Forward induced seismic hazard assessment: application to a synthetic seismicity catalogue from hydraulic stimulation modelling

The M _w 3.2-induced seismic event in 2006 due to fluid injection at the Basel geothermal site in Switzerland was the starting point for an ongoing discussion in Europe on the potential risk of hydraulic stimulation in general. In particular, further development of mitigation strategies of induced seismic events of economic concern became a hot topic in geosciences and geoengineering. Here, we present a workflow to assess the hazard of induced seismicity in terms of occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The workflow is called Forward Induced Seismic Hazard Assessment (FISHA) as it combines the results of forward hydromechanical-numerical models with methods of time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. To exemplify FISHA, we use simulations of four different fluid injection types with various injection parameters, i.e. injection rate, duration and style of injection. The hydromechanical-numerical model applied in this study represents a geothermal reservoir with preexisting fractures where a routine of viscous fluid flow in porous media is implemented from which flow and pressure driven failures of rock matrix and preexisting fractures are simulated, and corresponding seismic moment magnitudes are computed. The resulting synthetic catalogues of induced seismicity, including event location, occurrence time and magnitude, are used to calibrate the magnitude completeness M _c and the parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relation. These are used to estimate the time-dependent occurrence rate of induced seismic events for each fluid injection scenario. In contrast to other mitigation strategies that rely on real-time data or already obtained catalogues, we can perform various synthetic experiments with the same initial conditions. Thus, the advantage of FISHA is that it can quantify hazard from numerical experiments and recommend a priori a stimulation type that lowers the occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The FISHA workflow is rather general and not limited to the hydromechanical-numerical model used in this study and can therefore be applied to other fluid injection models.     

Persisting challenges for performance-based building assessment

Intense research and refinement of the tools used in performance-based seismic engineering have been made, but the maturity and accuracy of these methods have not been adequately confirmed with actual data from the field. The gap between the assumed characteristics of actual building systems and their idealized counterparts used for analysis is wide. When the randomly distributed flaws in buildings as they exist in urban areas and the extreme variability of ground motion patterns combine, the conventional procedures used for pushover or dynamic response history analyses seem to fall short of reconciling the differences between calculated and observed damage. For emergency planning and loss modeling purposes, such discrepancies are factors that must be borne in mind. Two relevant examples are provided herein. These examples demonstrate that consensus-based analytical guidelines also require well-idealized building models that do not lend themselves to reasonably manageable representations from field data. As a corollary, loss modeling techniques, e.g., used for insurance purposes, must undergo further development and improvement.     

Land cover mapping using time series HJ-1/CCD data

It is very difficult to have remote sensing data with both high spatial resolution and high temporal frequency; thus, two categories of land-use mapping methodology have been developed separately for coarser resolution and finer resolution data. The first category uses time series of data to retrieve the variation of land surface for classification, which are usually used for coarser resolution data with high temporal frequency. The second category uses fine spatial resolution data to classify different land surface. With the launch of Chinese satellite constellation HJ-1in 2008, four 30 m spatial resolution CCDs with about 360 km coverage for each one onboard two satellites made a revisit period of two days, which brought a new type of data with both high spatial resolution and high temporal frequency. Therefore, by taking the spatiotemporal advantage of HJ-1/CCD data we propose a new method for finer resolution land cover mapping using the time series HJ-1/CCD data, which can greatly improve the land cover mapping accuracy. In our two study areas, the very high resolution remote sensing data within Google Earth are used to validate the land cover mapping results, which shows a very high mapping accuracy of 95.76% and 83.78% and a high Kappa coefficient of 0.9423 and 0.8165 in the Dahuofang area of Liaoning Province and the Heiquan area of Gansu Province respectively.     

Diagenetic fluid evolution and water-rock interaction model of carbonate cements in sandstone: An example from the reservoir sandstone of the Fourth Member of the Xujiahe Formation of the Xiaoquan-Fenggu area,Sichuan Province,China

Carbonate cement is the most abundant cement type in the Fourth Member of the Xujiahe Formation in the Xiaoquan-Fenggu area of the West Sichuan Depression. Here we use a systematic analysis of carbonate cement petrology, mineralogy, carbon and oxygen isotope ratios and enclosure homogenization temperatures to study the precipitation mechanism, pore fluid evolution, and distribution of different types of carbonate cement in reservoir sand in the study area. Crystalline calcite has relatively heavy carbon and oxygen isotope ratios(δ13C = 2.14‰, δ18O = -5.77‰), and was precipitated early. It was precipitated directly from supersaturated alkaline fluid under normal temperature and pressure conditions. At the time of precipitation, the fluid oxygen isotope ratio was very light, mainly showing the characteristics of a mixed meteoric water-seawater fluid(δ18O = -3‰), which shows that the fluid during precipitation was influenced by both meteoric water and seawater. The calcite cement that fills in the secondary pores has relatively lighter carbon and oxygen isotope ratios(δ13C = -2.36‰, δ18O = -15.68‰). This cement was precipitated late, mainly during the Middle and Late Jurassic. An important material source for this carbonate cement was the feldspar corrosion process that involved organic matter. The Ca2+, Fe3+ and Mg2+ ions released by the clay mineral transformation process were also important source materials. Because of water-rock interactions during the burial process, the oxygen isotope ratio of the fluid significantly increased during precipitation, by about 3‰. The dolomite cements in calcarenaceous sandstone that was precipitated during the Middle Jurassic have heavier carbon and oxygen isotope ratios, which are similar to those of carbonate debris in the sandstone(δ13C = 1.93‰, δ18O = -6.11‰), demonstrating that the two are from the same source that had a heavier oxygen isotope ratio(δ18O of about 2.2‰). The differences in fluid oxygen isotope ratios during cement precipitation reflect the influences of different water-rock interaction systems or different water-rock interaction strengths. This is the main reason why the sandstone containing many rigid particles(lithic quartz sandstone) has a relatively negative carbon isotope ratio and why the precipitation fluid in calcarenaceous sandstone has a relatively heavier oxygen isotope ratio.     

Holocene slip rate and paleoearthquake records of the Salt Lake segment of the Northern Zhongtiaoshan Fault,Shanxi Province

The Northern Zhongtiaoshan Fault is a major deep fault at the southern margin of the Yuncheng Basin. There have been few studies on the fault, and the historical earthquakes are few and weak. However, the intensity of activity on the fault should never be underestimated. Through interpretations of aerial images, topography measurements and excavation of trenches, this paper studied the fault distribution, the surface deformation and the activity of the normal fault south of Salt Lake near the city of Yuncheng. By tracing faults in the three trenches, it was found that there had been at least three large paleoseismic events, at 1–3.5, 3.6–4.4 and 7.4–8.8 ka BP. Employing 14 C dating, we determined the same gravel layers in the uplifted side and downthrown side. Making differential Global Positioning System measurements of the vertical difference and topographic profile, we obtained the mean slip rate of the Northern Zhongtiaoshan Fault since 24.7 ka BP(0.75±0.05 mm/a). Using the results of relevant studies, we calculated the possible vertical fault displacement of one earthquake(2.35 m) and obtained the recurrence interval of characteristic earthquakes as 2940–3360 a after dividing the displacement by the mean slip rate.     

A study on the seismic behavior of a retrofitted building based on nonlinear static and dynamic analyses

This study describes the seismic performance of an existing five storey reinforced concrete building which represents the typical properties of low-rise non-ductile buildings in Turkey. The effectiveness of shear walls and the steel bracings in retrofitting the building was examined through nonlinear static and dynamic analyses. By using the nonlinear static analysis, retrofitted buildings seismic performances under lateral seismic load were compared with each other. Moreover, the performance points and response levels of the existing and retrofitting cases were determined by way of the capacity-spectrum method described in ATC-40 (1996). For the nonlinear dynamic analysis the records were selected torepresent wide ranges of duration and frequency content. Considering the change in the stiffness and the energy dissipation capacities, the performance of the existing and retrofitted buildings were evaluated in terms of story drifts and damage states. It was found that each earthquake record exhibited its own peculiarities, dictated by frequency content, duration, sequence of peaks and their amplitude. The seismic performance of retrofitted buildings resulted in lower displacements and higher energy dissipation capacity depending mainly on the properties of the ground motions and the retrofitting strategies. Moreover, severe structural damage (irreparable or collapse) was observed for the existing building. However, buildings with retrofit alternatives exhibited lower damage levels changing from no damage to irreparable damage states.     

Geochemical characterization of karst groundwater in the cradle of humankind world heritage site,South Africa

The karst of the Cradle of Humankind World Heritage Site plays a major role in the assimilation or carrying of acid mine drainage, sewage effluent return flow and agricultural run-off. Infiltration of contaminated water has altered the chemical composition of the natural waters of the karst system. A multivariate statistical method in combination with conventional geochemical and spatial analysis was applied on groundwater and surface water quality samples to determine the spatial extent of hydrochemical impacts from different anthropogenic sources. The application of hierarchical cluster analysis of the major ions (148 samples) recognised three distinct hydrochemical regimes. Cluster 1 is moderately mineralized, especially with regard to chloride, nitrate and sulphate, cluster 2 has a low mineralization with all elements well within the recommended drinking water limits of South Africa and cluster 3 represents highly mineralized samples taken in the vicinity of decanting mineshafts. The cluster solution is confirmed by a simple mixing model, indicating varying contributions of three identified end members (acid mine drainage, treated sewage effluents and pristine dolomitic groundwater) to the groundwater quality in the catchment. The combination of statistical, geochemical and spatial methods in conjunction with end-member mixing analysis provides a reliable method to understand the processes responsible for the groundwater quality variations and to assist in the identification of anthropogenic impacts.     

EVIDENCE OF NEOTECTONIC IMPACT ON A LARGE SEDIMENTARY BASIN BETWEEN TIBETAN PLATEAU AND GOBI ALTAY,NW CHINA

The Ejina(Gaxun Nur)Basin­enclosed by the Tibetan Plateau in the south and the Gobi Altay in the north has continuously evolved as a strong continental endorheic depositional environment. Medium scale geomorphological mapping by Landsat­ and Corona­Images as well as SRTM­topographic data,combined with field­surveys and geophysical investigation provides evidence for tectonic impact on sedimentary processes during the Late Quaternary.
Analyses of SRTM­Data and Landsat­Images reveal a system of up to 20m high inverted channels developed on the inactive eastern part of the large Hei river drainage delta south of the ancient lake Juyanze. The complex evolution of these landforms requires a relative lowering of the lake basin at least two times since the last 40ka. A 26m high cliff section of gravel­covered lake sediments within the Juyanze paleolake indicates a strong subsidence of the lake bottom of 10m/1000yrs since 18kaB.P.
North of Ejina river oasis a distinct north­south striking scarp up to 13m high constitutes the eastern margin of the Gaxun Nur. Palaeodrainage channels derived from the Gobi Altay. They display a sinistral offset of some decametres along a set of WE­trending faults. The rhombic shape of the modern dry Gaxun Nur,fossil cliffs,well preserved beach ridges along the margins of the palaeolake system as well as gravel covered topsets of lacustrine sediments indicate local displacements of morphological features. The displacements of lake sediments at the southern margin of the modern Gaxun Nur Basin imply a subsidence of at least 0.81m/1000 yrs since 25kaB.P.as a result of a pull­apart development due to the left stepping faults in a sinistral system.