Seismic risk of circum-Pacific earthquakes: II. Extreme values using Gumbel's third distribution and the relationship with strain energy release

In a previous paper (Makropoulos andBurton, 1983) the seismic risk of the circum-Pacific belt was examined using a whole process technique reduced to three representative parameters related to the physical release of strain energy, these are:M ₁, the annual modal magnitude determined using the Gutenberg-Richter relationship;M ₂, the magnitude equivalent to the total strain energy release rate per annum, andM ₃, the upper bound magnitude equivalent to the maximum strain energy release in a region.The risk analysis is extended here using the part process statistical model of Gumbel's IIIrd asymptotic distribution of extreme values. The circum-Pacific is chosen being a complete earthquake data set, and the stability postulate on which asymptotic distributions of extremes are deduced to give similar results to those obtained from whole process or exact distributions of extremes is successfully checked. Additionally, when Gumbel III asymptotic distribution curve fitting is compared with Gumbel I using reduced chi-squared it is seen to be preferable in all cases and it also allows extensions to an upper-bounded range of magnitude occurrences. Examining the regional seismicity generates several seismic risk results, for example, the annual mode for all regions is greater thanm(1)=7.0, with the maximum being in the Japan, Kurile, Kamchatka region atm(1)=7.6. Overall, the most hazardous areas are situated in this northwestern region and also diagonally opposite in the southeastern circum-Pacific. Relationships are established between the Gumbel III parameters and quantitiesm ₁(1),X ₂ and , quantities notionally similar toM ₁,M ₂ andM ₃ although is shown to be systematically larger thanM; thereby giving a physical link through strain energy release to seismic risk statistics. Inall regions of the circum-Pacific similar results are obtained forM ₁,M ₂ andM ₃ and the notionally corresponding statistical quantitiesm ₁(1),X ₂ and , demonstrating that the relationships obtained are valid over a wide range of seismotectonic enviroments.     

Influence of iron oxide coating on the tribological behavior of sand grain contacts

Acta Geotechnica - Granular materials are often subjected to certain degrees of coating in natural conditions due to weathering and soil–environment interactions and the current literature...     

On the r-mode spectrum of relativistic stars

We present a mathematically rigorous proof that the r-mode spectrum of relativistic stars to the rotational lowest order has a continuous part. A rigorous definition of this spectrum is given in terms of the spectrum of a continuous linear operator. This study verifies earlier results by Kojima concerning the nature of the r-mode spectrum.     

A detailed analysis of microseismicity in Samos and Kusadasi (Eastern Aegean Sea) areas

A detailed investigation of microseismicity and fault plane solutions are used to determine the current tectonic activity of the prominent zone of seismicity near Samos Island and Kusadasi Bay. The activation of fault populations in this complex strike-slip and normal faulting system was investigated by using several thousand accurate earthquake locations obtained by applying a double-difference location method and waveform cross-correlation, appropriate for areas with relatively small seismogenic structures. The fault plane solutions, determined by both moment tensor waveform inversions and P-wave first motion polarities, reveal a clear NS trending extension direction, for strike slip, oblique normal and normal faults. The geometry of each segment is quite simple and indicates planar dislocations gently dipping with an average dip of 40–45°, maintaining a constant dip through the entire seismogenic layer, down to 15 km depth.     

A toy model for global magnetar oscillation

The presence of a magnetic field in a neutron star interior results in a dynamical coupling between the fluid core and the elastic crust. We consider a simple toy-model where this coupling is taken into account and compute the system’s mode oscillations. Our results suggest that the notion of pure torsional crust modes is not useful for the coupled system, instead all modes excite Alfvén waves in the core. However, we also show that among a rich spectrum of global MHD modes the ones most likely to be excited by a fractured crust are those for which the crust and the core oscillate in concert. For our simple model, the frequencies of these modes are similar to the “pure crustal” frequencies. We advocate the significant implications of these results for the attempted theoretical interpretation of QPOs during magnetar flares in terms of neutron star oscillations.      

Seabed shear stresses under random waves: predictions vs estimates from field measurements

The paper discusses the seabed shear stresses under random waves, and compares model predictions with results from field measurements near the seabed in the Strait of Juan de Fuca, Washington State, and at EDDA, North Sea. The model predictions as well as the interpretation of data are based on three different representative measures of random wave velocities within 12 minute records: root-mean-square, significant and maximum values. From the two locations the best agreement is found for the Strait of Juan de Fuca data regardless of the random velocity measure used. This agreement is attributed to the absence of suspended sediment at this location.     

Towards gravitational wave asteroseismology

We present new results for pulsating neutron stars. We have calculated the eigenfrequencies of the modes that one would expect to be the most important gravitational wave sources: the fundamental fluid f mode, the first pressure p mode and the first gravitational wave w mode, for twelve realistic equations of state. From these numerical data we have inferred a set of 'empirical relations' between the mode frequencies and the parameters of the star (the radius R and the mass M ). Some of these relations prove to be surprisingly robust, and we show how they can be used to extract the details of the star from observed modes. The results indicate that, should the various pulsation modes be detected by the new generation of gravitational wave detectors that come online in a few years, the mass and the radius of neutron stars can be deduced with errors no larger than a few per cent.