Combination of TOPEX/POSEIDON data with a hydrographic inversion for determination of the oceanic general circulation and its relation to geoid accuracy

A global estimate of the absolute oceanic general circulation from a geostrophic inversion of in situ hydrographic data is tested against and then combined with an estimate obtained from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetric data and a geoid model computed using the JGM-3 gravity-field solution. Within the quantitative uncertainties of both the hydrographic inversion and the geoid estimate, the two estimates derived by very different methods are consistent. When the in situ inversion is combined with the altimetry/geoid scheme using a recursive inverse procedure, a new solution, fully consistent with both hydrography and altimetry, is found. There is, however, little reduction in the uncertainties of the calculated ocean circulation and its mass and heat fluxes because the best available geoid estimate remains noisy relative to the purely oceano-graphic inferences. The conclusion drawn from this is that the comparatively large errors present in the existing geoid models now limit the ability of satellite altimeter data to improve directly the general ocean circulation models derived from in situ measurements. Because improvements in the geoid could be realized through a dedicated spaceborne gravity recovery mission, the impact of hypothetical much better, future geoid estimates on the circulation uncertainty is also quantified, showing significant hypothetical reductions in the uncertainties of oceanic transport calculations, Full ocean general circulation models could better exploit both existing oceanographic data and future gravity-mission data, but their present use is severely limited by the inability to quantify their error budgets.     

Comparing the performance of TRIGRS and TiVaSS in spatial and temporal prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides

This study compares the performance of transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope stability (TRIGRS) model and time-variant slope stability (TiVaSS) model in the prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. TRIGRS employs one-dimensional (1-D) subsurface flow to simulate the infiltration rate, whereas a three-dimensional (3-D) model is utilized in TiVaSS. The former has been widely used in landslide modeling, while the latter was developed only recently. Both programs are used for the spatiotemporal prediction of shallow landslides caused by rainfall. This study uses the July 2011 landslide event that occurred in Mt. Umyeon, Seoul, Korea, for validation. The performance of the two programs is evaluated by comparison with data of the actual landslides in both location and timing by using a landslide ratio for each factor of safety class (\({\text{LR}}_{\text{class}}\) index), which was developed for addressing point-like landslide locations. Moreover, the influence of surface flow on landslide initiation is assessed. The results show that the shallow landslides predicted by the two models are highly consistent with those of the observed sliding sites, although the performance of TiVaSS is slightly better. Overland flow affects the buildup of the pressure head and reduces the slope stability, although this influence was not significant in this case. A slight increase in the predicted unstable area from 19.30 to 19.93% was recorded when the overland flow was considered. It is concluded that both models are suitable for application in the study area. However, although it is a well-established model requiring less input data and shorter run times, TRIGRS produces less accurate results.     

Large seasonal changes in the recharge of seawater in a subterranean estuary revealed by a radon tracer

Activities of radon (²²²Rn) in groundwater were continuously monitored in a saline aquifer from September 2010 to July 2011. The activities of ²²²Rn ranged from 200 to 4300 Bq m^?3, with a large seasonal variation. Because the activity of ²²²Rn in seawater is low, ²²²Rn in saline groundwater must be produced in the aquifer from radium (²²⁶Ra) in rocks and sediments. The ²²²Rn activities were higher in the warm‐dry seasons (September–November 2010 and April–May 2011) when the saline aquifer was stable. In contrast, the lowest ²²²Rn activities were observed in the cold‐dry season (December 2010 and January–March 2011), because of the effective exchange between groundwater and seawater. In addition, sudden decreases of ²²²Rn activities coincided with episodic drops in groundwater temperatures. These results reveal that lower seawater temperature in winter may result in density‐driven seawater intrusion. During the wet season (June–July 2011), ²²²Rn activities were more clearly affected by semi‐monthly and diurnal tidal pumping, showing higher ²²²Rn activities during low and spring tides. Such a tidal effect was not clearly observed during the warm‐dry and cold‐dry seasons. This result implies that the residence time of SGD in coastal zones is significantly affected by seasonal changes in driving forces such as tidal pumping and seawater intrusion. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tintinnid species as biological indicators for monitoring intrusion of the warm oceanic waters into Korean coastal waters

This study examined seasonal and annual occurrences of warm oceanic tintinnid species in southern Korea coastal waters. The indicative species of tintinnids was monitored using three approaches: monitoring from cruises traveling from the warm pool in the western North Pacific to the Korea Strait; biweekly or monthly monitoring in the Korea Strait; and daily monitoring in the nearshore water. Annual pulses of warm oceanic indicator species were regularly observed in the Korea Strait. In September 2008 recorded a maximum species number of warm water indicators, a representative species for warm oceanic waters, Climacocylis scalaroides was simultaneously detected in the nearshore water as well as the Korea Strait. The result indicates that the greater warm water extension into Korean coastal areas was in September 2008. Sharp declines in species diversity were observed in the transitional area between neritic and Kuroshio zone in East China Sea (ECS). Epiplocyloides reticulata, reported previously as a Kuroshio indicator, was considered an ECS indicator species, as it was undetected in the western North Pacific central zone but was found abundantly in the ECS. Tintinnid species can be used as biological indicators to detect the inflow of warm oceanic waters into Korean coastal waters.     

Proposal for a heat balance model tailored to the Korean peninsula

This study proposes a model that estimates optimal expected temperature for thermal comfort at various levels of relative humidity, wind speed, mean radiation temperature, metabolic rate, and clothing insulation, while improving the variables of the mean radiation temperature. By including the results of numerical and observational data testing, the improved model considers mean radiant temperatures more comprehensively than the previous model. Changes in expected temperatures for thermal comfort at various mean radiation temperatures showed that the outdoor temperature must decrease as the length of outdoor exposure increases. The expected temperature for thermal comfort must be lower at higher metabolic rates. The expected temperature does not change as wind speed increases when the mean radiant temperature is low. However, as mean radiant temperature increases, the expected temperatures change depending on the wind speed.     

Simulations of energy balance components at snow-dominated montane watershed by land surface models

The quantification of energy interactions among land surface, atmosphere, and surface vegetation is significant to comprehend the hydrological cycle in montane watersheds. Moreover, elevation change is an essential in causing variations in energy fluxes. Thus, estimating the major components of energy interactions is essential for better understanding of the hydrological process. The advanced land surface models (LSMs); the common land model (CLM) and variables infiltration capacity (VIC) are used to estimate accurate hydrometeorological variables. These hydrometeorological variables such as net radiation and sensible, latent, and ground heat fluxes were estimated using CLM and VIC at upper and lower meteorological stations in Sierra Nevada Mountain, California, USA. The estimated fluxes were compared with observations at each site. The estimated daily and monthly net radiation and sensible heat flux from both models showed good agreement with the observations (R ≥ 0.84). The CLM-modeled estimates showed lower trends during the rainfall periods, which occurred mainly during winter at both sites. In comparison, the estimated daily and monthly latent heat flux from CLM at both sites showed better results with lower RMSE and bias than that from VIC, which underestimated latent heat flux. Both models overestimated ground heat flux, and the variation trend was similar to observation. For sensitivity analysis, according to elevation change, all the estimated energy fluxes had slightly different values at the upper and lower met stations. In future studies, parameterization for the LSMs will be conducted for more robust estimations of hydrometeorological variables in montane watersheds.     

Benthic changes at McMurdo Station, Antarctica following local sewage treatment and regional iceberg-mediated productivity decline

McMurdo Station, the largest research station in Antarctica, ceased on-site garbage dumping in 1988 and initiated sewage treatment in 2003. In 2003-2004 its sea-ice regime was altered by the massive B-15A and C-19 iceberg groundings in the Ross Sea, approximately 100 km distant. Here we follow macrofaunal response to these changes relative to a baseline sampled since 1988. In the submarine garbage dump, surface contaminants levels have declined but associated macrofaunal recolonization is not yet evident. Although sewage-associated macrofauna were still abundant around the outfall nearly 2 yr after initiation of treatment, small changes downcurrent as far as 434 m from the outfall suggest some community recovery. Widespread community changes in 2003-2004, not seen in the decade previously, suggests that the benthos collectively responded to major changes in sea-ice regime and phytoplankton production caused by the iceberg groundings.     

Eastern Asian hydrometeorology simulation using the Regional Climate System Model

We present the hydrometeorology of eastern Asia during April 1995 simulated by the Regional Climate System Model. The amount and location of simulated monthly precipitation agrees well with observations. Soil water content variation was closely correlated with precipitation. Land-surface evaporation and the surface energy budget were strongly controlled by soil moisture content. A sensitivity test with reduced initial soil moisture content suggested that near-surface soil moisture spins up quickly after heavy precipitation events. However, variations in the initial soil moisture field may alter details of the simulated precipitation which can introduce further complexity in climate simulations.     

UVES Abundances of Stars in Nearby Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies

It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a galaxy in possession of a good quantity of gas must want to form stars. It is the details of how and why that baffle us all. The simplest theories either would have this process a carefully self-regulated affair, or one that goes completely out of control and is capable of wrecking the galaxy which hosts it. Of course the majority of galaxies seem to amble along somewhere between these two extremes, and the mean properties tend to favour a quiescent self-regulated evolutionary scenario. But there area variety of observations which require us to invoke transitory ‘bursts’ of star-formation at one time or another in most galaxy types. Several nearby dwarf spheroidal galaxies have clearly determined star-formation histories with apparent periods of zero star formation followed by periods of fairly active star formation. If we are able to understand what separated these bursts we would understand several important phenomena in galaxy evolution. Were these galaxies able to clear out their gas reservoir in a burst of star formation? How did this gas return? or did it? Have these galaxies receieved gas from the IGM instead? Could stars from these types of galaxy contribute significantly to the halo population in our Galaxy? To answer these questions we need to combine accurate stellar photometry and Colour-Magnitude Diagram interpretation with detailed metal abundances to combine a star-formation rate versus time with a range of element abundances with time. Different elements trace different evolutionary process (e.g., relative contributions of type I and II supernovae). We often aren't even sure of the abundance spread in these galaxies. We have collected detailed high resolution UVES spectra of four nearby dwarf spheroidal galaxies (Sculptor, Fornax, Leo I &; Carina) to begin to answer these questions. This is a precursor study to a more complete study with FLAMES. We presented at this meeting the initial results for the Sculptor and Fornax dwarf spheroidal galaxies which have been previously had single element (low resolution) calcium abundance studies (Tolstoy et al., 2001). See Figures 1 and 2.