Including spatial distribution in a data‐driven rainfall‐runoff model to improve reservoir inflow forecasting in Taiwan

Multi‐step ahead inflow forecasting has a critical role to play in reservoir operation and management in Taiwan during typhoons as statutory legislation requires a minimum of 3‐h warning to be issued before any reservoir releases are made. However, the complex spatial and temporal heterogeneity of typhoon rainfall, coupled with a remote and mountainous physiographic context, makes the development of real‐time rainfall‐runoff models that can accurately predict reservoir inflow several hours ahead of time challenging. Consequently, there is an urgent, operational requirement for models that can enhance reservoir inflow prediction at forecast horizons of more than 3 h. In this paper, we develop a novel semi‐distributed, data‐driven, rainfall‐runoff model for the Shihmen catchment, north Taiwan. A suite of Adaptive Network‐based Fuzzy Inference System solutions is created using various combinations of autoregressive, spatially lumped radar and point‐based rain gauge predictors. Different levels of spatially aggregated radar‐derived rainfall data are used to generate 4, 8 and 12 sub‐catchment input drivers. In general, the semi‐distributed radar rainfall models outperform their less complex counterparts in predictions of reservoir inflow at lead times greater than 3 h. Performance is found to be optimal when spatial aggregation is restricted to four sub‐catchments, with up to 30% improvements in the performance over lumped and point‐based models being evident at 5‐h lead times. The potential benefits of applying semi‐distributed, data‐driven models in reservoir inflow modelling specifically, and hydrological modelling more generally, are thus demonstrated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of temporal scales and space mismatches on the TRMM 3B42 v7 precipitation product in a remote mountainous area

The accurate measurement of precipitation is essential to understanding regional hydrological processes and hydrological cycling. Quantification of precipitation over remote regions such as the Tibetan Plateau is highly unreliable because of the scarcity of rain gauges. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of the satellite precipitation product of tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) 3B42 v7 at daily, weekly, monthly, and seasonal scales. Comparison between TRMM grid precipitation and point‐based rain gauge precipitation was conducted using nearest neighbour and bilinear weighted interpolation methods. The results showed that the TRMM product could not capture daily precipitation well due to some rainfall events being missed at short time scales but provided reasonably good precipitation data at weekly, monthly, and seasonal scales. TRMM tended to underestimate the precipitation of small rainfall events (less than 1 mm/day), while it overestimated the precipitation of large rainfall events (greater than 20 mm/day). Consequently, TRMM showed better performance in the summer monsoon season than in the winter season. Through comparison, it was also found that the bilinear weighted interpolation method performs better than the nearest neighbour method in TRMM precipitation extraction.     

What is the source of baseflow in agriculturally fragmented catchments? Complex groundwater/surface‐water interactions in three tributary catchments of the Wabash River,Indiana, USA

Some conceptual models suggest that baseflow in agriculturally fragmented watersheds may contain little, if any, groundwater. This has critical implications for stream quality and ecosystem functioning. Here, we (a) identify the sources and flowpaths contributing to baseflow using ²²²Rn and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and (b) quantify mean apparent ages of groundwater and baseflow using multiple isotopic tracers (CFC, SF₆, ³⁶Cl, and ³H) in 4 small (0.08 to 0.64 km²) tributary catchments to the Wabash River in Indiana, USA. ²²²Rn activities and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios indicate that baseflow in 3 catchments is sourced primarily from groundwater; baseflow in the fourth is dominated by a source similar to agricultural run‐off. CFC‐12 data indicate that springs in 1 catchment are discharging significant proportions of water that recharged between 1974 (42 ± 2 years) and 1961 (55 ± 2 years). Those same springs have ³⁶Cl/Cl ratios between 1,381.08 ± 29.37 (×10^?15) and 1,530.64 ± 27.65 (×10^?15) indicating that a substantial proportion of the discharge likely recharged between 1975 (41 years) and 1950 (66 years). Groundwater samples collected from streambed mini‐piezometers in a separate catchment have CFC‐12 concentrations indicating that a large proportion of the recharge occurred between 1948 (68 ± 2 years) and 1950 (66 ± 2 years). Repeat sampling conducted in September 2015 after above‐average summer rainfall did not show significant decreases in mean apparent age. The relatively old ages observed in 3 of the catchments can be explained by geological complexities that are likely present in all 4 catchments, but overwhelmed by flow from the shallow phreatic aquifer in the fourth catchment.     

Quantifying the impact of landscape changes on hydrological variables in the alpine and cold region using hydrological model and remote sensing data

Quantifying the impact of landscape on hydrological variables is essential for the sustainable development of water resources. Understanding how landscape changes influence hydrological variables will greatly enhance the understanding of hydrological processes. Important vegetation parameters are considered in this study by using remote sensing data and VIC-CAS model to analyse the impact of landscape changes on hydrology in upper reaches of the Shule River Basin (URSLB). The results show there are differences in the runoff generation of landscape both in space and time. With increasing altitude, the runoff yields increased, with approximately 79.9% of the total runoff generated in the high mountains (4200–5900 m), and mainly consumed in the mid-low mountain region. Glacier landscape produced the largest runoff yields (24.9% of the total runoff), followed by low-coverage grassland (LG; 22.5%), alpine cold desert (AL; 19.6%), mid-coverage grassland (MG; 15.6%), bare land (12.5%), high-coverage grassland (HG; 4.5%) and shrubbery (0.4%). The relative capacity of runoff generation by landscapes, from high to low, was the glaciers, AL, LG, HG, MG, shrubbery and bare land. Furthermore, changes in landscapes cause hydrological variables changes, including evapotranspiration, runoff and baseflow. The study revealed that HG, MG, and bare land have a positive impact on evapotranspiration and a negative impact on runoff and baseflow, whereas AL and LG have a positive impact on runoff and baseflow and a negative impact on evapotranspiration. In contrast, glaciers have a positive impact on runoff. After the simulation in four vegetation scenarios, we concluded that the runoff regulation ability of grassland is greater than that of bare land. The grassland landscape is essential since it reduced the flood peak and conserved the soil and water.     

Pressure and temperature conditions for crystallization of metamorphic allanite and monazite in metapelites: a case study from the Miyar Valley (high Himalayan Crystalline of Zanskar,NW India)

The textural and chemical evolution of allanite and monazite along a well‐constrained prograde metamorphic suite in the High Himalayan Crystalline of Zanskar was investigated to determine the P–T conditions for the crystallization of these two REE accessory phases. The results of this study reveals that: (i) allanite is the stable REE accessory phase in the biotite and garnet zone and (ii) allanite disappears at the staurolite‐in isograd, simultaneously with the occurrence of the first metamorphic monazite. Both monazite and allanite occur as inclusions in staurolite, indicating that the breakdown of allanite and the formation of monazite proceeded during staurolite crystallization. Staurolite growth modelling indicates that staurolite crystallized between 580 and 610 °C, thus setting the lower temperature limit for the monazite‐forming reaction at ~600 °C. Preservation of allanite and monazite inclusions in garnet (core and rim) constrains the garnet molar composition when the first monazite was overgrown and subsequently encompassed by the garnet crystallization front. Garnet growth modelling and the intersection of isopleths reveal that the monazite closest to the garnet core was overgrown by the garnet advancing crystallization front at 590 °C, which establishes an upper temperature limit for monazite crystallization. Significantly, the substitution of allanite by monazite occurs in close spatial proximity, i.e. at similar P–T conditions, in all rock types investigated, from Al‐rich metapelites to more psammitic metasedimentary rocks. This indicates that major silicate phases, such as staurolite and garnet, do not play a significant role in the monazite‐forming reaction. Our data show that the occurrence of the first metamorphic monazite in these rocks was mainly determined by the P–T conditions, not by bulk chemical composition. In Barrovian terranes, dating prograde monazite in metapelites thus means constraining the time when these rocks reached the 600 °C isotherm.     

The effect of conservation practices in sloped croplands on soil hydraulic properties and root‐zone moisture dynamics

Rain‐induced erosion and short‐term drought are the two factors that limit the productivity of croplands in the red soil region of subtropical China. The objective of this study was to estimate the effects of conservation practices on hydraulic properties and root‐zone water dynamics of the soil. A 3‐year experiment was performed on a slope at Xianning. Four treatments were evaluated for their ability to reduce soil erosion and improve soil water conditions. Compared with no practices (CK) and living grass strips (GS), the application of polyacrylamide (PAM) significantly reduced soil crust formation during intense rainfall, whereas rice straw mulching (SM) completely abolished soil crust formation. The SM and PAM treatments improved soil water‐stable aggregates, with a redistribution of micro‐aggregates into macro‐aggregates. PAM and SM significantly increased the soil water‐holding capacity. These practices mitigated the degradation of the soil saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) during intense rainfalls. These methods increased soil water storage but with limited effects during heavy rainfalls in the wet period. In contrast, during the dry period, SM had the highest soil water storage, followed by PAM and CK. Grass strips had the lowest soil water storage because of the water uptake during the vigorous grass growth. A slight decline in the soil moisture resulted in a significant decrease in the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity (Ku) of the topsoil. Therefore, the hydraulic conductivity in the field is governed by soil moisture, and the remaining soil moisture is more important than improving soil properties to resist short‐term droughts. As a result, SM is the most effective management practice when compared with PAM and GS, although they all protect the soil hydraulic properties during wet periods. These results suggest that mulching is the best strategy for water management in erosion‐threatened and drought‐threatened red soils. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Severe soil erosion during a 3‐day exceptional rainfall event: combining modelling and field data for a fallow cereal field

Exceptional rainfall events cause significant losses of soil, although few studies have addressed the validation of model predictions at field scale during severe erosive episodes. In this study, we evaluate the predictive ability of the enhanced Soil Erosion and Redistribution Tool (SERT‐2014) model for mapping and quantifying soil erosion during the exceptional rainfall event (~235 mm) that affected the Central Spanish Pyrenees in October 2012. The capacity of the simulation model is evaluated in a fallow cereal field (1.9 ha) at a high spatial scale (1 × 1 m). Validation was performed with field‐quantified rates of soil loss in the rills and ephemeral gullies and also with a detailed map of soil redistribution. The SERT‐2014 model was run for the six rainfall sub‐events that made up the exceptional event, simulating the different hydrological responses of soils with maximum runoff depths ranging between 40 and 1017 mm. Predicted average and maximum soil erosion was 11 and 117 Mg ha^?1 event^?1, respectively. Total soil loss and sediment yield to the La Reina gully amounted to 16.3 and 9.0 Mg event^?1. These rates are in agreement with field estimations of soil loss of 20.0 Mg event^?1. Most soil loss (86%) occurred during the first sub‐event. Although soil accumulation was overestimated in the first sub‐event because of the large amount of detached soil, the enhanced SERT‐2014 model successfully predicted the different spatial patterns and values of soil redistribution for each sub‐event. Further research should focus on stream transport capacity. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Three‐dimensional shakedown solutions for anisotropic cohesive‐frictional materials under moving surface loads

Previous work on three‐dimensional shakedown analysis of cohesive‐frictional materials under moving surface loads has been entirely for isotropic materials. As a result, the effects of anisotropy, both elastic and plastic, of soil and pavement materials are ignored. This paper will, for the first time, develop three‐dimensional shakedown solutions to allow for the variation of elastic and plastic material properties with direction. Melan's lower‐bound shakedown theorem is used to derive shakedown solutions. In particular, a generalised, anisotropic Mohr–Coulomb yield criterion and cross‐anisotropic elastic stress fields are utilised to develop anisotropic shakedown solutions. It is found that shakedown solutions for anisotropic materials are dominated by Young's modulus ratio for the cases of subsurface failure and by shear modulus ratio for the cases of surface failure. Plastic anisotropy is mainly controlled by material cohesion ratio, the rise of which increases the shakedown limit until a maximum value is reached. The anisotropic shakedown limit varies with frictional coefficient, and the peak value may not occur for the case of normal loading only. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.