Spatial and temporal diversity for debris‐flow meteorological control in subarctic oceanic periglacial environments in Iceland

Slopes in fjord environments of Iceland are prone to debris‐flow initiation, responding to a wide variety of meteorological triggering factors, such as rain on snow, rapid snowmelt, long‐lasting rainfall or intense rainfall. If all fjord regions have similar debris flows with regards to their magnitude, their meteorological control is diverse both in space and in time. Debris flows in Northwest Iceland are triggered mostly by rain‐on‐snow and long‐lasting rainfall, while snowmelt is more characteristic in North Iceland, and rainfall has a clear impact in East Iceland. Most debris‐flow events occur on a single slope, and only a few are recorded at the same time in different regions. Observations of the threshold values underline the diversity of debris‐flow initiation, occurring with huge amounts of sudden water supply as well as with very moderate ones. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater-dependent ecology of the shoreline of the subtropical Lake St Lucia estuary

The ecology of the St Lucia estuary in South Africa is of unique international importance. During droughts the estuary experiences high salinities, with values above that of seawater. Ion-poor groundwater flowing into the estuary from prominent sand aquifers along its eastern shoreline forms low-salinity habitats for salt-sensitive biota. During droughts, plants and animals can take refuge in the groundwater discharge zone until the condition in the estuary regains tolerable salinity. Simulations of the groundwater discharge indicate that the flow can persist during droughts over at least a decade, and be of great important for the resilience of the estuary. Anthropogenic activities have reduced the river inflow and made the St Lucia estuary more sensitive to droughts. The groundwater has thereby become increasingly important for the estuary’s ecology. Protection of the groundwater discharge along the shoreline itself and actions to increase the groundwater recharge are therefore important management tasks.     

Iterated extended Kalman filter method for time-lapse seismic full-waveform inversion

Time-lapse seismic data is useful for identifying fluid movement and pressure and saturation changes in a petroleum reservoir and for monitoring of CO₂ injection. The focus of this paper is estimation of time-lapse changes with uncertainty quantification using full-waveform inversion. The purpose of also estimating the uncertainty in the inverted parameters is to be able to use the inverted seismic data quantitatively for updating reservoir models with ensemble-based methods. We perform Bayesian inversion of seismic waveform data in the frequency domain by combining an iterated extended Kalman filter with an explicit representation of the sensitivity matrix in terms of Green functions (acoustic approximation). Using this method, we test different strategies for inversion of the time-lapse seismic data with uncertainty. We compare the results from a sequential strategy (making a prior from the monitor survey using the inverted baseline survey) with a double difference strategy (inverting the difference between the monitor and baseline data). We apply the methods to a subset of the Marmousi2 P-velocity model. Both strategies performed well and relatively good estimates of the monitor velocities and the time-lapse differences were obtained. For the estimated time-lapse differences, the double difference strategy gave the lowest errors.     

Debris-flow release processes investigated through the analysis of multi-temporal LiDAR datasets in north-western Iceland

Debris flows are fast-moving gravity flows of poorly sorted rock and soil, mixed and saturated with water. Debris-flow initiation has been studied using empirical and experimental modelling, but the geomorphic changes, indicative of different triggering processes, are difficult to constrain with field observations only. We identify signatures to distinguish two different debris-flow release styles by integrating high-resolution multi-temporal remote sensing datasets and morphometric analysis. We analyse debris flows sourced above the town of Ísafjörður (Iceland). Two debris-flow triggering processes were previously hypothesised for this site: (i) slope failure, characterised by landslides evolving into debris flows; and (ii) the fire-hose effect, in which debris accumulated in pre-existing, steep-sided bedrock passages is transported by a surge of water. It is unknown which process dominates and determines the local risk. To investigate this question, we compare airborne LiDAR elevation models and aerial photographs collected in 2007 with similar data from 2013. We find that two new debris-flow tracks were created by slope failures. These are characterised by steep sliding surfaces and lateral leveed channels. Slope failure also occurred in two large, recently active tracks, creating the preparatory conditions for the fire-hose effect to mobilise existing debris. These tracks show alternating zones of fill and scour along their length, and debris stored below the source-area at rest angles >35°. Our approach allows us to identify and quantify the morphological changes produced by slope failure release process, which generated the preparatory conditions for the fire-hose effect. As debris flows are rarely observed in action and morphological changes induced by them are difficult to detect and monitor, the same approach could be applied to other landscapes to understand debris-flow initiation in the absence of other monitoring information, and can improve the identification of zones at risk in inhabited areas near hillslopes with potential for debris flows. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Considerations in Phase Estimation and Event Location Using Small-aperture Regional Seismic Arrays

The global monitoring of earthquakes and explosions at decreasing magnitudes necessitates the fully automatic detection, location and classification of an ever increasing number of seismic events. Many seismic stations of the International Monitoring System are small-aperture arrays designed to optimize the detection and measurement of regional phases. Collaboration with operators of mines within regional distances of the ARCES array, together with waveform correlation techniques, has provided an unparalleled opportunity to assess the ability of a small-aperture array to provide robust and accurate direction and slowness estimates for phase arrivals resulting from well-constrained events at sites of repeating seismicity. A significant reason for the inaccuracy of current fully-automatic event location estimates is the use of f?k slowness estimates measured in variable frequency bands. The variability of slowness and azimuth measurements for a given phase from a given source region is reduced by the application of almost any constant frequency band. However, the frequency band resulting in the most stable estimates varies greatly from site to site. Situations are observed in which regional P- arrivals from two sites, far closer than the theoretical resolution of the array, result in highly distinct populations in slowness space. This means that the f?k estimates, even at relatively low frequencies, can be sensitive to source and path-specific characteristics of the wavefield and should be treated with caution when inferring a geographical backazimuth under the assumption of a planar wavefront arriving along the great-circle path. Moreover, different frequency bands are associated with different biases meaning that slowness and azimuth station corrections (commonly denoted SASCs) cannot be calibrated, and should not be used, without reference to the frequency band employed. We demonstrate an example where fully-automatic locations based on a source-region specific fixed-parameter template are more stable than the corresponding analyst reviewed estimates. The reason is that the analyst selects a frequency band and analysis window which appears optimal for each event. In this case, the frequency band which produces the most consistent direction estimates has neither the best SNR or the greatest beam-gain, and is therefore unlikely to be chosen by an analyst without calibration data.