Application of frequency ratio,statistical index,and weights-of-evidence models and their comparison in landslide susceptibility mapping in Central Nepal Himalaya

The Mugling–Narayanghat road section falls within the Lesser Himalaya and Siwalik zones of Central Nepal Himalaya and is highly deformed by the presence of numerous faults and folds. Over the years, this road section and its surrounding area have experienced repeated landslide activities. For that reason, landslide susceptibility zonation is essential for roadside slope disaster management and for planning further development activities. The main goal of this study was to investigate the application of the frequency ratio (FR), statistical index (SI), and weights-of-evidence (WoE) approaches for landslide susceptibility mapping of this road section and its surrounding area. For this purpose, the input layers of the landslide conditioning factors were prepared in the first stage. A landslide inventory map was prepared using earlier reports, aerial photographs interpretation, and multiple field surveys. A total of 438 landslide locations were detected. Out these, 295 (67 %) landslides were randomly selected as training data for the modeling using FR, SI, and WoE models and the remaining 143 (33 %) were used for the validation purposes. The landslide conditioning factors considered for the study area are slope gradient, slope aspect, plan curvature, altitude, stream power index, topographic wetness index, lithology, land use, distance from faults, distance from rivers, and distance from highway. The results were validated using area under the curve (AUC) analysis. From the analysis, it is seen that the FR model with a success rate of 76.8 % and predictive accuracy of 75.4 % performs better than WoE (success rate, 75.6 %; predictive accuracy, 74.9 %) and SI (success rate, 75.5 %; predictive accuracy, 74.6 %) models. Overall, all the models showed almost similar results. The resultant susceptibility maps can be useful for general land use planning.     

Decrease of size of hummocks with downstream distance in the rockslide-debris avalanche deposit at Iriga volcano, Philippines: similarities with Japanese avalanches

A morphometric investigation of the longitudinal distribution of hummocks at the southeastern foot of Iriga volcano in the Philippines showed that hummock size decreases away from the volcano. Aerial photographs and GIS analysis revealed that the size–distance relationship can be expressed as the exponential function A?=?α exp (?β D), where A is the area of a hummock and D is its distance from the source. This relationship is the same as that observed previously for freely spreading debris avalanches in Japan, including two avalanches at Bandai volcano. This size–distance relationship provides information about the physical characteristics of the event: the α value shows a strong correlation with the volume of the collapsed mass of the volcanic edifice, and the β value shows a strong correlation with the coefficient of friction of the debris avalanche. Thus, morphometric analysis of hummocks created by a volcanic avalanche illuminates both the physical properties of the volcanic body and the mobility of the avalanche. For the Iriga debris avalanche, the observed longitudinal hummock distribution is clearly a function of the volume of the collapsed mass and the coefficient of friction of the avalanche. The relationships so defined appear to be a geometric effect related to the areal extent of freely spreading hummocky avalanche deposits, especially their longitudinal dimensions.     

Crustal strain observation for nine years with a laser strainmeter in Kobe, Japan

We carried out precise crustal strain observation using a laser strainmeter system at the Rokko-Takao station in Kobe, Japan from 1989 to 1997. The long-term strain record is characterized by remarkable annual changes of the order of 2–3×10⁻⁶ and linear strain accumulation of −4.4×10⁻⁷/year (in contraction). The annual strain changes are inversely proportional to temperature changes that precede the strain changes by about 1 month. The apparent annual strain changes were mainly caused by refractive-index changes in the light path due to the ambient temperature changes. After eliminating the annual temperature effect, linear strain accumulation is corrected to be −6.3−6.7×10⁻⁷/year. Residual strains show the oscillating behavior, in which the oscillating cycle seems to become shorter and shorter as time goes by. During the period, a destructive earthquake of M=7.2 occurred near the Kobe City on 17 January 1995. We investigated the oscillating behavior in secular variations of ground-strains by introducing the deterministic approach of earthquake prediction to search for the “critical point” of the occurrence of an earthquake in the extended power law equation. However, we could not obtain a unique solution to determine eight unknown parameters including the “critical point”. This may be mainly due to lack of data for 4 months from August to November in 1994 by the failure of the laser source before the occurrence of earthquake on 17 January 1995. After removing environmental effects and tidal components, we carefully re-examined strain changes in 7 days and 1 day before the occurrence of the earthquake, but we could not detect anomalous strain changes exceeding 1×10⁻⁸ before the earthquake.     

Non-local memory effects of the electromotive force by fluid motion with helicity and two-dimensional periodicity

In mean-field dynamo theory, the electromotive force term 〈u′ × B′〉 due to small-scale fields connects the small-scale magnetic field with the large-scale field. This term is usually approximated as the α-effect, assumed to be instantaneous in time and local in space. However, the approximation is valid only when the magnetic Reynolds number Rm is much less than unity, and is inappropriate when Rm ? 1, which is the condition satisfied in the Earth's core or solar convection zone. We introduce a function φ _qr as a non-local and non-instantaneous generalization of the usual α-effect and examine its behaviour as a function of Rm in the range 1/64 ≤ Rm ≤ 10 for a kinematic dynamo model. We use the flow of G.O. Roberts 1972 Roberts, GO. 1972. Dynamo action of fluid motions with two-dimensional periodicity. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. London Ser. A, 271: 411–454. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] (Phil, Trans. Roy. Soc. London Ser. A, 1972, 271, 411–454), which is steady and has non-zero helicities and two-dimensional periodicity. As a result, we identify three regions in Rm space according to the behaviour of the function φ _qr : (i) Rm ? 1/4, where the function φ _qr is local and instantaneous and can be approximated by the traditional α and β effects, (ii) 1/4 ? Rm ? 4, where the deviation from the traditional α and β effects increases and non-localness and non-instantaneousness increase, and (iii) Rm ? 4, where boundary layers develop fully and non-localness and non-instantaneousness are prominent. We show that the non-local memory effect for Rm ? 4 strongly affects the dynamo action and explains an observed augmentation of the growth rate in the dispersion relation. The results imply that the non-local memory effect of the electromotive force should be important in the geodynamo or the solar dynamo.     

Zonal variations in abundance and body length of chaetognaths in the 140°E seasonal ice zone during the austral summer of 2001/02

Time-series observations of chaetognaths were carried out during four cruises along the 140°E transect between 61°S and 66°28′S from November to March in the 2001/02 austral summer. Three species – Eukrohnia hamata, Sagitta gazellae and Sagitta marri – occurred in the samples between 0 and 150 m. E. hamata was the most dominant species comprising between 89.6 and 100% of the chaetognath population, followed by S. gazellae (0–5.7%). There were large differences in the abundance and size frequency distribution of body length of E. hamata between the north and south of the Southern Boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (SB-ACC) which was located between 64°S and 65°S. For E. hamata, low abundance and large sized animals (22–24 mm) occurred south of the SB-ACC. A possible reason could be that the breeding season in waters north of the SB-ACC may be early spring and summer. On the other hand, low reproduction was recognized by low the abundance of E. hamata and few occurrences of juveniles south of the SB-ACC (65°S). The result of a general comparison suggests that the abundance of chaetognaths along the 140°E transect has decreased during the 20 years since 1983.     

Distribution of nitrous oxide dissolved in water masses in the eastern subtropical North Pacific and its origin inferred from isotopomer analysis

N₂O concentration and its isotopomer ratios were measured over a wide area from San Diego to Honolulu in the eastern subtropical North Pacific (ESNP). Waters in the study area had an N₂O maximum (38.2–50.5 nmol kg^?1) at 600–1000 m depth, which is similar to the profiles obtained previously in other areas in the North Pacific. We separated the seawater into five water masses (two for the surface layer, two for the middle layer, and one for the deep layer) and deduced N₂O production–consumption mechanisms in each water body by use of N₂O isotopomer ratios. The results showed that the mechanisms differ slightly among water masses. In the “coastal” surface layer, N₂O is produced by nitrification (NH₂OH oxidation). In the “open ocean” surface layer, it is produced mainly by nitrifier denitrification and to a lesser extent by nitrification under substrate-limited conditions. In both “upwelling” and “open ocean” middle layers it is produced mainly by denitrification and to a lesser extent by nitrifier denitrification. It is also partly reduced. In the deep layer, it is produced predominantly by denitrification with partial reduction. In this way, isotopomers aid elucidation of production–consumption mechanisms of N₂O in the sea even though the mechanisms cannot always be ascertained.