Understanding Climatic Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation in the United States: Building a Capacity for Assessment

Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate.     

Recent Rapid Regional Climate Warming on the Antarctic Peninsula

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that mean global warming was 0.6 ± 0.2 °C during the 20th century and cited anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases as the likely cause of temperature rise in the last 50 years. But this mean value conceals the substantial complexity of observed climate change, which is seasonally- and diurnally-biased, decadally-variable and geographically patchy. In particular, over the last 50 years three high-latitude areas have undergone recent rapid regional (RRR) warming, which was substantially more rapid than the global mean. However, each RRR warming occupies a different climatic regime and may have an entirely different underlying cause. We discuss the significance of RRR warming in one area, the Antarctic Peninsula. Here warming was much more rapid than in the rest of Antarctica where it was not significantly different to the global mean. We highlight climate proxies that appear to show that RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula is unprecedented over the last two millennia, and so unlikely to be a natural mode of variability. So while the station records do not indicate a ubiquitous polar amplification of global warming, the RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula might be a regional amplification of such warming. This, however, remains unproven since we cannot yet be sure what mechanism leads to such an amplification. We discuss several possible candidate mechanisms: changing oceanographic or changing atmospheric circulation, or a regional air-sea-ice feedback amplifying greenhouse warming. We can show that atmospheric warming and reduction in sea-ice duration coincide in a small area on the west of the Antarctic Peninsula, but here we cannot yet distinguish cause and effect. Thus for the present we cannot determine which process is the probable cause of RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula and until the mechanism initiating and sustaining the RRR warming is understood, and is convincingly reproduced in climate models, we lack a sound basis for predicting climate change in this region over the coming century.     

Column Amounts of ClONO2, HCl, HNO3, and HF from Ground-Based FTIR Measurements Made Near Kiruna, Sweden, in Late Winter 1994

During SESAME phase I ground-based FTIR measurements were performed atEsrange near Kiruna, Sweden, from 28 January to 26 March 1994. Zenith columnamounts of ClONO₂, HCl, HF, HNO₃,O₃, N₂O, CH₄, and CFC-12 werederived from solar absorption spectra. Time series of ClONO₂and HCl indicate a chlorine activation at the end of January and around 1March. On 1 March a very low amount of HCl of 2.09times; 10¹⁵molec. cm^-2 was detected, probably caused by a second chlorineactivation phase starting from an already decreased amount of HCl. The ratioof column amounts of HCl to ClONO₂ decreased inside the vortexfrom about 1 in January to 0.4 in late March compared to values of about 2outside the vortex. Although the Arctic stratosphere was rather warm in winter1993/94 and PSCs occurred seldom, chlorine partitioning into its reservoirspecies HCl and ClONO₂ changed during that winter andClONO₂ is the major chlorine reservoir at the end of thewinter as in cold winters like 1991/92 and 1994/95.     

Calculations of horizontal mixing rates using222Rn and the controls on hypoxia in western Long Island Sound, 1991

Late summer hypoxia (<3 ppm oxygen) in western Long Island Sound (WLIS) is a persistent environmental and management issue whose controlling processes are poorly understood. Measured rates of sediment and water-column oxygen consumption in the bottom water suggest that a condition of no oxygen should be attained on the time scale of 13–30 d. Observations, however, indicate the onset of hypoxia is of the order 150 d. Therefore, horizontal and/or vertical transport of oxygen into the area of hypoxia must play an important role. Hypoxia decreases benthic activity and the sediment flux of²²²Rn. The resulting horizontal gradient in bottom water²²²Rn was measured and used to estimate the effective horizontal transport rate (>5–50 m² s^?1), which is considerably slower than previous estimates. Scale analysis of the hypoxia process indicates that horizontal transport rates alone can explain the slow progression of hypoxia in XLIS but that vertical processes may also be capable of delaying the onset of hypoxia especially under conditions of weak stratification or weak intermediate layer oxygen consumption. This scale analysis indicates a delicately balanced process that is sensitive to both climatologically-driven variability in the rates of horizontal and vertical transport as well as the biologically-driven rates of oxygen consumption. An improved ability to predict and/or control hypoxia must be based on a better understanding of temporal and spacial variations in circulation, mixing, and stratification as well as the biological processes in the water column and the sediments.     

Carbon cycling in a shallow turbid estuary of southeast Texas: The use of plant pigment biomarkers and water quality parameters

Particulate organic carbon (POC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and plant pigments (chlorophylls and carotenoids) were measured approximately bimonthly from March 1992 to October 1993 in the Sabine-Neches estuary (Sabine Lake region), located on the Texas-Louisiana border. High freshwater inflow into this shallow turbid estuary results in the shortest hydraulic residence time (ca. 7 d) of all Texas estuaries (Baskaran et al. in press). Annual averages of chlorophyll-a (3.0 μg l^?1) and particulate organic carbon (1.1 mg l^?1) in the water column were extremely low in comparison to other shallow estuaries. The highest chlorophyll-a concentrations were observed in October 1993, in the mid and lower regions of the estuary, during the lowest river discharge. Zeaxanthin and fucoxanthin concentrations suggested that much of the chlorophyll-a during this low flow period was represented by cyanobacteria and diatoms that entered from the Gulf of Mexico. The range of DOC concentrations was generally high (4.4–20.9 mg l^?1) and were significantly correlated with POC, but not with chlorophyll-a concentrations. When total suspended particulate (TSP) concentrations were below 20 to 30 mg l^?1, there were significant increases in %POC and %PON of the TSP. The unusually high POC: chlorophyll-a ratios (highest value of 1423) suggested that much of the POC contained low concentrations of chlorophyll-a that had degraded during transport from wetlands in the Sabine and Neches rivers. Based on these data, this estuary can be characterized as a predominantly heterotrophic system, with low light penetrance, short particle-residence times, high DOC, and low inputs from autochthonous carbon sources.     

Lower-crustal rifting in the Rukwa Graben, East Africa

An M_w 5.9 earthquake occurred in the Lake Rukwa rift, Tanzania, on 1994 August 18, and was well recorded by 20 broad-band seismic stations at distances of 160 to 800 km and 21 broad-band stations at teleseismic distances. The regional and teleseismic waveforms have been used to investigate the source characteristics of the main shock, and also to locate aftershocks that occurred within three weeks of the main shock. Teleseismic body-wave modelling yields the following source parameters for the main shock: source depth of 25 ± 2 km, a normal fault orientation, with a horizontal tension axis striking NE-SW and an almost vertical pressure axis (Nodal Plane I: strike 126°–142°, dip 63°–66°, and rake 280°–290°; Nodal Plane II: strike 273°–289°, dip 28°–31°, and rake 235°–245°), a scalar moment of 4.1 times 10¹⁷ N m, and a 2 s impulsive source time function. Four of the largest aftershocks also nucleated at depths of 25 km, as deduced from regional sPmp–Pmp times. The nodal planes are broadly consistent with the orientation of both the Lupa and Ufipa faults, which bound the Rukwa rift to the northeast and southwest, respectively. The rupture radius of the main shock, assuming a circular fault, is estimated to be 4 km with a corresponding stress drop of 6.5 MPa. Published estimates of crustal thickness beneath the Rukwa rift indicate that the foci of the main shock and aftershocks lie at least 10 km above the Moho. The presence of lower-crustal seismicity beneath the Rukwa rift suggests that the pre-rift thermal structure of the rifted crust has not been strongly modified by the rifting, at least to depths of 25 km.     

The Darwin Rise demise: the western Pacific guyot heights trace the trans-Pacific Mendocino fracture zone

The Darwin Rise has been proposed so many times and in so many forms and places that the time has come to make a more comprehensive examination of the region. Lying on the NW Pacific Plate between the Geisha Guyots, the Mid-Pacific Mountains, the equator, and the trenches, the region is roughly bounded by magnetic anomaly M20 (147 Ma). It was subjected to a massive outpouring of lava about 105 to 120 Ma, which created the guyots and seamounts in that region. Guyots are excellent tools for studying events of long ago because they eroded in the same lowstand in the Cretaceous and guyot relief, therefore, is a surrogate for paleo-sealevel. The relief is derived by subtracting the break depth of the summit plateau of a guyot from the regional depth. Guyot relief would necessarily be less in the center than to the periphery if the feature formed on a pre-existing rise, as has been postulated. The existence of a paleo-Darwin Rise would give concentric contours for the region in question. Of the sixty guyots used in this study, thirty-seven of these guyots were surveyed using SASS multibeam in the Marcus-Wake seamount group. Twenty-three guyots were surveyed using random track single-beam sonar surveys. An entirely different scenario is shown. Data revealed a major fracture passing through the area coevally or after the guyots formed. Because the depths to the summit are not the same now, vertical tectonics occurred after subaerial erosion. This means the fracture formed during and after the erosion (roughly 105 Ma) and influenced the normal sequence of events in guyot formation. Depending on how one deciphers trends through the Hess Rise morass, SASS bathymetry shows a continuation of the Surveyor/Mendocino fracture zone swarm inside the M20 region to the NE of these data. The fracture swarm continues to the western Pacific trench system. Based on this information, if the Darwin Rise ever existed, it had to have done so elsewhere.     

Science and the desertification debate

Desertification is an environmental issue that has major environmental and social dimensions, and which has been controversial in a number of respects. The recent UN Convention on Desertification and Drought places considerable emphasis on the social dimensions of the problem and the role local peoples and NGOs have to play in tackling it. When desertification first became regarded as a major issue in the 1970s, science was seen to have a major role in understanding and solving the problem, but in some circles has been regarded as failing to contribute usefully. This paper explores the nature of scientific contributions, why science may have been seen to fail to serve the needs of policy-makers, and why scientific findings may have been misinterpreted in broader circles dealing with the issue. It concludes by identifying areas where science has still a valuable role to play in an issue that is now perhaps regarded as more political and social than scientific.     

Hydrous pyrolysis of a Type III source: fractionation effects during primary migration in natural and artificially matured samples

A core from the Cambay Shale Formation of the Cambay Basin, containing immature Type III organic matter, was pyrolysed at 300°C for different durations of time to different maturation levels. Fractionation effects were studied employing a three-step extraction technique after removal of the expelled pyrolysate. The extractable organic matter (EOM) obtained on extraction of the whole core is assumed to be that present in open pores, while that obtained on finely crushing the sample is assumed to be that present in closed pores. The EOM obtained from 1 cm chips is termed EOM from semi-open pores. The gross composition of the pyrolysates expelled during pyrolysis is not similar to the oils reservoired in the area, and there is no significant fractionation observed between expelled pyrolysates and unexpelled EOM. Our study indicates movement of fluids between closed, semi-open and open pores. In both systems, there is a higher concentration of EOM in open pores than in semi-open and closed pores, and the fraction of EOM in open pores is much greater in the artificial system than in the natural system. Fractionation effects on n-alkane and isoprenoid hydrocarbon-based parameters were also studied. n-Alkenes are present in semi-open and closed pores of the immature core and in the core after it was pyrolysed to 300°C for 6 and 48 h, but are absent in the open pores. n-Alkenes are present in closed pores in the naturally matured core. Presence of n-alkenes in the pyrolysates expelled during the 6 and 48 h experiments, but their absence in the open pores of the core, indicates that expulsion also occurs through temporary microfractures during laboratory pyrolysis, whereas in the natural system expulsion from closed pores seems to be only via semi-open and open pores.     

Calculating surface water PCO2 from foraminiferal organic δC

The δ¹³C of organic matter bound within the crystal lattice of foraminiferal calcite tests may provide a potential tracer of the isotopic composition of the surface water primary photosynthate. Using δ¹³C of the organic matter extracted from the crystal lattice and the calcite test, it is theoretically possible to estimate the paleo-surface water pCO₂. We have tailored this technique initially for the subpolar planktonic foraminifera species Globigerina bulloides. Initial surface water pCO₂ estimates from deep-sea core BOFS 5K (50°41.3′N, 21°51.9′W, water depth 3547 m) indicate that the northeast Atlantic Ocean may have been a greater sink for CO₂ during the last glacial than during the Holocene. Greatly reduced benthic foraminifera abundances, especially phytodetritus feeders, in BOFS 5K during the last glacial indicates low surface productivity. This rules out a productivity-driven CO₂ sink. The enhanced glacial CO₂ sink must, therefore, have results from a southwards shift of the centre of deep water formation.