The steric component of sea level rise associated with enhanced greenhouse warming: a model study

Climate change due to enhanced greenhouse warming has been calculated using the coupled GFDL general circulation model of the atmosphere and ocean. The results of the model for a sustained increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide of 1% per year over a century indicate a marked warming of the upper ocean. Results of the model are used to study the rise in sea level caused by increase in ocean temperatures and associated changes in ocean circulation. Neglecting possible contributions due to changes in the volume of polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers, the model predicts an average rise in sea level of approximately 15 ± 5 cm by the time atmospheric carbon dioxide doubles. Heating anomalies are greatest in subpolar latitudes. This effect leads to a weakening of the ocean thermohaline circulation. Changes in thermohaline circulation redistribute heat within the ocean from high latitudes toward the equator, and cause a more uniform sea level rise than would occur otherwise.     

Calculating climate attractor dimension from δ18O records by the Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm

The Grassberger-Procaccia method of calculating dimension from a time series is applied to 14 late Pleistocene ¹⁸O records. The difficulties encountered when using this algorithm on limited data sets are reviewed and the step-by-step procedure actually used to calculate the dimension of each record is explicitly listed. Although the results must be viewed with caution, they do indicate that the dimension cannot be measured accurately enough to determine whether or not it is fractal. However, in spite of inaccuracies in the time scale, the underlying dynamics do not appear to be random and there is a suggestion that a lower bound to the Grassberger-Procaccia dimension is somewhere between 4 and 6.     

High-resolution records of the response of coastal wetland systems to long-term and short-term sea-level variability

While it is well known that coastal systems respond to long-term sea-level changes, the importance of short-term sea-level dynamics is often overlooked. Year-to-year variability in annual mean sea level along the North American Atlantic coast is part of a regionally consistent pattern that is coupled to low atmospheric pressure and high wind field anomalies persisting over 100s to 1000s of km. These short-term sea-level dynamics, along with long-term sea-level changes are shown to be closely coupled to a set of high resolution excess ²¹⁰Pb geochronologies from four physiographically distinct salt marsh estuaries surrounding Long Island, NY, USA. However, the degree to which a marsh responds to either forcing depends on its physiographic setting. Accretion and mineral deposition rates in marshes situated in embayments with long fetches and low-tidal ranges are shown to respond most to the short-term dynamically driven changes in sea level. On the other hand, accretion and mineral deposition in a marsh in an embayment with a high-tidal range and reduced fetch best track the long-term changes in mean sea level, presumably because the physiography limited the meteorological drivers of short-term sea-level change. The close coupling between marsh accretion, physiographic setting and indices of sea-level change indicates that these coastal system respond both differently and rapidly (2–5 yr) to climate variability.     

Comparison of USGS and DLR topographic models of Comet Borrelly and photometric applications

Stereo analysis of images obtained during the 2001 flyby of Comet Borrelly by NASA's Deep Space 1 (DS1) probe allows us to quantify the shape and photometric behavior of the nucleus. The shape is complex, with planar facets corresponding to the dark, mottled regions of the surface whereas the bright, smooth regions are convexly curved. The photometric as well as textural differences between these regions can be explained in terms of topography (roughness) at and below the image resolution, without invoking significant variations in single-particle properties; the material on Borrelly's surface could be quite uniform. A statistical comparison of the digital elevation models (DEMs) produced from the three highest-resolution images independently at the USGS and DLR shows that their difference standard deviation is 120 m, consistent with a matching error of 0.20 pixel (similar to reported matching accuracies for many other stereo datasets). The DEMs also show some systematic differences attributable to manual versus automatic matching. Disk-resolved photometric modeling of the nucleus using the DEM shows that bright, smooth terrains on Borrelly are similar in roughness (Hapke roughness θ=20°) to C-type asteroid Mathilde but slightly brighter and more backscattering (single-scattering albedo w=0.056, Henyey-Greenstein phase parameter g=−0.32). The dark, mottled terrain is photometrically consistent with the same particles but with roughnesses as large as 60°. Intrinsically darker material is inconsistent with the phase behavior of these regions. Many local radiance variations are clearly related to topography, and others are consistent with a topographic explanation; one need not invoke albedo variations greater than a few tens of percent to explain the appearance of Borrelly.     

Spatial patterns of ice storm disturbance on a forested landscape in the Appalachian Mountains, Virginia

Ice storms (major freezing rain events) periodically disturb forests in eastern North America. The damage may vary spatially, especially in complex terrain. This study uses satellite imagery to investigate spatial heterogeneity of forest damage caused by ice storms that affected the Appalachian Mountains, Virginia during 1994. The results display a region-scale (southwest-to-northeast) gradient in damage that apparently corresponds to a gradient in the depth of ice that accumulated during the storms. Damage also varied topographically, particularly by aspect. Damage was most extensive on east-, southeast- and south-facing slopes; at middle elevations; and on slopes of moderate steepness.     

Natural radionuclides as tracers of coastal biogeochemical processes

This paper presents an overview of the ways that natural radionuclides have been used as tracers of biogeochemical processes occurring in the coastal ocean. The radionuclides involved include those in the uranium and thorium decay series and those produced in the atmosphere by the interaction of cosmic rays with atmospheric gases (i.e., cosmogenic radionuclides). The property of radioactivity provides a chronometer with which to measure the rates of oceanic processes, and the fundamental biogeochemical behavior of the radionuclide determines which process(es) it may be used to trace. Examples from recent research will be presented in the talk.     

A Pool-Based Model of the Spatial Distribution of Undiscovered Petroleum Resoufrces

An approach is proposed to predict the spatial distributions of undiscovered petroleum resources. Each pool is parameterized as a marked-point. The independence chain of the Hastings algorithm is used to generate an appropriate structure for pool combinations in a play. Petroleum-bearing favorability estimated from geological observations is used to represent the sampling probabilities of pool locations. An objective function measuring the distance between characteristics of the realization and constraints is constructed from both the pool size distribution and entropy maximum criterion, in which the entropy criterion places all undiscovered pools in the most favorable positions. The geometrical convergence property of the proposed Hastings algorithm is presented. The method is illustrated by a case study from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin.