Hydrological model parameter (in)stability – “crash testing” the HBV model under contrasting flood seasonality conditions

This paper investigates the transferability of calibrated HBV model parameters under stable and contrasting conditions in terms of flood seasonality and flood generating processes (FGP) in five Norwegian catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes. We apply a series of generalized (differential) split-sample tests using a 6-year moving window over (i) the entire runoff observation periods, and (ii) two subsets of runoff observations distinguished by the seasonal occurrence of annual maximum floods during either spring or autumn. The results indicate a general model performance loss due to the transfer of calibrated parameters to independent validation periods of ?5 to ?17%, on average. However, there is no indication that contrasting flood seasonality exacerbates performance losses, which contradicts the assumption that optimized parameter sets for snowmelt-dominated floods (during spring) perform particularly poorly on validation periods with rainfall-dominated floods (during autumn) and vice versa.     

Spatial patterns of frequent floods in Switzerland

This study investigates the spatial dependence of high and extreme streamflows in Switzerland across different scales. First, using 56 runoff time series from Swiss rivers, we determined the average length of high-streamflow events for different levels of extremeness. Second, a dependence measure that expressed the probability that streamflow peaks would meet or exceed streamflow peaks at a conditioning site was used to describe and map the spatial extent of joint streamflow-peak occurrences across Switzerland. Third, we analysed the spatial patterns of jointly occurring high streamflows using cluster analysis to identify groups that react similarly in terms of flood frequency at different sites. The results indicate that, on a coarse scale, high and extreme streamflows are asymptotically independent in the main Swiss basins. Additionally, mesoscale tributaries in the main basins show distinct flood regions across river systems.     

Climate change effects on hydrological system conditions influencing generation of storm runoff in small Alpine catchments

Floods and debris flows in small Alpine torrent catchments (<10 km²) arise from a combination of critical antecedent system state conditions and mostly convective precipitation events with high precipitation intensities. Thus, climate change may influence the magnitude–frequency relationship of extreme events twofold: by a modification of the occurrence probabilities of critical hydrological system conditions and by a change of event precipitation characteristics. Three small Alpine catchments in different altitudes in Western Austria (Ruggbach, Brixenbach and Längentalbach catchment) were investigated by both field experiments and process‐based simulation. Rainfall–runoff model (HQsim) runs driven by localized climate scenarios (CNRM‐RM4.5/ARPEGE, MPI‐REMO/ECHAM5 and ICTP‐RegCM3/ECHAM5) were used in order to estimate future frequencies of stormflow triggering system state conditions. According to the differing altitudes of the study catchments, two effects of climate change on the hydrological systems can be observed. On one hand, the seasonal system state conditions of medium altitude catchments are most strongly affected by air temperature‐controlled processes such as the development of the winter snow cover as well as evapotranspiration. On the other hand, the unglaciated high‐altitude catchment is less sensitive to climate change‐induced shifts regarding days with critical antecedent soil moisture and desiccated litter layer due to its elevation‐related small proportion of sensitive areas. For the period 2071–2100, the number of days with critical antecedent soil moisture content will be significantly reduced to about 60% or even less in summer in all catchments. In contrast, the number of days with dried‐out litter layers causing hydrophobic effects will increase by up to 8%–11% of the days in the two lower altitude catchments. The intensity analyses of heavy precipitation events indicate a clear increase in rain intensities of up to 10%.     

Bedrock geology controls on catchment storage,mixing, and release: A comparative analysis of 16 nested catchments

The bedrock controls on catchment mixing, storage, and release have been actively studied in recent years. However, it has been difficult to find neighbouring catchments with sufficiently different and clean expressions of geology to do comparative analysis. Here, we present new data for 16 nested catchments (0.45 to 410 km²) in the Alzette River basin (Luxembourg) that span a range of clean and mixed expressions of schists, phyllites, sandstones, and quartzites to quantify the relationships between bedrock permeability and metrics of water storage and release. We examined 9 years' worth of precipitation and discharge data, and 6 years of fortnightly stable isotope data in streamflow, to explore how bedrock permeability controls (a) streamflow regime metrics, (b) catchment storage, and (c) isotope response and catchment mean transit time (MTT). We used annual and winter precipitation–run‐off ratios, as well as average summer and winter precipitation–run‐off ratios to characterise the streamflow regime in our 16 study catchments. Catchment storage was then used as a metric for catchment comparison. Water mixing potential of 11 catchments was quantified via the standard deviation in streamflow δD (σδD) and the amplitude ratio (A_S/A_P) of annual cycles of δ¹⁸O in streamflow and precipitation. Catchment MTT values were estimated via both stable isotope signature damping and hydraulic turnover calculations. In our 16 nested catchments, the variance in ratios of summer versus winter average run‐off was best explained by bedrock permeability. Whereas active storage (defined here as a measure of the observed maximum interannual variability in catchment storage) ranged from 107 to 373 mm, total catchment storage (defined as the maximum catchment storage connected to the stream network) extended up to ~1700 mm (±200 mm). Catchment bedrock permeability was strongly correlated with mixing proxies of σδD in streamflow and δ¹⁸O A_S/A_P ratios. Catchment MTT values ranged from 0.5 to 2 years, based on stable isotope signature damping, and from 0.5 to 10 years, based on hydraulic turnover.     

The relevance of preferential flow in catchment scale simulations: Calibrating a 3D dual-permeability model using DREAM

The occurrence of preferential flow in the subsurface has often been shown in field experiments. However, preferential flow is rarely included in models simulating the hydrological response at the catchment scale. If it is considered, preferential flow parameters are typically determined at the plot scale and then transferred to larger-scale simulations. Here, we successfully used the optimization algorithm DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) to calibrate a 3D physics-based dual-permeability model directly at the catchment scale. In order to keep computational costs of the optimization routine at a reasonable level, we limited the number of parameters to be calibrated to the ones that had been shown before to be most influential for the simulation of discharge. We also calibrated parameters of the matrix domain and the macropore domain with a fixed parameter ratio between soil layers instead of calibrating every layer separately. These ratios reflected observed depth profiles of soil hydraulic properties at our study site. The dual-permeability parameter sets identified during calibration were able to simulate observed discharge time series satisfactorily but did not outperform a calibrated single-domain reference model scenario. Saturated hydraulic conductivities of the macropore domain were calibrated such that they became very similar to matrix saturated hydraulic conductivities, thereby effectively removing the effect of macropores. This suggests that the incorporation of vertical preferential flow as represented by the dual-permeability approach was not relevant for reproducing the hydrometric response reasonably well in the studied catchment. We also tested the scale-invariance of the calibrated dual-permeability parameter sets by using the parameter sets performing best at catchment scale to simulate plot-scale bromide depth profiles obtained from tracer irrigation experiments. This parameter transfer proved to be not successful, indicating that soil hydraulic parameters are scale-variant, independent of the direction of parameter transfer.     

Architecture of tunnel valleys in the southeastern North Sea: new insights from high-resolution seismic imaging

Tunnel valleys are assumed to form near the margin of ice sheets. Hence, they can be used to reconstruct the dynamics of former ice margins. The detailed formation and infill of tunnel valleys, however, are still not well understood. Here, we present a dense grid of high-resolution 2D multi-channel reflection seismic data from the German sector of the southeastern North Sea imaging tunnel valleys in very great detail. Three tunnel valley systems were traced over distances ranging between 11 and 21 km. All tunnel valleys are completely filled and buried. They differ in incision depth, incision width and number of incisions. The tunnel valleys cut 130–380 m deep into Neogene, Palaeogene and Cretaceous sediments; they show a lower V-shaped and an upper U-shaped morphology. For individual tunnel valleys, the overall incision direction ranges from east–west to northeast–southwest. Two tunnel valleys intersect at an oblique angle without reuse of the thalweg. These valleys incise into a pre-existing glaciotectonic complex consisting of thrust sheets in the northwest of the study area. The analysis of the glaciotectonic complex and the tunnel valleys leads us to assume that we identified several marginal positions of (pre-)Elsterian ice lobes in the southeastern North Sea.     

NanoSr – A New Carbonate Microanalytical Reference Material for In Situ Strontium Isotope Analysis

The in situ measurement of Sr isotopes in carbonates by MC‐ICP‐MS is limited by the availability of suitable microanalytical reference materials (RMs), which match the samples of interest. Whereas several well‐characterised carbonate reference materials for Sr mass fractions > 1000 µg g^?1 are available, there is a lack of well‐characterised carbonate microanalytical RMs with lower Sr mass fractions. Here, we present a new synthetic carbonate nanopowder RM with a Sr mass fraction of ca. 500 µg g^?1 suitable for microanalytical Sr isotope research (‘NanoSr’). NanoSr was analysed by both solution‐based and in situ techniques. Element mass fractions were determined using EPMA (Ca mass fraction), as well as laser ablation and solution ICP‐MS in different laboratories. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio was determined by well‐established bulk methods for Sr isotope measurements and is 0.70756 ± 0.00003 (2s). The Sr isotope microhomogeneity of the material was determined by LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS, which resulted in ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of 0.70753 ± 0.00007 (2s) and 0.70757 ± 0.00006 (2s), respectively, in agreement with the solution data within uncertainties. Thus, this new reference material is well suited to monitor and correct microanalytical Sr isotope measurements of low‐Sr, low‐REE carbonate samples. NanoSr is available from the corresponding author.     

Vodyanitskii mud volcano,Sorokin trough,Black Sea: Geological characterization and quantification of gas bubble streams

Vodyanitskii mud volcano is located at a depth of about 2070 m in the Sorokin Trough, Black sea. It is a 500-m wide and 20-m high cone surrounded by a depression, which is typical of many mud volcanoes in the Black Sea. 75 kHz sidescan sonar show different generations of mud flows that include mud breccia, authigenic carbonates, and gas hydrates that were sampled by gravity coring. The fluids that flow through or erupt with the mud are enriched in chloride (up to ∼650 mmol L⁻¹ at ∼150-cm sediment depth) suggesting a deep source, which is similar to the fluids of the close-by Dvurechenskii mud volcano. Direct observation with the remotely operated vehicle Quest revealed gas bubbles emanating at two distinct sites at the crest of the mud volcano, which confirms earlier observations of bubble-induced hydroacoustic anomalies in echosounder records. The sediments at the main bubble emission site show a thermal anomaly with temperatures at ∼60 cm sediment depth that were 0.9 °C warmer than the bottom water. Chemical and isotopic analyses of the emanated gas revealed that it consisted primarily of methane (99.8%) and was of microbial origin (δD-CH₄ = −170.8‰ (SMOW), δ¹³C-CH₄ = −61.0‰ (V-PDB), δ¹³C-C₂H₆ = −44.0‰ (V-PDB)). The gas flux was estimated using the video observations of the ROV. Assuming that the flux is constant with time, about 0.9 ± 0.5 × 10⁶ mol of methane is released every year. This value is of the same order-of-magnitude as reported fluxes of dissolved methane released with pore water at other mud volcanoes. This suggests that bubble emanation is a significant pathway transporting methane from the sediments into the water column.     

Phosphorus input by upwelling in the eastern Gotland Basin (Baltic Sea) in summer and its effects on filamentous cyanobacteria

In July 2007, phosphorus input by an upwelling event along the east coast of Gotland Island and the response of filamentous cyanobacteria were studied to determine whether introduced phosphorus can intensify cyanobacterial bloom formation in the eastern Gotland Basin. Surface temperature, nutrient concentrations, phytoplankton biomass and its stoichiometry, as well as phosphate uptake rates were determined in two transects between the coasts of Gotland and Latvia and in a short grid offshore of Gotland. In the upwelling area, surface temperatures of 11–12 °C and average dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) concentrations of 0.26 μM were measured. Outside the upwelling, surface temperatures were higher (15.5–16.6 °C) and DIP supplies in the upper 10 m layer were exhausted. Nitrite and nitrate concentrations (0.01–0.22 μM) were very low within and outside the upwelling region. Abundances of filamentous cyanobacteria were highly reduced in the upwelling area, accounting for only 1.4–6.0% of the total phytoplankton biomass, in contrast to 18–20% outside the upwelling. The C:P ratio of filamentous cyanobacteria varied between 32.8 and 310 in the upwelling region, most likely due to the introduction of phosphorus-depleted organisms into the upwelling water. These organisms accumulate DIP in upwelling water and have lower C:P ratios as long as they remain in DIP-rich water. Thus, diazotrophic cyanobacteria benefit from phosphorus input directly in the upwelling region. Outside the upwelling region, the C:P ratios of filamentous cyanobacteria varied widely, between 240 and 463, whereas those of particulate material in the water ranged only between 96 and 224. To reduce their C:P ratio from 300 to 35, cyanobacteria in the upwelling region had to take up 0.05 mmol m⁻³ DIP, which is about 20% of the available DIP. Thus, a larger biomass of filamentous cyanobacteria may be able to benefit from a given DIP input. As determined from the DIP uptake rates measured in upwelling cells, the time needed to reduce the C:P ratio from 300 to 35 was too long to explain the huge bloom formations that typically occur in summer. However, phosphorus uptake rates increased significantly with increasing C:P ratios, allowing phosphorus accumulation within 4–5 days, a span of time suitable for bloom formation in July and August.     

Dust tail streamers of a comet with rotating nucleus

Synthetic images of the dust tail are presented for a comet which has a rotating nucleus with one predominant dust source fixed to it. The images have been generated using a new computer model which, unlike similar models, allows for the study of dust tails caused by a rotating nucleus with an anisotropic distribution of sources.The dust tail is studied in the post-perihelion phase of a parabolic comet with a perihelion distance of 0.5 AU. One finds that in the case of a rotating nucleus with anisotropic emission characteristics streamers caused solely by the dynamics of the dust particles are forming in the dust tail even if there is no dependence between the solar irradiation angle of the source and the amount of dust emitted. If the dust emission depends on the solar irradiation angle of the dust source, then the brightest tail regions do not necessarily coincide with the synchrones for the times of maximum dust emission.As a consequence, a thorough analysis of streamer patterns in a cometary dust tail requires assumptions on the rotational state and the dust source distribution of the nucleus. Otherwise, it seems not possible to discern between streamers which are caused dynamically by nucleus rotation and others which reflect variations in the emission activity.