Comparison of Two Nonstationary Flood Frequency Analysis Methods within the Context of the Variable Regime in the Representative Polish Rivers

Changes in river flow regime resulted in a surge in the number of methods of non-stationary flood frequency analysis. Common assumption is the time-invariant distribution function with time-dependent location and scale parameters while the shape parameters are time-invariant. Here, instead of location and scale parameters of the distribution, the mean and standard deviation are used. We analyse the accuracy of the two methods in respect to estimation of time-dependent first two moments, time-invariant skewness and time-dependent upper quantiles. The method of maximum likelihood (ML) with time covariate is confronted with the Two Stage (TS) one (combining Weighted Least Squares and L-moments techniques). Comparison is made by Monte Carlo simulations. Assuming parent distribution which ensures the asymptotic superiority of ML method, the Generalized Extreme Value distribution with various values of linearly changing in time first two moments, constant skewness, and various time-series lengths are considered. Analysis of results indicates the superiority of TS methods in all analyzed aspects. Moreover, the estimates from TS method are more resistant to probability distribution choice, as demonstrated by Polish rivers’ case studies.     

Natural Radioactivity at the Sin Quyen Iron-Oxide-Copper-Gold Deposit in North Vietnam

The field radiometric and laboratory measurements were performed at the Sin Quyen copper deposit in North Vietnam. The field gamma-ray spectrometry indicated the concentration of uranium ranging from 5.5 to 87 ppm, thorium from 5.6 to 33.2 ppm, and potassium from 0.3 to 4.7%. The measured dose rates ranged from 115 to 582 nGy/h, the highest doses being at the copper ore. Concentrations in the solid samples were in the range of 20–1700 Bq/kg for uranium, 20–92.7 Bq/kg for thorium, and 7–1345 Bq/kg for potassium. The calculated doses were from 22 to 896 nGy/h; both measured and calculated dose rates are mostly related to uranium. Concentrations of radium in water samples were below 0.17 Bq/L. Uranium in water samples was significantly higher than the hydrogeological background; the maximum of 13 Bq/L was at the waste zone pool, but neither radium nor uranium were present in tap water. Radon concentration in the dwelling air was from 42 to 278 Bq/m³ for ²²²Rn and from 8 to 193 Bq/m³ for ²²⁰Rn. The estimated committed dose rates were principally related to ²²²Rn concentration and ranged from 1.1 to 8.1 mSv/y.     

Very Low Frequency Electromagnetic Induction Surveys in Hydrogeological Investigations; Case Study from Poland

In 2011, a geophysical survey was carried out in the surroundings of the Jagiellonian University in Cracow, using a Very Low Frequency method. The measurements were designed to determine the reason of frequent flooding of the lowest level of the building. The main objective of the study was to find out from where and in which way the rainwater seeps into the building and how this problem can be solved in the least invasive manner. The aim of geophysical methods was also to provide necessary information that will enable the construction of a hydro-geological model of the local environment. The interpretation revealed the presence of a sandy gutter surrounded by impermeable clay. There is a big resistivity contrast between those layers. Their location and approximate dimensions were determined.     

The effect of stratification and compressibility on anelastic convection in a rotating plane layer

We study the effect of stratification and compressibility on the threshold of convection and the heat transfer by developed convection in the nonlinear regime in the presence of strong background rotation. We consider fluids both with constant thermal conductivity and constant thermal diffusivity. The fluid is confined between two horizontal planes with both boundaries being impermeable and stress-free. An asymptotic analysis is performed in the limits of weak compressibility of the medium and rapid rotation (τ^?1/12???|θ|???1, where τ is the Taylor number and θ is the dimensionless temperature jump across the fluid layer). We find that the properties of compressible convection differ significantly in the two cases considered. Analytically, the correction to the characteristic Rayleigh number resulting from small compressibility of the medium is positive in the case of constant thermal conductivity of the fluid and negative for constant thermal diffusivity. These results are compared with numerical solutions for arbitrary stratification. Furthermore, by generalizing the nonlinear theory of Julien and Knobloch [Fully nonlinear three-dimensional convection in a rapidly rotating layer. Phys. Fluids 1999, 11, 1469–1483] to include the effects of compressibility, we study the Nusselt number in both cases. In the weakly nonlinear regime we report an increase of efficiency of the heat transfer with the compressibility for fluids with constant thermal diffusivity, whereas if the conductivity is constant, the heat transfer by a compressible medium is more efficient than in the Boussinesq case only if the specific heat ratio γ is larger than two.     

Combined analysis of precipitation and water deficit for drought hazard assessment

Abstract

The combined analysis of precipitation and water scarcity was done with the use of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), developed as a monthly, two-variable SPI-SRI indicator to identify different classes of hydrometeorological conditions. Stochastic analysis of a long-term time series (1966–2005) of monthly SPI-SRI indicator values was performed using a first-order Markov chain model. This provided characteristics of regional features of drought formation, evolution and persistence, as well as tools for statistical long-term drought hazard prediction. The study was carried out on two subbasins of the Odra River (Poland) of different orography and land use: the mountainous Nysa K?odzka basin and the lowland, agricultural Prosna basin. Classification obtained with the SPI-SRI indicator was compared with the output from the NIZOWKA model that provided identification of hydrological drought events including drought duration and deficit volume. Severe and long-duration droughts corresponded to SPI-SRI Class 3 (dry meteorological and dry hydrological), while severe but short-term droughts (lasting less than 30 days) corresponded to SPI-SRI Class 4 (wet meteorological and dry hydrological). The results confirm that, in Poland, meteorologically dry conditions often shift to hydrologically dry conditions within the same month, droughts rarely last longer than 2 months and two separate drought events can be observed within the same year.     

Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland

Abstract

Discharge in the Warta River in Poland has been analysed based on long series of measurements at the Gorzów Wielkopolski gauge station (covering the whole catchment area) and at Poznań (middle and upper catchment area), and the Note? River is characterized by the gauge station at Nowe Drezdenko. The annual mean discharge of the Warta River for the period 1981–2010 was equal to the average value for the last 163 years (209 m³ s^-1), and there was no significant change in comparison with the ratio of runoff in the summer and winter half-years. In the driest region of Poland, the climate has been described on the basis of precipitation and air temperature. The annual mean precipitation for 1981–2010 (544 mm) in the Warta River catchment area was the same as that for the period 1848–2010. The precipitation has been increasing in spring and winter, and decreasing in summer. There is a positive and very significant correlation (r = 0.705) between the annual discharge and annual precipitation totals. The annual mean air temperature has risen by 0.6°C between the periods 1848–1980 and 1981–2010.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Ilnicki, P., Farat, R., Górecki, K., and Lewandowski, P., 2014. Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (6), 1117–1134. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.831979     

Analysis and usage of linear relationships between the magnetic field components recorded by INTERMAGNET

An analysis of linear relationships between the ground-level components of the Earth’s magnetic field measured at different sites is a relatively new topic compared to the analysis of data at a single location. The data collected by the INTERMAGNET observation network provide perfect set of data to which this analysis can be used. An important tool in this analysis may be developing a method of determination of the impulse response for linear systems in the time domain. An advantage of calculations in the time domain over the generally known and applied methods in the frequency domain is the possibility of determining prediction of output signals. By that, simultaneously with the analysis of linear relationships, a tool for recovering missing records in incomplete observation data is obtained. Filling-in the missing data may increase interest and possibility of using the observational data by researchers experimenting with the analysis in the frequency domain where gaps in data records are a significant limitation.     

An approach to response-based reliability analysis of quasi-linear Errors-in-Variables models

The paper presents an approach to internal reliability analysis of observation systems known as Errors-in-Variables (EIV) models with parameters estimated by the method of least squares. Such problems are routinely treated by total least squares adjustment, or orthogonal regression. To create a suitable environment for derivations in the analysis, a general nonlinear form of such EIV models is assumed, based on a traditional adjustment method of condition equations with unknowns, also known as the Gauss–Helmert model. However, in order to apply the method of reliability analysis based on the approach to response assessment in systems with correlated observations, presented in the earlier work of this author, it was necessary to confine the considerations to a quasi-linear form of the Gauss–Helmert model, representing quasi-linear EIV models. This made it possible to obtain a linear disturbance/response relationship needed in that approach. Several specific cases of quasi-linear EIV models are discussed. The derived formulas are consistent with those already functioning for standard least squares adjustment problems. The analysis shows that, as could be expected, the average level of response-based reliability for such EIV models under investigation is lower than that for the corresponding standard linear models. For EIV models with homoscedastic and uncorrelated observations, the relationship between the average reliability indices for the independent and the dependent variables is formulated for multiple regression and coordinate transformations. Numerical examples for these two applications are provided to illustrate this analysis.     

Impact of loading displacements on SLR-derived parameters and on the consistency between GNSS and SLR results

Displacements of the Earth’s surface caused by tidal and non-tidal loading forces are relevant in high-precision space geodesy. Some of the corrections are recommended by the international scientific community to be applied at the observation level, e.g., ocean tidal loading (OTL) and atmospheric tidal loading (ATL). Non-tidal displacement corrections are in general recommended not to be applied in the products of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, in particular atmospheric non-tidal loading (ANTL), oceanic and hydrological non-tidal corrections. We assess and compare the impact of OTL, ATL and ANTL on SLR-derived parameters by reprocessing 12 years of SLR data considering and ignoring individual corrections. We show that loading displacements have an influence not only on station long-term stability, but also on geocenter coordinates, Earth Rotation Parameters, and satellite orbits. Applying the loading corrections reduces the amplitudes of annual signals in the time series of geocenter and station coordinates. The general improvement of the SLR station 3D coordinate repeatability when applying OTL, ATL and ANTL corrections are 19.5 %, 0.2 % and 3.3 % respectively, w.r.t. the solutions without loading corrections. ANTL corrections play a crucial role in the combination of optical (SLR) and microwave (GNSS, VLBI, DORIS) space geodetic observation techniques, because of the so-called Blue-Sky effect: SLR measurements can be carried out only under cloudless sky conditions—typically during high air pressure conditions, when the Earth’s crust is deformed, whereas microwave observations are weather-independent. Thus, applying the loading corrections at the observation level improves SLR-derived products as well as the consistency with microwave-based results. We assess the Blue-Sky effect on SLR stations and the consistency improvement between GNSS and SLR solutions when ANTL corrections are included. The omission of ANTL corrections may lead to inconsistencies between SLR and GNSS solutions of up to 2.5 mm for inland stations. As a result, the estimated GNSS–SLR coordinate differences correspond better to the local ties at the co-located stations when applying ANTL corrections.     

Graphically supported evaluation of mapping techniques used in presenting spatial accessibility

ABSTRACT

Given the rising availability of alternative ways of spatial data mapping, there is a growing need to study their usability. An important aspect here is the diversity of the cartographic visualizations that are used to draw conclusions about the usability of various mapping techniques. In our study we evaluated the usability of six various mapping techniques used in presenting spatial accessibility, taking into consideration four components: effectiveness and efficiency (objective criteria) and graphical attractiveness and user-perceived effectiveness (subjective criteria). Using Internet questionnaires, we conducted a graphical perception experiment with respondents performing tasks on a hypothetical monocentric road network model displayed using mapping techniques of spatial accessibility, differing in the applied parameters of graphical and non-graphical factors influencing effectiveness and efficiency. The results showed that non-graphical factors had a greater influence than the graphical factors. In total usability comparison the three-dimensional (3D) point technique was ranked the highest, while the worst result was achieved by the 3D area technique. The proposed graphical form of study results made it possible to compare the influence of various effectiveness factors, to analyze mapping techniques in terms of considered criteria and finally to present their total usability using a chart inspired by Uhorczak’s typogram.