The <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 3.1–4.7 earthquakes in the southern Baltic Sea and adjacent areas in 2000, 2001 and 2004

The area south and east of the Baltic Sea has very minor seismic activity. However, occasional events occur as illustrated by four events in recent years, which are analysed in this study: near Wittenburg, Germany, on May 19, 2000, M _w = 3.1, near Rostock, Germany, on July 21, 2001, M _w = 3.4 and in the Kaliningrad area, Russia, two events on September 21, 2004 with M _w = 4.6 and 4.7. Locations, magnitudes (M _L and M _w) and focal mechanisms were determined for the two events in Germany. Synthetic modeling resulted in a well-confined focal depth for the Kaliningrad events. The inversion of macroseismic observations provided simultaneous solutions of the location, focal depth and epicentral intensity. The maximum horizontal compressive stress orientations obtained from focal mechanism solutions, approximately N–S for the two German events and NNW–SSE for the Kaliningrad events, show a good agreement with the regionally oriented crustal stress field.     

A revised burial dose estimation procedure for optical dating of youngand modern-age sediments

The presence of genuinely zero-age or near-zero-age grains in modern-age and very young samples poses a problem for many existing burial dose estimation procedures used in optical (optically stimulated luminescence, OSL) dating. This difficulty currently necessitates consideration of relatively simplistic and statistically inferior age models. In this study, we investigate the potential for using modified versions of the statistical age models of Galbraith et al. [Galbraith, R.F., Roberts, R.G., Laslett, G.M., Yoshida, H., Olley, J.M., 1999. Optical dating of single and multiple grains of quartz from Jinmium rock shelter, northern Australia: Part I, experimental design and statistical models. Archaeometry 41, 339–364.] to provide reliable equivalent dose (D_e) estimates for young and modern-age samples that display negative, zero or near-zero D_e estimates. For this purpose, we have revised the original versions of the central and minimum age models, which are based on log-transformed D_e values, so that they can be applied to un-logged D_e estimates and their associated absolute standard errors. The suitability of these ‘un-logged’ age models is tested using a series of known-age fluvial samples deposited within two arroyo systems from the American Southwest. The un-logged age models provide accurate burial doses and final OSL ages for roughly three-quarters of the total number of samples considered in this study. Sensitivity tests reveal that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models are capable of producing accurate burial dose estimates for modern-age and very young (<350 yr) fluvial samples that contain (i) more than 20% of well-bleached grains in their D_e distributions, or (ii) smaller sub-populations of well-bleached grains for which the D_e values are known with high precision. Our results indicate that the original (log-transformed) versions of the central and minimum age models are still preferable for most routine dating applications, since these age models are better suited to the statistical properties of typical single-grain and multi-grain single-aliquot D_e datasets. However, the unique error properties of modern-age samples, combined with the problems of calculating natural logarithms of negative or zero-Gy D_e values, mean that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models currently offer the most suitable means of deriving accurate burial dose estimates for very young and modern-age samples.     

A flume experiment to examine underwater sound generation by flowing water

The hydrogeomorphology and ecology of rivers and streams has been subject of intensive research for many decades. However, hydraulically-generated acoustics have been mostly neglected, even though this physical attribute is a robust signal in fluvial ecosystems. Physical generated underwater sound can be used to quantify hydro-geomorphic processes, to differentiate among aquatic habitat types, and it has implications on the behavior of organisms. In this study, acoustic signals were quantified in a flume by varying hydro-geomorphic drivers and the related turbulence and bubble formation. The acoustic signals were recorded using two hydrophones and analyzed using a signal processing software, over 31 third-octave bands (20 Hz–20 kHz), and then combined in 10 octave bands. The analytical method allowed for a major improvement of the signal-to-noise ratio, therefore greatly reducing the uncertainty in our analyses. Water velocity, relative submergence, and flow obstructions were manipulated in the flume and the resultant acoustic signals recorded. Increasing relative submergence ratio and water velocity were important for reaching a turbulence threshold above which distinct sound levels were generated. Increases in water velocity resulted in increased sound levels over a wide range of frequencies. The increases in sound levels due to relative submergence of obstacles were most pronounced in midrange frequencies (125 Hz–2 kHz). Flow obstructions in running waters created turbulence and air bubble formation, which again produced specific sound signatures.     

Uplift rates defined by U-series and 14C ages of serpulid-encrusted speleothems from submerged caves near Siracusa,Sicily (Italy)

We have established a plausible rate of uplift near Siracusa in southeastern Sicily (Italy) over the last glacial–interglacial cycle using U-series ages of submerged speleothem calcite and ¹⁴C ages of calcite serpulid layers that encrust the speleothems during cave submergence. The precisely determined ages of these sea level benchmarks were compared with expected relative sea level position based on glacio-hydro-isostatic modeling to assess the rate of uplift in this region. When combined with the age of various late Holocene archaeological sites that have been recently described and characterized in terms of their functional position relative to sea level these data collectively define a rate of uplift ≤0.4 mm a^?1 along this portion of the Sicilian coastline. These results are consistent with an age assignment of marine isotope stage (MIS) 5.3 or 5.5 for the Akradina terrace, which in turn places temporal constraints on paleoshorelines above and below this level.     

New model simulations of the global atmospheric electric circuit driven by thunderstorms and electrified shower clouds: The roles of lightning and sprites

Several processes acting below, in and above thunderstorms and in electrified shower clouds drive upward currents which close through the global atmospheric electric circuit. These are all simulated in a novel way using the software package PSpice. A moderate negative cloud-to-ground lightning discharge from the base of a thunderstorm increases the ionospheric potential above the thundercloud by 0.0013%. Assuming the ionosphere to be an equipotential surface, this discharge increases the current flowing in the global circuit and the fair-weather electric field also by 0.0013%. A moderate positive cloud-to-ground lightning discharge from the bottom of a thunderstorm decreases the ionospheric potential by 0.014%. Such a discharge may trigger a sprite, causing the ionospheric potential to decrease by . The time scales for the recovery of the ionospheric potential are shown to be , which is of the same order as the CR time constant for the global circuit. Knowing the global average rate of lightning discharges, it is found that negative cloud-to-ground discharges increase the ionospheric potential by only 4%, and that positive cloud-to-ground discharges reduce it by 3%. Thus, overall, lightning contributes only 1%—an almost insignificant proportion—to maintaining the high potential of the ionosphere. It is concluded that the net upward current to the ionosphere due to lightning is only . Further, it is concluded that conduction and convection currents associated with “batteries” within thunderclouds and electrified shower clouds contribute essentially equally ( each) to maintaining the ionospheric potential.     

The Rock–Water–Ice Topographic Gravity Field Model RWI_TOPO_2015 and Its Comparison to a Conventional Rock-Equivalent Version

RWI_TOPO_2015 is a new high-resolution spherical harmonic representation of the Earth’s topographic gravitational potential that is based on a refined Rock–Water–Ice (RWI) approach. This method is characterized by a three-layer decomposition of the Earth’s topography with respect to its rock, water, and ice masses. To allow a rigorous separate modeling of these masses with variable density values, gravity forward modeling is performed in the space domain using tesseroid mass bodies arranged on an ellipsoidal reference surface. While the predecessor model RWI_TOPO_2012 was based on the \(5'\times 5'\) global topographic database DTM2006.0 (Digital Topographic Model 2006.0), the new RWI model uses updated height information of the \(1'\times 1'\) Earth2014 topography suite. Moreover, in the case of RWI_TOPO_2015, the representation in spherical harmonics is extended to degree and order 2190 (formerly 1800). Beside a presentation of the used formalism, the processing for RWI_TOPO_2015 is described in detail, and the characteristics of the resulting spherical harmonic coefficients are analyzed in the space and frequency domain. Furthermore, this paper focuses on a comparison of the RWI approach to the conventionally used rock-equivalent method. For this purpose, a consistent rock-equivalent version REQ_TOPO_2015 is generated, in which the heights of water and ice masses are condensed to the constant rock density. When evaluated on the surface of the GRS80 ellipsoid (Geodetic Reference System 1980), the differences of RWI_TOPO_2015 and REQ_TOPO_2015 reach maximum amplitudes of about 1 m, 50 mGal, and 20 mE in terms of height anomaly, gravity disturbance, and the radial–radial gravity gradient, respectively. Although these differences are attenuated with increasing height above the ellipsoid, significant magnitudes can even be detected in the case of the satellite altitudes of current gravity field missions. In order to assess their performance, RWI_TOPO_2015, REQ_TOPO_2015, and RWI_TOPO_2012 are validated against independent gravity information of current global geopotential models, clearly demonstrating the attained improvements in the case of the new RWI model.     

How do hydrologic modeling decisions affect the portrayal of climate change impacts?

End users face a range of subjective decisions when evaluating climate change impacts on hydrology, but the importance of these decisions is rarely assessed. In this paper, we evaluate the implications of hydrologic modelling choices on projected changes in the annual water balance, monthly simulated processes, and signature measures (i.e. metrics that quantify characteristics of the hydrologic catchment response) under a future climate scenario. To this end, we compare hydrologic changes computed with four different model structures – whose parameters have been obtained using a common calibration strategy – with hydrologic changes computed with a single model structure and parameter sets from multiple options for different calibration decisions (objective function, local optima, and calibration forcing dataset). Results show that both model structure selection and the parameter estimation strategy affect the direction and magnitude of projected changes in the annual water balance, and that the relative effects of these decisions are basin dependent. The analysis of monthly changes illustrates that parameter estimation strategies can provide similar or larger uncertainties in simulations of some hydrologic processes when compared with uncertainties coming from model choice. We found that the relative effects of modelling decisions on projected changes in catchment behaviour depend on the signature measure analysed. Furthermore, parameter sets with similar performance, but located in different regions of the parameter space, provide very different projections for future catchment behaviour. More generally, the results obtained in this study prompt the need to incorporate parametric uncertainty in multi‐model frameworks to avoid an over‐confident portrayal of climate change impacts. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Event-based deep drainage and percolation dynamics in Vertosols and Chromosols

The quantification of percolation processes and deep drainage rates in cracking clays is challenging due to the existence of multiple flow pathways, including desiccation crack networks, and the effect of variability in antecedent soil moisture and rain event properties. While most previous research on this topic focuses on long-term average rates, this study focusses on inter-event dynamics. The study uses data from soil moisture sensors distributed vertically down 4 m profiles of Vertosol and Chromosol soils across 13 sites over an area of approximately 20 km². The objectives were to estimate the temporal and spatial variability of deep drainage rates and to investigate the effect of antecedent soil moisture conditions and rain event properties on deep drainage rates and percolation dynamics. 35 deep drainage events over a 40-month period contributed 78 % of the total deep drainage of 254 mm at 4 m depth. Average deep drainage estimates were about 15 % (ranging from 0 – 80 % between sites) of total rainfall and irrigation in the Vertosol and 8% (0 – 24 %) in the Chromosol. The event water travel times at 4 m depth were 0.25 – 38 hr and 14 – 39 hr in the Vertosol and Chromosol respectively. The event deep drainage rates averaged across sites were associated with event rainfall volumes (linear regression R² = 0.40), with the effect of antecedent conditions evident only when looking at inter-site differences. The percolation response time was strongly associated with higher rainfall intensities (R² = 0.33) with no evidence from the linear regression of an antecedent moisture effect.