Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of regional climate models and its impact on the climate change signal

Realizing the error characteristics of regional climate models (RCMs) and the consequent limitations in their direct utilization in climate change impact research, this study analyzes a quantile-based empirical-statistical error correction method (quantile mapping, QM) for RCMs in the context of climate change. In particular the success of QM in mitigating systematic RCM errors, its ability to generate “new extremes” (values outside the calibration range), and its impact on the climate change signal (CCS) are investigated. In a cross-validation framework based on a RCM control simulation over Europe, QM reduces the bias of daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature, precipitation amount, and derived indices of extremes by about one order of magnitude and strongly improves the shapes of the related frequency distributions. In addition, a simple extrapolation of the error correction function enables QM to reproduce “new extremes” without deterioration and mostly with improvement of the original RCM quality. QM only moderately modifies the CCS of the corrected parameters. The changes are related to trends in the scenarios and magnitude-dependent error characteristics. Additionally, QM has a large impact on CCSs of non-linearly derived indices of extremes, such as threshold indices.     

Organic and inorganic geochemistry of Ljubija siderite deposits,NW Bosnia and Herzegovina

The Ljubija siderite deposits, hosted by a Carboniferous sedimentary complex within the Inner Dinarides, occur as stratabound replacement-type ore bodies in limestone blocks and as siderite–sulfides veins in shale. Three principal types of ore textures have been recognized including massive dark siderite and ankerite, siderite with zebra texture, and siderite veins. The ore and host rocks have been investigated by a combination of inorganic (major, trace, and rare earth element concentrations), organic (characterization of hydrocarbons including biomarkers), and stable isotope geochemical methods (isotope ratios of carbonates, sulfides, sulfates, kerogen, and individual hydrocarbons). New results indicate a marine origin of the host carbonates and a hydrothermal–metasomatic origin of the Fe mineralization. The differences in ore textures (e.g., massive siderite, zebra siderite) are attributed to physicochemical variations (e.g., changes in acidity, temperature, and/or salinity) of the mineralizing fluids and to the succession and intensity of replacement of host limestone. Vein siderite was formed by precipitation from hydrothermal fluids in the late stage of mineralization. The equilibrium fractionation of stable isotopes reveals higher formation temperatures for zebra siderites (around 245°C) then for siderite vein (around 185°C). Sulfur isotope ratios suggest Permian seawater or Permian evaporites as the main sulfur source. Fluid inclusion composition confirms a contribution of the Permian seawater to the mineralizing fluids and accord with a Permian mineralization age. Organic geochemistry data reflect mixing of hydrocarbons at the ore site and support the hydrothermal–metasomatic origin of the Ljubija iron deposits.     

The Rožná uranium deposit (Bohemian Massif, Czech Republic): shear zone-hosted, late Variscan and post-Variscan hydrothermal mineralization

Three major mineralization events are recorded at the Rožná uranium deposit (total mine production of 23,000 t U, average grade of 0.24% U): (1) pre-uranium quartz-sulfide and carbonate-sulfide mineralization, (2) uranium, and (3) post-uranium quartz-carbonate-sulfide mineralization. (1) K–Ar ages for white mica from wall rock alteration of the pre-uranium mineralization style range from 304.5 ± 5.8 to 307.6 ± 6.0 Ma coinciding with the post-orogenic exhumation of the Moldanubian orogenic root and retrograde-metamorphic equilibration of the high-grade metamorphic host rocks. The fluid inclusion record consists of low-salinity aqueous inclusions, together with H₂O-CO₂-CH₄, CO₂-CH₄, and pure CH₄ inclusions. The fluid inclusion, paragenetic, and isotope data suggest that the pre-uranium mineralization formed from a reduced low-salinity aqueous fluid at temperatures close to 300°C. (2) The uraniferous hydrothermal event is subdivided into the pre-ore, ore, and post-ore substages. K–Ar ages of pre-ore authigenic K-feldspar range from 296.3 ± 7.5 to 281.0 ± 5.4 Ma and coincide with the transcurrent reorganization of crustal blocks of the Bohemian Massif and with Late Stephanian to Early Permian rifting. Massive hematitization, albitization, and desilicification of the pre-ore altered rocks indicate an influx of oxidized basinal fluids to the crystalline rocks of the Moldanubian domain. The wide range of salinities of fluid inclusions is interpreted as a result of the large-scale mixing of basinal brines with meteoric water. The cationic composition of these fluids indicates extensive interaction with crystalline rocks. Chlorite thermometry yielded temperatures of 260°C to 310°C. During this substage, uranium was probably leached from the Moldanubian crystalline rocks. The hydrothermal alteration of the ore substage followed, or partly overlapped in time, the pre-ore substage alteration. K–Ar ages of illite from ore substage alteration range from 277.2 ± 5.5 to 264.0 ± 4.3 Ma and roughly correspond with the results of chemical U–Pb dating of authigenic monazite (268 ± 50 Ma). The uranium ore deposition was accompanied by large-scale decomposition of biotite and pre-ore chlorite to Fe-rich illite and iron hydrooxides. Therefore, it is proposed that the deposition of uranium ore was mostly in response to the reduction of the ore-bearing fluid by interaction with ferrous iron-bearing silicates (biotite and pre-ore chlorite). The Th data on primary, mostly aqueous, inclusions trapped in carbonates of the ore substage range between 152°C and 174°C and total salinity ranges over a relatively wide interval of 3.1 to 23.1 wt% NaCl eq. Gradual reduction of the fluid system during the post-ore substage is manifested by the appearance of a new generation of authigenic chlorite and pyrite. Chlorite thermometry yielded temperatures of 150°C to 170°C. Solid bitumens that post-date uranium mineralization indicate radiolytic polymerization of gaseous and liquid hydrocarbons and their derivatives. The origin of the organic compounds can be related to the diagenetic and catagenetic transformation of organic matter in Upper Stephanian and Permian sediments. (3) K–Ar ages on illite from post-uranium quartz-carbonate-sulfide mineralization range from 233.7 ± 4.7 to 227.5 ± 4.6 Ma and are consistent with the early Tethys-Central Atlantic rifting and tectonic reactivation of the Variscan structures of the Bohemian Massif. A minor part of the late Variscan uranium mineralization was remobilized during this hydrothermal event.     

A spectrophotometric study of aqueous Au(III) halide-hydroxide complexes at 25-80 °C

The mobility and transport of gold in low-temperature waters and brines is affected by the aqueous speciation of gold, which is sensitive in particular to pH, oxidation and halide concentrations. In this study, we use UV-Vis spectrophotometry to identify and measure the thermodynamic properties of Au(III) aqueous complexes with chloride, bromide and hydroxide. Au(III) forms stable square planar complexes with hydroxide and halide ligands. Based on systematic changes in the absorption spectra of solutions in three binary systems NaCl-NaBr, NaCl-NaOH and NaBr-NaOH at 25 °C, we derived log dissociation constants for the following mixed and end-member halide and hydroxide complexes: [AuCl₃Br]⁻, [AuCl₂Br₂]⁻, [AuBr₃Cl]⁻ and [AuBr₄]⁻; [AuCl₃(OH)]⁻, [AuCl₂(OH)₂]⁻, [AuCl(OH)₃]⁻ and [Au(OH)₄]⁻; and [AuBr₃(OH)]⁻, [AuBr₂(OH)₂]⁻ and [AuBr(OH)₃]⁻. These are the first reported results for the mixed chloride-bromide complexes. Increasing temperature to 80 °C resulted in an increase in the stability of the mixed chloride-bromide complexes, relative to the end-member chloride and bromide complexes. For the [AuCl_(4−n)(OH)_n]⁻ series of complexes (n = 0-4), there is an excellent agreement between our spectrophotometric results and previous electrochemical results of Chateau et al. [Chateau et al. (1966)]. In other experiments, the iodide ion (I⁻) was found to be unstable in the presence of Au(III), oxidizing rapidly to I₂(g) and causing Au to precipitate. Predicted Au(III) speciation indicates that Au(III) chloride-bromide complexes can be important in transporting gold in brines with high bromide-chloride ratios (e.g., >0.05), under oxidizing (atmospheric), acidic (pH < 5) conditions. Native gold solubility under atmospheric oxygen conditions is predicted to increase with decreasing pH in acidic conditions, increasing pH in alkaline conditions, increasing chloride, especially at acid pH, and increasing bromide for bromide/chloride ratios greater than 0.05. The results of our study increase the understanding of gold aqueous geochemistry, with the potential to lead to new methods for mineral exploration, hydrometallurgy and medicine.     

Modeling of Long-Term Evolution of Hydrophysical Fields of the Black Sea

The long-term evolution of the Black Sea dynamics (1980–2020) is reconstructed by numerical simulation. The model of the Black Sea circulation has 4.8 km horizontal spatial resolution and 40 levels in z-coordinates. The mixing processes in the upper layer are parameterized by Mellor-Yamada turbulent model. For the sea surface boundary conditions, atmospheric forcing functions were used, provided for the Black Sea region by the Euro mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) from the COSMO-CLM regional climate model. These data have a spatial resolution of 14 km and a daily temporal resolution. To evaluate the quality of the hydrodynamic fields derived from the simulation, they were compared with in-situ hydrological measurements and similar results from physical reanalysis of the Black Sea.     

The Manyas fault zone (southern Marmara region,NW Turkey): active tectonics and paleoseismology

The Manyas fault zone (MFZ) is a splay fault of the Yenice Gönen Fault, which is located on the southern branch of the North Anatolian Fault System. The MFZ is a 38 km long, WNW–ESE-trending and normal fault zone comprised of three en-echelon segments. On 6 October 1964, an earthquake (Ms = 6.9) occurred on the Salur segment. In this study, paleoseismic trench studies were performed along the Salur segment. Based on these paleoseismic trench studies, at least three earthquakes resulting in a surface rupture within the last 4000 years, including the 1964 earthquake have been identified and dated. The penultimate event can be correlated with the AD 1323 earthquake. There is no archaeological and/or historical record that can be associated with the oldest earthquake dated between BP 3800 ± 600 and BP 2300 ± 200 years. Additionally, the trench study performed to the north of the Salur segment demonstrates paleoliquefaction structures crossing each other. The surface deformation that occurred during the 1964 earthquake is determined primarily to be the consequence of liquefaction. According to the fault plane slip data, the MFZ is a purely normal fault demonstrating a listric geometry with a dip of 64°–74° to the NNE.     

Using multiresolution and multitemporal satellite data for post-disaster landslide inventory in the Republic of Serbia

This paper focuses on a specific event-based landslide inventory compiled after the May 2014 heavy rainfall episode in Serbia as a part of the post-disaster recovery actions. The inventory was completed for a total of 23 affected municipalities, and the municipality of Krupanj was selected as the location for a more detailed study. Three sources of data collection and analysis were used: a visual analysis of the post-event very high and high (VHR-HR) resolution images (Pléiades, WorldView-2 and SPOT 6), semi-automatic landslide recognition in pre- and post-event coarse resolution images (Landsat 8) and a landslide mapping field campaign. The results suggest that the visual and semi-automated analyses significantly contributed to the quality of the final inventory, including the associated planning strategies for conducting future field campaigns (as a final stage of the inventorying process), all the more so because the field-based and image-based inventories were focused on different types of landslides. In the most affected municipalities that had very high resolution satellite image coverage (19.52% of the whole study area), the density of the recognized landslides was approximately three times higher than that in those municipalities without satellite image coverage (where only field data were available). The total number of field-mapped landslides for the 23 municipalities was 1785, while image-based inventories, which were available only for the municipalities with satellite image coverage (77.43% of the study area), showed 1298 landslide records. The semi-automated landslide inventory in the test area (Krupanj municipality), which was based on coarse resolution multitemporal images (Landsat 8), counted 490 landslide instances and was in agreement with the visual analysis of the higher resolution images, with an overlap of approximately 40%. These results justify the use of preliminary inventorying via satellite image analysis and suggest a considerable potential use for preliminary visual and semi-automated landslide inventorying as an important supplement to field mapping.     

Magnetic properties of high-Ti basaltic rocks from the Krušné hory/Erzgebirge MTS. (Bohemia/Saxony), and their relation to mineral chemistry

This study provides new thermomagnetic and petrographic data on specific basaltic rock association from the broader vicinity of the Lou?ná-Oberwiesenthal volcanic centre, western Bohemia/Saxony. Two types of volcanic rocks were recognized there: (i) high-Ti types (3.5–5.2 wt% TiO₂) represented by (mela)nephelinite s.s., and sporadically present (ii) medium-Ti types (2.5–3.5 wt% TiO₂) of olivine nephelinite, nepheline basanite and phonotephrite compositions. In order to examine the rock-magnetic behaviour, they were studied for their variations in the Curie temperature (T_C) and field-dependent susceptibility, spinel group minerals, chemistry and petrology. Magnetic susceptibility of ulvöspinel-rich titanomagnetite, as a dominant magnetic carrier, depends on the amplitude of measured magnetic field, whereas pure magnetite is field-independent. Field dependence parameter ^kHD of the studied basaltic rocks ranges from 0.8 to 18.7%, TiO₂ contents in titanomagnetite range from 12.7 to 20.1 wt.%. TiO₂ content in titanomagnetite does not correlate with whole-rock TiO₂ content (2.8 to 5.6 wt.%). The content of substituted titanium in the sublattice of magnetite is also sensitively reflected in the Curie temperature, ranging from 200 to 580°C. The spinel group minerals are designated as titanomagnetite with the dominance of ulvöspinel, magnetite and magnesioferrite components, or titanomagnetite with the magnetite, ulvöspinel and magnesioferrite components. Only two samples are characterized by a significant presence of Cr-spinel and magnesiochromite components forming cores of titanomagnetites. The titanomagnetite-bearing rocks in the studied area, likewise the low- to medium-Ti basaltic rocks from the ?eské st?edoho?í Mts., provide similar thermomagnetic curves.