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31.
Comparison of Two Nonstationary Flood Frequency Analysis Methods within the Context of the Variable Regime in the Representative Polish Rivers 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Witold G. Strupczewski Krzysztof Kochanek Ewa Bogdanowicz Iwona Markiewicz Wojciech Feluch 《Acta Geophysica》2016,64(1):206-236
Changes in river flow regime resulted in a surge in the number of methods of non-stationary flood frequency analysis. Common assumption is the time-invariant distribution function with time-dependent location and scale parameters while the shape parameters are time-invariant. Here, instead of location and scale parameters of the distribution, the mean and standard deviation are used. We analyse the accuracy of the two methods in respect to estimation of time-dependent first two moments, time-invariant skewness and time-dependent upper quantiles. The method of maximum likelihood (ML) with time covariate is confronted with the Two Stage (TS) one (combining Weighted Least Squares and L-moments techniques). Comparison is made by Monte Carlo simulations. Assuming parent distribution which ensures the asymptotic superiority of ML method, the Generalized Extreme Value distribution with various values of linearly changing in time first two moments, constant skewness, and various time-series lengths are considered. Analysis of results indicates the superiority of TS methods in all analyzed aspects. Moreover, the estimates from TS method are more resistant to probability distribution choice, as demonstrated by Polish rivers’ case studies. 相似文献
32.
We study the effect of stratification and compressibility on the threshold of convection and the heat transfer by developed convection in the nonlinear regime in the presence of strong background rotation. We consider fluids both with constant thermal conductivity and constant thermal diffusivity. The fluid is confined between two horizontal planes with both boundaries being impermeable and stress-free. An asymptotic analysis is performed in the limits of weak compressibility of the medium and rapid rotation (τ?1/12???|θ|???1, where τ is the Taylor number and θ is the dimensionless temperature jump across the fluid layer). We find that the properties of compressible convection differ significantly in the two cases considered. Analytically, the correction to the characteristic Rayleigh number resulting from small compressibility of the medium is positive in the case of constant thermal conductivity of the fluid and negative for constant thermal diffusivity. These results are compared with numerical solutions for arbitrary stratification. Furthermore, by generalizing the nonlinear theory of Julien and Knobloch [Fully nonlinear three-dimensional convection in a rapidly rotating layer. Phys. Fluids 1999, 11, 1469–1483] to include the effects of compressibility, we study the Nusselt number in both cases. In the weakly nonlinear regime we report an increase of efficiency of the heat transfer with the compressibility for fluids with constant thermal diffusivity, whereas if the conductivity is constant, the heat transfer by a compressible medium is more efficient than in the Boussinesq case only if the specific heat ratio γ is larger than two. 相似文献
33.
AbstractDischarge in the Warta River in Poland has been analysed based on long series of measurements at the Gorzów Wielkopolski gauge station (covering the whole catchment area) and at Poznań (middle and upper catchment area), and the Note? River is characterized by the gauge station at Nowe Drezdenko. The annual mean discharge of the Warta River for the period 1981–2010 was equal to the average value for the last 163 years (209 m3 s-1), and there was no significant change in comparison with the ratio of runoff in the summer and winter half-years. In the driest region of Poland, the climate has been described on the basis of precipitation and air temperature. The annual mean precipitation for 1981–2010 (544 mm) in the Warta River catchment area was the same as that for the period 1848–2010. The precipitation has been increasing in spring and winter, and decreasing in summer. There is a positive and very significant correlation (r = 0.705) between the annual discharge and annual precipitation totals. The annual mean air temperature has risen by 0.6°C between the periods 1848–1980 and 1981–2010.
Editor D. KoutsoyiannisCitation Ilnicki, P., Farat, R., Górecki, K., and Lewandowski, P., 2014. Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (6), 1117–1134. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.831979 相似文献
34.
An analysis of linear relationships between the ground-level components of the Earth’s magnetic field measured at different sites is a relatively new topic compared to the analysis of data at a single location. The data collected by the INTERMAGNET observation network provide perfect set of data to which this analysis can be used. An important tool in this analysis may be developing a method of determination of the impulse response for linear systems in the time domain. An advantage of calculations in the time domain over the generally known and applied methods in the frequency domain is the possibility of determining prediction of output signals. By that, simultaneously with the analysis of linear relationships, a tool for recovering missing records in incomplete observation data is obtained. Filling-in the missing data may increase interest and possibility of using the observational data by researchers experimenting with the analysis in the frequency domain where gaps in data records are a significant limitation. 相似文献
35.
Impact of loading displacements on SLR-derived parameters and on the consistency between GNSS and SLR results 总被引:5,自引:4,他引:1
Krzysztof Sośnica Daniela Thaller Rolf Dach Adrian Jäggi Gerhard Beutler 《Journal of Geodesy》2013,87(8):751-769
Displacements of the Earth’s surface caused by tidal and non-tidal loading forces are relevant in high-precision space geodesy. Some of the corrections are recommended by the international scientific community to be applied at the observation level, e.g., ocean tidal loading (OTL) and atmospheric tidal loading (ATL). Non-tidal displacement corrections are in general recommended not to be applied in the products of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, in particular atmospheric non-tidal loading (ANTL), oceanic and hydrological non-tidal corrections. We assess and compare the impact of OTL, ATL and ANTL on SLR-derived parameters by reprocessing 12 years of SLR data considering and ignoring individual corrections. We show that loading displacements have an influence not only on station long-term stability, but also on geocenter coordinates, Earth Rotation Parameters, and satellite orbits. Applying the loading corrections reduces the amplitudes of annual signals in the time series of geocenter and station coordinates. The general improvement of the SLR station 3D coordinate repeatability when applying OTL, ATL and ANTL corrections are 19.5 %, 0.2 % and 3.3 % respectively, w.r.t. the solutions without loading corrections. ANTL corrections play a crucial role in the combination of optical (SLR) and microwave (GNSS, VLBI, DORIS) space geodetic observation techniques, because of the so-called Blue-Sky effect: SLR measurements can be carried out only under cloudless sky conditions—typically during high air pressure conditions, when the Earth’s crust is deformed, whereas microwave observations are weather-independent. Thus, applying the loading corrections at the observation level improves SLR-derived products as well as the consistency with microwave-based results. We assess the Blue-Sky effect on SLR stations and the consistency improvement between GNSS and SLR solutions when ANTL corrections are included. The omission of ANTL corrections may lead to inconsistencies between SLR and GNSS solutions of up to 2.5 mm for inland stations. As a result, the estimated GNSS–SLR coordinate differences correspond better to the local ties at the co-located stations when applying ANTL corrections. 相似文献
36.
The hourly data of nine geomagnetic observatories situated in Central Europe have been analyzed using the generalized magnetovariation
(GMV) method designed recently for induction soundings of inhomogeneous media. In this method, impedance is one of transfer
functions in the differential relation between spectra of the magnetic components and their derivatives. The peculiarity of
this impedance is its correspondence to the magnetotelluric one estimated from the linear relations. Three transfer functions
have been estimated simultaneously for data of geomagnetic observatories, using three different routines working in the period
range from three hours up to two days. Noises in the source field components have been compared with noise in the estimated
plane field divergence. The multivariate errors-in-variables method was used to extract spatially and temporally coherent
geomagnetic field structure from the partially incoherent geomagnetic variations. This method allows estimating reliably impedances
and gradient tippers for each observatory, taking into consideration the Earth’s sphericity. The obtained responses have been
used for induction soundings and for detecting a deep inhomogeneity in the region. 相似文献
37.
Krzysztof Szopa Aleksandra Gawęda Axel Müller Magdalena Sikorska 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2013,107(4):609-627
In the bottom part of the tongue-shaped, layered granitoid intrusion, exposed in the Western Tatra Mts., apatite-rich granitic rocks occur as pseudo-layers and pockets between I-type hybrid mafic precursors and homogeneous S-type felsic granitoids. The apatite-rich rocks are peraluminous (ASI?=?1.12–1.61), with P2O5 contents ranging from 0.05 to 3.41 wt.% (<7.5 vol.% apatite), shoshonitic to high-K calc-alkaline. Apatite is present as long-prismatic zoned crystals (Ap1) and as large xenomorphic unzoned crystals (Ap2). Ap1 apatite and biotite represent an early cumulate. Feldspar and Ap2 textural relations may reflect the interaction of the crystal faces of both minerals and support a model based on local saturation of (P, Ca, F) versus (K, Na, Al, Si, Ba) in the border zones. Chondrite-normalized REE patterns for the apatite rocks and for pure apatite suggest apatite was a main REE carrier in these rocks. Minerals characteristics and the whole rock chemistry suggest both reduced S-type and I-type magma influenced the apatite-rich rocks. The field observations, mineral and rock chemistry as well as mass-balance calculations point out that the presence of apatite-rich rocks may be linked to the continuous mixing of felsic and mafic magmas, creating unique phosphorus- and aluminium-rich magma portions. Formation of these rocks was initially dominated by the complex flowage-controlled and to some extent also gravity-driven separation of early-formed zoned minerals and, subsequently, by local saturation in the border zones of growing feldspar and apatite crystals. Slow diffusion in the phosphorus-rich magma pockets favoured the local saturation and simultaneous crystallization of apatite and feldspars in a crystal-ladden melt. 相似文献
38.
Discontinuous Galerkin numerical simulations of single phase flow problem are described in this paper. The simulations show the advantages of using discontinuous approximation spaces. hp convergence results are obtained for smooth solutions. Unstructured meshes and unsmooth solutions are also considered. 相似文献
39.
The paper summarises the history of human settlement in the Sudetes from the Bronze Age. A more intensive stage was reached
in the Middle Ages when settlers from the west established new villages deep in the mountain valleys. By the beginning of
the 20th century the Sudetes were already overpopulated but after a near-complete ethnic replacement from a German to a Polish
population in 1945–8, population continued to grow until the 1980s. However, the economic system was hardly sustainable by
this time. There were many polluting industries in the region and massive transboundary pollution from adjacent areas of Czechoslovakia
and Germany had a devastating effect on the forests. Moreover, subsidised state agriculture placed heavy pressure on vulnerable
mountain grazings. Since 1989 there has been a process of deindustrialisation in the Sudetes and surrounding areas and, with
the disappearance of the state farms and the reduction in subsidies, agriculture is now better adjusted to the natural potential
and is complemented by a promising start with agrotourism. The population of the region is growing relatively slowly (0.8%
per annum 1956–1999), with the rural areas now in decline. A sustainable future for the region is now a possibility, but while
there is a consensus for continued environmental reconstruction, supported by alternative economies, this will have to be
carefully managed in the years ahead when EU accession may bring heavier development pressures than those evident at the moment.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
40.
Piotr Owczarek Adam Nawrot Krzysztof Migała Ireneusz Malik Bartosz Korabiewski 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2014,43(2):384-402
Changes in the supply of water and sediment to high‐latitude rivers related to contemporary climate change and glacier fluctuations largely determine the activity of fluvial processes. This study reconstructs fluvial dynamics since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) in two small, partially glaciated basins in the southern part of Spitsbergen, Svalbard Archipelago. We use a combination of aerial photograph interpretation, field mapping and dendrochronological analysis. Sequences of abandoned channels and glacifluvial terraces are distinctly visible in middle and lower parts of the Brattegg and Arie basins in this area. The advance of glaciers during the LIA in the upper part of the basins led to the development of a braiding pattern and to channel aggradation corresponding to the highest glacifluvial levels. The decreasing activity of these braidplains occurred at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, immediately prior to a significant incision period. A second generation of braided channels developed during the first half of the 20th century. Ice‐marginal lake development, less input of fine‐grained sediment to the river channel, and fast incision began from the second half of the 20th century onward. During the last two decades, the main fluvial response to the climatic warming has been contraction of flow within a narrower channel and the abandonment of braidplains. The increased lateral erosion and rate of downcutting and the formation of the most downstream reaches of the modern valley bottom occurred in the 1980s and 1990s. This process was intensified under flood conditions generated by extreme rainfall events. These micro‐scale (small partially glaciated basins) observations concerning the changes of the activity of fluvial processes since the end of LIA may be helpful for the reconstruction of past fluvial changes over longer time scales. 相似文献