Performance of GCMs for seasonal prediction over India��a case study for 2009 monsoon

The 2009 drought in India was one of the major droughts that the country faced in the last 100?years. This study describes the anomalous features of 2009 summer monsoon and examines real-time seasonal predictions made using six general circulation models (GCMs). El Ni?o conditions evolved in the Pacific Ocean, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian Ocean were warmer than normal during monsoon 2009. The observed circulation patterns indicate a weaker monsoon in that year over India with weaker than normal convection over the Bay of Bengal and Indian landmass. Skill of the GCMs during hindcast period shows that neither these models simulate the observed interannual variability nor their multi-model ensemble (MME) significantly improves the skill of monsoon rainfall predictions. Except for one model used in this study, the real-time predictions with longer lead (2- and 1-month lead) made for the 2009 monsoon season did not provide any indication of a highly anomalous monsoon. However, with less lead time (zero lead), most of the models as well as the MME had provided predictions of below normal rainfall for that monsoon season. This study indicates that the models could not predict the 2009 drought over India due to the use of less warm SST anomalies over the Pacific in the longer lead runs. Hence, it is proposed that the uncertainties in SST predictions (the lower boundary condition) have to be represented in the model predictions of summer monsoon rainfall over India.     

Spatial changes in volcanic and seismic activity prior to great earthquakes

Spatial relationship between volcanism and seismicity prior to the occurrence of several great interplate earthquakes in the circum Pacific area has been examined in order to understand the process of underthrusting in detail. The locations of the epicenters of the great earthquakes have been examined in terms of locations of concentrated volcanic and seismic activity in a short time period in order to determine if there is any relationship between these activities, and whether such relationships can be used to refine the underthrusting model. The study shows that in most cases, (1) there is no volcanic activity in the vicinity of the epicenter of the great earthquake and (2) maximum volcanic activity is localized, i.e., volcanoes adjacent to one another exhibit considerable activity in a short time period. Very little systematic spatial relationship between these three parameters is observed although in most cases, there is no volcanic activity at the time of maximum earthquake activity. Locations of active volcanoes and earthquake activity, during the five years prior to the occurrence of the great earthquake, do not appear to be a guide to the epicenter of the great earthquake. This study therefore suggests that although there is temporal relationship between the occurrence of maximum volcanic and seismic activity and the occurrence of great earthquake, there appears to be no systematic spatial relationship between these three parameters.     

Correlations between algae and water quality: factors driving eutrophication in Lake Taihu, China

Rapid population increase and economic growth in eastern China has lead to the degradation of many water bodies in the region, such as Lake Taihu, the third largest freshwater lake in China. Using data from recent investigations, the correlations between algae (measured as chlorophyll-a) and water quality indices in Lake Taihu were described by multivariate statistical analyses, and the key driving factors for the lake eutrophication were identified by principal component analysis. Results revealed strong spatiotemporal variation in the correlations between algae and water quality indices, suggesting that the limiting factor for the dominant algae growth depends on seasonality and location and it is necessary to reduce both nitrogen and phosphorus inputs for a long-term eutrophication control in this hyper-eutrophic system. Water temperature was another important controlling factor for algal growth in the lake. Using principal component analysis, nutrient contaminations from anthropogenic and natural inputs were identified as the key driving factor for the water quality problems of the lake. Moreover, five principal components were extracted and characterized with high spatial and seasonal variations in Lake Taihu. The key driving factors were believed to influence spatial variations including heavily polluted areas located in the northern and northwestern parts of the lake, where many manufacturing factories were built and wastewater from domestic and industrial plants was discharged. Based on this analysis, attention should be paid to effective land management, industrial wastewater treatment, and macrophytic vegetation restoration to reduce the pollutant loads and improve water quality. Principal component analysis was found to be a useful and effective method to reduce the number of analytical parameters without notably impairing the quality of information in this study.     

Surface waves in a micropolar elastic solid containing voids

The present paper investigates the effect of voids on the propagation of surface waves in a homogeneous micropolar elastic solid medium which contains a distribution of vacuous pores (voids). The general theory for surface wave propagation in micropolar elastic media containing voids has been presented. Particular cases of surface waves (Rayleigh’s, Love’s and Stoneley’s) in micropolar media which contain vacuous pores have been deduced from the above general theory. Discussions have been made in each case to highlight the effect of voids and micropolar character of the material medium separately. Their joint effect has also been studied in details. Modulation of Rayleigh wave velocity has been studied numerically. It is observed that Love waves are not affected by the presence of voids.     

Mineralogy, chemistry and genesis of Nishikhal manganese ores of South Orissa, India

Manganese ores of Nishikhal occur as distinctly conformable bands in the khondalite suite of rocks belonging to the Precambrian Eastern Ghats complex of south Orissa, India. Manganese minerals recorded are cryptomelane, romanechite, pyrolusite, with minor amounts of jacobsite, hausmannite, braunite, lithiophorite, birnessite and pyrophanite. Goethite, graphite, hematite and magnetite are the other opaque minerals and quartz, orthoclase, garnet, kaolinite, apatite, collophane, fibrolite, zircon, biotite and muscovite are the gangue minerals associated with these ores. The mineral chemistry of some of the phases, as well as the modes of association of phosphorous in these ores have been established. The occurrence of well-defined bands of manganese ore; co-folding of manganese ore bands and associated metasedimentary country rocks; the min-eral assemblage of spessartite-sillimanite-braunite-jacobsite-hausmannite; the geochemical association of Mn-Ba-Co-Ni-Zn together with the Si versus Al and Na versus Mg plots of the manganese ores suggest that the Nishikhal deposit is a metamorphosed Precambrian lacustrine deposit. Continental weathering appears to be the source for manganese and iron. After deposition and probable diagenesis, the manganese-rich sediments were metamorphosed along with conformable psammitic and pelitic sediments under granulite facies conditions, and subsequently underwent supergene enrichment to produce the present deposit. Received: 14 March 1995 / Accepted: 11 April 1996     

On the Predictability of Northeast Monsoon Rainfall over South Peninsular India in General Circulation Models

In this study the predictability of northeast monsoon (Oct–Nov–Dec) rainfall over peninsular India by eight general circulation model (GCM) outputs was analyzed. These GCM outputs (forecasts for the whole season issued in September) were compared with high-resolution observed gridded rainfall data obtained from the India Meteorological Department for the period 1982–2010. Rainfall, interannual variability (IAV), correlation coefficients, and index of agreement were examined for the outputs of eight GCMs and compared with observation. It was found that the models are able to reproduce rainfall and IAV to different extents. The predictive power of GCMs was also judged by determining the signal-to-noise ratio and the external error variance; it was noted that the predictive power of the models was usually very low. To examine dominant modes of interannual variability, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was also conducted. EOF analysis of the models revealed they were capable of representing the observed precipitation variability to some extent. The teleconnection between the sea surface temperature (SST) and northeast monsoon rainfall was also investigated and results suggest that during OND the SST over the equatorial Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, the central Pacific Ocean (over Nino3 region), and the north and south Atlantic Ocean enhances northeast monsoon rainfall. This observed phenomenon is only predicted by the CCM3v6 model.     

Quantification of longitudinal dispersion by upscaling Brownian motion of tracer displacement in a 3D pore-scale network model

We present a 3D network model with particle tracking to upscale 3D Brownian motion of non-reactive tracer particles subjected to a velocity field in the network bonds, representing both local diffusion and convection. At the intersections of the bonds (nodes) various jump conditions are implemented. Within the bonds, two different velocity profiles are used. At the network scale the longitudinal dispersion of the particles is quantified through the coefficient D_L, for which we evaluate a number of methods already known in the literature. Additionally, we introduce a new method for derivation of D_L based on the first-arrival times distribution (FTD). To validate our particle tracking method, we simulate Taylor’s classical experiments in a single tube. Subsequently, we carry out network simulations for a wide range of the characteristic Péclet number Pe_? to assess the various methods for obtaining D_L. Using the new method, additional simulations have been carried out to evaluate the choice of nodal jump conditions and velocity profile, in combination with varying network heterogeneity. In general, we conclude that the presented network model with particle tracking is a robust tool to obtain the macroscopic longitudinal dispersion coefficient. The new method to determine D_L from the FTD statistics works for the full range of Pe_?, provided that for large Pe_? a sufficiently large number of particles is used. Nodal jump conditions should include molecular diffusion and allow jumps in the upstream direction, and a parabolic velocity profile in the tubes must be implemented. Then, good agreement with experimental evidence is found for the full range of Pe_?, including increased D_L for increased porous medium heterogeneity.     

Improving assessment of groundwater-resource sustainability with deterministic modelling: a case study of the semi-arid Musi sub-basin, South India

Since the 1990s, Indian farmers, supported by the government, have partially shifted from surface-water to groundwater irrigation in response to the uncertainty in surface-water availability. Water-management authorities only slowly began to consider sustainable use of groundwater resources as a prime concern. Now, a reliable integration of groundwater resources for water-allocation planning is needed to prevent aquifer overexploitation. Within the 11,000-km² Musi River sub-basin (South India), human interventions have dramatically impacted the hard-rock aquifers, with a water-table drop of 0.18 m/a over the period 1989–2004. A fully distributed numerical groundwater model was successfully implemented at catchment scale. The model allowed two distinct conceptualizations of groundwater availability to be quantified: one that was linked to easily quantified fluxes, and one that was more expressive of long-term sustainability by taking account of all sources and sinks. Simulations showed that the latter implied 13 % less available groundwater for exploitation than did the former. In turn, this has major implications for the existing water-allocation modelling framework used to guide decision makers and water-resources managers worldwide.