Seasonal evolution mechanism of the East Asian winter monsoon and its interannual variability

This study investigates the space–time evolution of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and its relationship with other climate subsystems. Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function (CSEOF) analysis and the multiple regression method are used to delineate the detailed evolution of various atmospheric and surface variables in connection with the EAWM. The 120 days of winter (November 17–March 16) per year over 62 years (1948–2010) are analyzed using the NCEP daily reanalysis dataset. The first CSEOF mode of 850-hPa temperatures depicts the seasonal evolution of the EAWM. The contrast in heat capacity between the continent and the northwestern Pacific results in a differential heating in the lower troposphere. Its temporal evolution drives the strengthening and weakening of the Siberian High and the Aleutian Low. The anomalous sea level pressure pattern dictates anomalous circulation, in compliance with the geostrophic relationship. Thermal advection, in addition to net surface radiation, partly contributes to temperature variations in winter. Latent and sensible heat fluxes (thermal forcing from the ocean to the atmosphere) increase with decreased thermal advection. Anomalous upper-level circulation is closely linked to the low-level temperature anomaly in terms of the thermal wind equation. The interannual variability of the seasonal cycle of the EAWM is strongly controlled by the relative strength of the Siberian High to the Aleutian Low. A stronger than normal gradient between the two pressure systems amplifies the seasonal cycle of the EAWM. The EAWM seasonal cycle in the mid-latitude region exhibits a weak negative correlation with the Arctic Oscillation and the East Atlantic/West Russia indices.     

How do weather characteristics change in a warming climate?

The possible change in the characteristics of weather in the future should be considered as important as the mean climate change because the increasing risk of extremes is related to the variability on daily time scales. The weather characteristics can be represented by the climatological mean interdiurnal (day-to-day) variability (MIDV). This paper first assessed the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project coupled climate models’ capability to represent MIDV for the surface maximum and minimum temperature, surface wind speed and precipitation under the present climate condition. Based on the assessment, we selected three best models for projecting future change. We found that the future changes in MIDV are characterized by: (a) a marked reduction in surface maximum and minimum temperature over high latitudes during the cold season; (b) a stronger reduction in the surface minimum temperature than in the maximum temperature; (c) a reduction in surface wind speed over large parts of lands in Northern Hemisphere (NH) during NH spring; (d) a noticeable increase in precipitation in NH mid-high latitudes in NH spring and winter, and in particular over East Asia throughout most of the year.     

UVES Abundances of Stars in Nearby Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies

It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a galaxy in possession of a good quantity of gas must want to form stars. It is the details of how and why that baffle us all. The simplest theories either would have this process a carefully self-regulated affair, or one that goes completely out of control and is capable of wrecking the galaxy which hosts it. Of course the majority of galaxies seem to amble along somewhere between these two extremes, and the mean properties tend to favour a quiescent self-regulated evolutionary scenario. But there area variety of observations which require us to invoke transitory ‘bursts’ of star-formation at one time or another in most galaxy types. Several nearby dwarf spheroidal galaxies have clearly determined star-formation histories with apparent periods of zero star formation followed by periods of fairly active star formation. If we are able to understand what separated these bursts we would understand several important phenomena in galaxy evolution. Were these galaxies able to clear out their gas reservoir in a burst of star formation? How did this gas return? or did it? Have these galaxies receieved gas from the IGM instead? Could stars from these types of galaxy contribute significantly to the halo population in our Galaxy? To answer these questions we need to combine accurate stellar photometry and Colour-Magnitude Diagram interpretation with detailed metal abundances to combine a star-formation rate versus time with a range of element abundances with time. Different elements trace different evolutionary process (e.g., relative contributions of type I and II supernovae). We often aren't even sure of the abundance spread in these galaxies. We have collected detailed high resolution UVES spectra of four nearby dwarf spheroidal galaxies (Sculptor, Fornax, Leo I &; Carina) to begin to answer these questions. This is a precursor study to a more complete study with FLAMES. We presented at this meeting the initial results for the Sculptor and Fornax dwarf spheroidal galaxies which have been previously had single element (low resolution) calcium abundance studies (Tolstoy et al., 2001). See Figures 1 and 2.     

The economic impacts of banning commercial bottomfish fishing in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

This study examines the economic impacts of closing the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands bottomfish fishery, as part of a larger effort to create an effective marine protected area. An overview of the market for NWHI bottomfish in Hawaii is given using input–output data and a fishery closure analysis is conducted using public data on commercial fishing and primary information collected through interviews with wholesalers, restaurants, and retailers. Assuming the worst-case scenario, the wholesale price per pound of Onaga and Opakapaka is estimated to increase by $0.80 and $0.42, respectively. But this is unlikely, as the own-price elasticity of demand for Hawaii-caught bottomfish is found to be highly elastic and there is widespread substitution with imports. The overall economic loss is thus quite small, while the environmental gains of creating the largest marine protected area in the world could be substantial.     

Preliminary results of the multisite time-series campaign on the sdB pulsator PG 1325+101

I present a model for the formation and evolution of a massive disk galaxy, within a growing dark halo whose mass evolves according to cosmological simulations of structure formation. The galactic evolution is simulated with a new 3D chemo-dynamical code, including dark matter, stars and a multi-phase ISM. We follow the evolution from redshift z = 4.85 until the present epoch. The energy release by massive stars and supernovae prevents a rapid collapse of the baryonic matter and delays the maximum star formation until redshift z ≈ 1. The galaxy forms radially from inside-out and vertically from top-to-bottom. The feedback of stars leads to turbulent motions and large-scale flows in the ISM. As one result the galactic disk is significantly enriched by chemical elements synthesized in bulge stars.     

Storm‐coverage effect on dynamic flood‐frequency analysis: empirical data analysis

In this study, a dynamic flood‐frequency analysis model considering the storm coverage effect is proposed and applied to six sub‐basins in the Pyungchang River basin, Korea. The model proposed is composed of the rectangular pulse Poisson process model for rainfall, the Soil Conservation Service curve number method for infiltration and the geomorphoclimatic instantaneous unit hydrograph for runoff estimation. Also, the model developed by Marco and Valdes is adopted for quantifying the storm‐coverage characteristics. By comparing the results from the same model with and without the storm‐coverage effect consideration, we could quantify the storm‐coverage effect on the flood‐frequency analysis. As a result of that, we found the storm‐coverage effect was so significant that overestimation of the design flood was unavoidable without its consideration. This also becomes more serious for larger basins where the probability of complete storm coverage is quite low. However, for smaller basins, the limited number of rain gauges is found to hamper the proper quantification of the storm‐coverage characteristics. Provided with a relationship curve between the basin size and the storm coverage (as in this study), this problem could be overcome with an acceptable accuracy level. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The rotational structure of the B-X system of sulfur dimers in the spectra of Comet Hyakutake (C/1996 B2)

We have constructed line-by-line fluorescence models for the ro-vibrational bands of the B-X system of sulfur dimers (S₂). For the first time the detailed rotational lines of the bands are clearly resolved in the high-resolution echelle spectra of Comet Hyakutake (C/1996 B2), which were obtained at the Kitt Peak 4-m telescope on 26.4 March 1996 (UT). In order to construct satisfactory band models of the B-X system, we first compared the models to laboratory spectra available in literature, and then compared the models including Swings effects to the high-resolution spectra of Hyakutake. From the model fits, we derived a rotational temperature of 70±10 K, which should represent a temperature of a coma region close to the nucleus, where most of the S₂ emissions originate. We present previously proposed scenarios for the origin of S₂ in cometary comae, and compare them with our spectral analysis.     

Acoustic tomography for monitoring the Sea of Japan: a pilot experiment

A pilot experiment was conducted in the Sea of Japan (also called the East Sea) in September-October 1999, to assess the possibility of using acoustic tomographic techniques for monitoring water mass structure and dynamics. Acoustic m-sequence signals at various frequencies between 250 and 634 Hz were transmitted from bottom-mounted acoustic sources in shallow water off the coast of Vladivostok to vertical-array receiving systems deployed off the north coast of Ulleung-Do island (S. Korea), 558 km to the south. The data are analyzed for temporal correlation, time spread, and transmission loss and are interpreted in terms of a tomographic system for monitoring the East Sea.     

Application of generalized contaminant retardation factor to a multi‐phase system

In this study, a generalized contaminant retardation factor applicable to a multiphase system where various types of colloids exist simultaneously with contaminants is derived and incorporated into an equilibrium model which is successfully applied to experimental data for which phenanthrene was used as hydrophobic organic contaminants and dissolved organic matter (DOM) or bacteria as mobile carriers. Based on the parameter values for the experimental data regarding the association of phenanthrene with solid matrix, DOM and various bacterial isolates, numerical experiments are performed to examine the transport behaviour of hydrophobic organic contaminants in various types of the multiphase system. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the extent of contaminant transport enhancement depends on the adsorption affinity of the colloid, its concentration and its mobility, and that the importance of a third phase to contaminant transport needs to be evaluated carefully with respect to the relevance of experimental conditions applied to realistic environmental conditions. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.