的持续检测和定量描述不同实验条件下试样的内部结构提供了可能，本文利用这一手段观测分析了冻土蠕变过程结构的变化情况，认为冻土蠕变过程中所进行的发育微裂隙、颗粒集合体的破坏以及其它结构缺陷的增生与扩展，制约着土结构的强化与弱化作用，控制着蠕变过程的形态特征，同时还给出了ＣＴ值与物密度和含水量之间的定量关系。     

测定水浸土壤样的水中氦找铀矿方法的研究

本文讨论了利用离子泵测氦仪,测定水浸土壤样的水中氦的找铀矿方法。通过十项浸泡条件及测量试验,确定了处理土壤样的水浸技术。在矿床上取样分析的结果表明,在陡倾角地层的条件下,壤中氦异常出现在深部铀矿化范围的水平投影位置上,说明该方法对寻找隐伏铀矿是有效的,可用于地表详测等找矿工作。     

MM5-HPAC simulation experiments

Summary We evaluate mesoscale model predicted boundary-layer flow and the subsequent HPAC (Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability) dispersion computation. The HPAC software allows for prediction of the effects of surface release of hazardous material into the atmosphere and collateral damage on civilian populations using either observed or numerical weather model data. The advanced mesoscale weather model MM5 was employed in the study. The real-data MM5 model simulations were verified with high-resolution observations from the West Texas Mesonet. MM5 worked well in simulating meteorologically relatively quiescent conditions. We examined the sensitivity of HPAC computations to the MM5 model’s grid resolution, lateral boundary conditions, and input weather data. Results suggest that the MM5-HPAC conjugation can provide useful prediction of airborne transport of hazardous materials near the surface. However, the accuracy of diffusion computations strongly depends on the performance of MM5, which in turn is likely to be a function of weather scenarios. A given state-of-the-art mesoscale model may perform well in some cases but not in others. There is a potential benefit of using several different model winds separately to run HPAC. A composite result of the HPAC runs could give a more comprehensive depiction of the transport of surface hazardous agents.     

Allocating local groundwater monitoring stations for South Korea using an analytic hierarchy process

A national groundwater-monitoring network consisting of 320 stations has been operated by the Ministry of Construction and Transportation and the Korea Water Resources Corporation since 1995. The network was established as a result of the Groundwater Act of Korea, and a supplementary local groundwater monitoring network containing 10,000 stations will be established throughout the country by the year 2011. A method of allocating stations and organizing the local monitoring network has been developed, based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), using pairwise comparison. Several evaluation criteria were selected for determining the required number of the monitoring stations at specific local districts. Weights of the selected criteria were assigned by the pairwise comparison, reflecting hydrogeological conditions and supported by pertinent questions to 93 groundwater experts. To evaluate appropriateness of this method, an example city, Jeonju, was selected where groundwater levels were monitored; seven stations were determined as to be required for the supplementary groundwater-monitoring network. The study demonstrated the usefulness of the AHP. The concepts of the development and the structure of the AHP model can be applied to site or well selections within a particular district.     

Potential impacts of aerosol–land–atmosphere interactions on the Indian monsoonal rainfall characteristics

Aerosols can affect the cloud-radiation feedback and the precipitation over the Indian monsoon region. In this paper, we propose that another pathway by which aerosols can modulate the multi-scale aspect of Indian monsoons is by altering the land–atmosphere interactions. The nonlinear feedbacks due to aerosol/diffuse radiation on coupled interactions over the Indian monsoon region are studied by: (1) reviewing recent field measurements and modeling studies, (2) analyzing the MODIS and AERONET aerosol optical depth datasets, and (3) diagnosing the results from sensitivity experiments using a mesoscale modeling system. The results of this study suggest that the large magnitude of aerosol loading and its impact on land–atmosphere interactions can significantly influence the mesoscale monsoonal characteristics in the Indo-Ganges Basin.     

Effect of agricultural land use on the chemistry of groundwater from basaltic aquifers, Jeju Island, South Korea

Geochemical processes were identified as controlling factors of groundwater chemistry, including chemical weathering, salinization from seawater and dry sea-salt deposition, nitrate contamination, and rainfall recharge. These geochemical processes were identified using principal component analysis of major element chemistry of groundwater from basaltic aquifers in Jeju Island, South Korea, a volcanic island with intense agricultural activities. The contribution of the geochemical processes to groundwater chemistry was quantified by a simple mass-balance approach. The geochemical effects due to seawater were considered based on Cl contributions, whereas the effects due to natural chemical weathering were based on alkalinity. Nitrogenous fertilizers, and especially the associated nitrification processes, appear to significantly affect groundwater chemistry. A strong correlation was observed between Na, Mg, Ca, SO₄ and Cl, and nitrate concentrations in groundwater. Correspondingly, the total major cations, Cl, and SO₄ in groundwater were assessed to estimate relative effect of N-fertilizer use on groundwater chemistry. Cl originates more from nitrate sources than from seawater, whereas SO₄ originates mostly from rainwater. N-fertilizer use has shown the greatest effect on groundwater chemistry, particularly when nitrate concentrations exceed 6–7 mg/L NO₃–N. Nitrate contamination significantly affects groundwater quality and 18% of groundwater samples have contamination-dominated chemistry.     

A new approach of selecting real input ground motions for seismic design: The most unfavourable real seismic design ground motions

This paper presents a new way of selecting real input ground motions for seismic design and analysis of structures based on a comprehensive method for estimating the damage potential of ground motions, which takes into consideration of various ground motion parameters and structural seismic damage criteria in terms of strength, deformation, hysteretic energy and dual damage of Park & Ang damage index. The proposed comprehensive method fully involves the effects of the intensity, frequency content and duration of ground motions and the dynamic characteristics of structures. Then, the concept of the most unfavourable real seismic design ground motion is introduced. Based on the concept, the most unfavourable real seismic design ground motions for rock, stiff soil, medium soil and soft soil site conditions are selected in terms of three typical period ranges of structures. The selected real strong motion records are suitable for seismic analysis of important structures whose failure or collapse will be avoided at a higher level of confidence during the strong earthquake, as they can cause the greatest damage to structures and thereby result in the highest damage potential from an extended real ground motion database for a given site. In addition, this paper also presents the real input design ground motions with medium damage potential, which can be used for the seismic analysis of structures located at the area with low and moderate seismicity. The most unfavourable real seismic design ground motions are verified by analysing the seismic response of structures. It is concluded that the most unfavourable real seismic design ground motion approach can select the real ground motions that can result in the highest damage potential for a given structure and site condition, and the real ground motions can be mainly used for structures whose failure or collapse will be avoided at a higher level of confidence during the strong earthquake. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.