Optimized Seismic Threshold Monitoring – Part 2: Teleseismic Processing

v--vThis second paper (Part 2) pertaining to optimized site-specific threshold monitoring addresses the application of the method to regions covered by a teleseismic or a combined regional-teleseismic network. In the first paper (Part 1) we developed the method for the general case, and demonstrated its application to an area well-covered by a regional network (the Novaya Zemlya nuclear test site). In the present paper, we apply the method to the Indian and Pakistani nuclear test sites, and show results during the periods of nuclear testing by these two countries in May 1998. Since the coverage by regional stations in these areas is poor, an optimized approach requires the use of selected, high-quality stations at teleseismic distances.¶To optimize the threshold monitoring of these test sites, we use as calibration events either one of the nuclear explosions or a nearby earthquake. From analysis of the calibration events we derive values for array beamforming steering delays, filter bands, short-term averages (STA) lengths, phase travel times (P waves), and amplitude-magnitude relationships for each station. By applying these parameters, we obtain a monitoring capability of both test sites ranging from m_b 2.8-3.0 using teleseismic stations only. When including the nearby Nilore station to monitor the Indian tests, we show that the threshold can be reduced by about 0.4 magnitude units. In particular, we demonstrate that the Indian tests on 13 May, 1998, which were not detected by any known seismic station, must have corresponded to a magnitude (m_b) of less than 2.4.¶We also discuss the effect of a nearby aftershock sequence on the monitoring capability for the Pakistani test sites. Such an aftershock sequence occurred in fact on the day of the last Pakistani test (30 May, 1998), following a large (m_b 5.5) earthquake in Afghanistan located about 1100 km from the test site. We show that the threshold monitoring technique has sufficient resolution to suppress the signals from these interfering aftershocks without significantly affecting the true peak of the nuclear explosion on the threshold trace.     

Informal networks and resilience to climate change impacts: A collective approach to index insurance

This article contributes to the understanding of how to proceed with the development of index-insurance in order to reach extended population coverage with the insurance. The approach is applied to an example from a region in Tanzania. One of the main coping strategies that resource-poor households rely on to manage risks related to fluctuations in income flows is risk-sharing in informal networks. An informal network is an ideal way of managing idiosyncratic shocks, but once such shocks become covariate and affect whole communities, as is the case with most climate change impacts, informal networks become insufficient since the majority of risk-sharers will be affected by the shock at the same time. This paper proposes a collective approach to index-insurance in which the members of an informal network will be insured as one insurance taker. The paper raises a conceptual argument that targeting households through existing informal networks will remove a number of prevailing barriers to the take-up of insurance and consequently the approach has the potential to increase households’ resilience to climate change impacts. The policy implications of the conclusions are significant since the number of covariate shocks is predicted to increase with climate change.     

Bleaching of the post‐IR IRSL signal: new insights for feldspar luminescence dating

Post‐infrared (pIR) stimulated luminescence dating of sedimentary feldspar largely avoids the effects of anomalous fading that affect conventional infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) dating. However, optical resetting of pIR signals is more difficult than resetting the conventional IRSL signal, which may undermine the crucial assumption that pIR signals were effectively bleached upon deposition and burial of sediment grains. In this study, we quantify the bleaching properties of several pIR signals on various samples using laboratory‐simulated bleaching in full sunlight and water‐attenuated sunlight. Our data show that bleaching is most efficient under full spectrum conditions for all pIR signals and that pIR signals measured at elevated temperature are increasingly harder to bleach than IR and pIR signals measured at low temperature (e.g. IR at 50°C). All bleaching curves exhibit a very slow and steady decrease, indicating that a fixed un‐bleachable residual level cannot be reached within the 11 days of solar simulator exposure undertaken here. We show that the magnitude of a laboratory‐determined residual dose depends on the adopted bleaching protocol and cannot be used as a proxy for the dose that remains in the sample at the time of burial (remnant dose). Our data emphasize the importance of finding a balance between sufficient signal stability and a minimized contribution of a remnant dose when using pIR procedures for feldspar luminescence dating.     

Extreme weather impacts on freight railways in Europe

Four cases are studied in this assessment of how the harsh 2010 winter weather affected rail freight operations in Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Poland and also of the reactive behaviour rail managers mobilised to reduce the adverse outcomes. The results are utilised in a fifth case assessing the proportion of freight train delays in Finland during 2008–2010 by modelling the odds for freight train delays as a function of changes in met-states on the Finnish network and weather-induced infrastructure damage. The results show that rail operators were totally unprepared to deal with the powerful and cascading effects of three harsh weather elements—long spells of low temperatures, heavy snowfalls and strong winds—which affected them concurrently and shut down large swathes of European rail infrastructure and train operations. Rail traffic disruptions spread to downstream and upstream segments of logistics channels, causing shippers and logistics operators to move freight away from rail to road transfer. As a result, railways lost market share for high-value container cargo, revenues and long-term business prospects for international freight movement. Analyses of measures employed to mitigate the immediate damage show that managers improvised their ways of handling crises rather than drew on a priori contingency, i.e. fight-back programmes and crisis management skills. Modelling the co-variation between extreme weather and freight train delays in Finland during 2008–2010 revealed that 60 % of late arrivals were related to winter weather. Furthermore, the combined effect of temperatures below ?7 °C and 10–20 cm changes in snow depth coverage from 1 month to the next explained 62 % of the variation in log odds for freight train delays. Also, it has been shown that changes in the number of days with 10–20 cm snow depth coverage explained 66 % of the variation in late train arrivals, contributing to 626 min or 10.5 additional hours’ delay. Changes in the number of days with snowfalls over 5 mm accounted for 77 % variation in late train arrivals, implying that each additional day with this snowfall could contribute to 19.5 h’ delay. Finally, the combination of increased mean number of days with 5 mm snowfall and temperature below ?20 °C explained 79 % of the variation in late arrivals, contributing to 193 min or 3.25 h’ delay. All results were significant (p = 0.00).     

Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models

The uncertainties and sources of variation in projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems depend not only on the emission scenarios and climate models used for projecting future climates, but also on the impact models used, and the local soil and climatic conditions of the managed or unmanaged ecosystems under study. We addressed these uncertainties by applying different impact models at site, regional and continental scales, and by separating the variation in simulated relative changes in ecosystem performance into the different sources of uncertainty and variation using analyses of variance. The crop and ecosystem models used output from a range of global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs) projecting climate change over Europe between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 under the IPCC SRES scenarios. The projected impacts on productivity of crops and ecosystems included the direct effects of increased CO₂ concentration on photosynthesis. The variation in simulated results attributed to differences between the climate models were, in all cases, smaller than the variation attributed to either emission scenarios or local conditions. The methods used for applying the climate model outputs played a larger role than the choice of the GCM or RCM. The thermal suitability for grain maize cultivation in Europe was estimated to expand by 30–50% across all SRES emissions scenarios. Strong increases in net primary productivity (NPP) (35–54%) were projected in northern European ecosystems as a result of a longer growing season and higher CO₂ concentrations. Changing water balance dominated the projected responses of southern European ecosystems, with NPP declining or increasing only slightly relative to present-day conditions. Both site and continental scale models showed large increases in yield of rain-fed winter wheat for northern Europe, with smaller increases or even decreases in southern Europe. Site-based, regional and continental scale models showed large spatial variations in the response of nitrate leaching from winter wheat cultivation to projected climate change due to strong interactions with soils and climate. The variation in simulated impacts was smaller between scenarios based on RCMs nested within the same GCM than between scenarios based on different GCMs or between emission scenarios.     

Origin of ultramafic inclusions and megacrysts in a monchiquite dyke at Streap,inverness-shire,Scotland

Spinel lherzolite nodules, composed of olivine (Fo_88.7?89.2), clinepyroxene (6.5% Al₂O₃) and Al-rich spinel, and websterite nodules as well as megacrysts of clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene and magnetite occur in a monchiquite at Streap, Scotland. Petrographic data are given and microprobe analyses of coexisting phases in six spinel lherzolite nodules and one websterite nodule are reported, along with analyses of both types of pyroxene megacrysts. The spinel lherzolites show internal chemical homogeneity, and their mineral chemistries suggest equilibrium conditions of 1100–1200°C and 14–23 kb. The websterite nodules are, on the basis of mineral chemistry and petrography, considered to be crustal material. The megacrysts constitute a separate group, differing in composition from analogous phases in associated lherzolites and websterites as well as from monchiquite phenocryst phases, and show systematic chemical variations corresponding to low pressure crystal fractionation processes.     

Movement patterns of an endangered fishery species,Lithognathus lithognathus (Sparidae), and the role of no-take marine protected areas as a management tool

Understanding movement behaviour is essential for effective management of fishery species. Dart tags were used to study coastal movement patterns of white steenbras Lithognathus lithognathus, an overexploited seabream (Sparidae) in South Africa. In total, 6 962 fish (190–1 080 mm fork length) were tagged throughout the species’ distributional range, in four long-term fish-tagging programmes. The predominant behaviour recorded was residency, with relatively short-ranging movements. More than 60% of the 351 recaptured fish were recaptured within 1 km of their tagging site, some of which were at liberty in excess of three years. Most of the juveniles (93.9%), subadults (71.7%) and adults (64.0%) were recaptured within 10 km. Occasional long-distance movements of up to 800 km were recorded. Recapture distances were positively, but weakly, correlated with fish fork length (n = 257 fish measured at recapture; r² = 0.166, p < 0.001). Low levels of connectivity among coastal areas suggest that large-scale annual spawning migrations, as previously hypothesised for this species, are unlikely, which raises the possibility of multiple spawning sites. Seventy-seven percent of L. lithognathus tagged within three marine protected areas (MPAs) were recaptured within the same MPA, suggesting that area closures provide protection for L. lithognathus through the post-estuarine juvenile, subadult and adult life stages. We confirm that the country’s current network of coastal MPAs plays a vital role in sustaining this species, and suggest that additional closures, or otherwise substantial reductions in catch rates, are necessary for the species’ recovery.     

Influence of prey abundance and abiotic factors on the long-term home-range and movement dynamics of spotted grunter Pomadasys commersonnii in an intermittently open estuary

Long-term home-range and movement dynamics of spotted grunter Pomadasys commersonnii and the distribution of their dominant prey, the sandprawn Callichirus kraussi, were investigated in the intermittently open East Kleinemonde Estuary, South Africa. In addition, the effects of fish length, diel cycle, season and other abiotic factors on home range and area use were examined. Nine adult spotted grunter (326–489?mm total length) were tagged with acoustic transmitters, and their movements were studied by manual tracking on six consecutive days and nights during each of five tracking sessions from March to November 2004. In addition, movement patterns were recorded by stationary data-logging receivers. Kernel home ranges (95% utilised distribution) varied in size (mean: 76 797?m²?, range: 26 296–165 321?m²), but were all located in the lower one-third of the 3.6 km-long estuary. There was no effect of season, the diel cycle or fish length on the home-range estimates. However, the distribution of prey corresponded with the home-range distribution of tagged fish. Although sandprawn distribution was highly variable within and among transects and depth classes, sandprawns were most abundant in the lower region of the estuary, which corresponded to the home-range distribution of spotted grunter. Spatial distribution of prey appears to be a dominant factor influencing home-range parameters of this species within an intermittently open estuary.     

Chemical composition of hard- and softrock groundwaters from central Norway with special consideration of fluoride and Norwegian drinking water limits

Groundwaters from crystalline and metamorphic rocks (hardrocks) and from Quaternary deposits, i.e., alluvial and glacial deposits (softrocks) from the counties of Nord-Trøndelag and Sør-Trøndelag were analyzed for major and minor elements and ions including fluoride. The median concentration of F^– in water from the hardrock aquifers is 0.28 mg/l (14.7 eq/l) in contrast to water from softrock aquifers in which it is found to be 0.05 mg/1 (2.6 eq/l). More importantly, ca. 15% of the locations where water was abstracted from hardrock wells contain 1.5 mg/l (78.9 eq/l) F^– or more. Thus, 15% of all hardrock wells returned F^– results that are at or above the maximum recommended value for drinking water. Of the softrock wells, none are above 1 mg/l. Geologists would normally expect higher F^–contents in groundwaters derived from acid rocks, e.g., in granitic or gneissic areas. When comparing the host lithology with the observed F^–contents, however, no clear relationship between F^– content and lithology is visible. The highest observed F^– values actually occur in gneissic host rocks. However, wells drilled in amphibolites/greenstones, mica schists, calcareous rocks, and sedimentary rocks all returned some analytical results above 1.5 mg/l F^–. These results suggest that all hardrock wells drilled should be tested for F^– and the users informed about the results and advised to take any necessary precautions. When applying the recently proposed Norwegian drinking water limits to our data, 51% of all softrock well waters and 56% of all hardrock well waters are unfit for consumption without prior treatment, although we analyzed only for about half of the proposed elements/parameters. This result seriously questions the concept of fixed action levels—many of them with totally unproven health implications—for so many parameters/elements for hardrock groundwaters.     

Kandidater udgået fra Københavns Universitets Geografiske Institut 1966–71

Christensen, Leif: Faststående og omlejrede Saale-morånelersaflejringer. Et eksempel fra Szdding-området, Vestjylland. Geografisk Tidsskrift 82: 91–94. Copenhagen, Dec. 1, 1982.

In situ clayey till materials on the Skovbjerg Bakkea, western Jutland can be recognized by crop-marks revealing pseudomorphs of ice-wedge polygons in orthogonal, random orthogonal and hexagonal patterns. The tills inside these polygonal patterns have high shear-strength values as measured by vane tests. Remoulded fossil solifluction deposits of till origin reveal stripes and deformed polygonal patterns in the crops. High strength as measured by vane are encountered below fossil solifluction deposits 4 meters below ground.