European temperature records of the past five centuries based on documentary/instrumental information compared to climate simulations

Two European temperature reconstructions for the past half-millennium, January-to-April air temperature for Stockholm (Sweden) and seasonal temperature for a Central European region, both derived from the analysis of documentary sources and long instrumental records, are compared with the output of climate simulations with the model ECHO-G. The analysis is complemented by comparisons with the long (early)-instrumental record of Central England Temperature (CET). Both approaches to study past climates (simulations and reconstructions) are burdened with uncertainties. The main objective of this comparative analysis is to identify robust features and weaknesses in each method which may help to improve models and reconstruction methods. The results indicate a general agreement between simulations obtained with temporally changing external forcings and the reconstructed Stockholm and CET records for the multi-centennial temperature trend over the recent centuries, which is not reproduced in a control simulation. This trend is likely due to the long-term change in external forcing. Additionally, the Stockholm reconstruction and the CET record also show a clear multi-decadal warm episode peaking around AD 1730, which is absent in the simulations. Neither the reconstruction uncertainties nor the model internal climate variability can easily explain this difference. Regarding the interannual variability, the Stockholm series displays, in some periods, higher amplitudes than the simulations but these differences are within the statistical uncertainty and further decrease if output from a regional model driven by the global model is used. The long-term trend of the CET series agrees less well with the simulations. The reconstructed temperature displays, for all seasons, a smaller difference between the present climate and past centuries than is seen in the simulations. Possible reasons for these differences may be related to a limitation of the traditional ‘indexing’ technique for converting documentary evidence to temperature values to capture long-term climate changes, because the documents often reflect temperatures relative to the contemporary authors’ own perception of what constituted ‘normal’ conditions. By contrast, the amplitude of the simulated and reconstructed inter-annual variability agrees rather well.     

Different Asian Monsoon Rainfall Responses to Idealized Orography Sensitivity Experiments in the HadGEM3-GA6 and FGOALS-FAMIL Global Climate Models

Recent work has shown the dominance of the Himalaya in supporting the Indian summer monsoon(ISM),perhaps by surface sensible heating along its southern slope and by mechanical blocking acting to separate moist tropical flow from drier midlatitude air.Previous studies have also shown that Indian summer rainfall is largely unaffected in sensitivity experiments that remove only the Tibetan Plateau.However,given the large biases in simulating the monsoon in CMIP5 models,such results may be model dependent.This study investigates the impact of orographic forcing from the Tibetan Plateau,Himalaya and Iranian Plateau on the ISM and East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) in the UK Met Office's Had GEM3-GA6 and China's Institute of Atmospheric Physics FGOALS-FAMIL global climate models.The models chosen feature oppositesigned biases in their simulation of the ISM rainfall and circulation climatology.The changes to ISM and EASM circulation across the sensitivity experiments are similar in both models and consistent with previous studies.However,considerable differences exist in the rainfall responses over India and China,and in the detailed aspects such as onset and retreat dates.In particular,the models show opposing changes in Indian monsoon rainfall when the Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau orography are removed.Our results show that a multi-model approach,as suggested in the forthcoming Global Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project(GMMIP) associated with CMIP6,is needed to clarify the impact of orographic forcing on the Asian monsoon and to fully understand the implications of model systematic error.     

Multi-model projections of twenty-first century North Pacific winter wave climate under the IPCC A2 scenario

A dynamical wave model implemented over the North Pacific Ocean was forced with winds from three coupled global climate models (CGCMs) run under a medium-to-high scenario for greenhouse gas emissions through the twenty-first century. The results are analyzed with respect to changes in upper quantiles of significant wave height (90th and 99th percentile H_S) during boreal winter. The three CGCMs produce surprisingly similar patterns of change in winter wave climate during the century, with waves becoming 10–15 % smaller over the lower mid-latitudes of the North Pacific, particularly in the central and western ocean. These decreases are closely associated with decreasing windspeeds along the southern flank of the main core of the westerlies. At higher latitudes, 99th percentile wave heights generally increase, though the patterns of change are less uniform than at lower latitudes. The increased wave heights at high latitudes appear to be due a variety of wind-related factors including both increased windspeeds and changes in the structure of the wind field, these varying from model to model. For one of the CGCMs, a commonly used statistical approach for estimating seasonal quantiles of H_S on the basis of seasonal mean sea level pressure (SLP) is used to develop a regression model from 60 years of twentieth century data as a training set, and then applied using twenty-first century SLP data. The statistical model reproduces the general pattern of decreasing twenty-first century wave heights south of ~40 N, but underestimates the magnitude of the changes by ~50–70 %, reflecting relatively weak coupling between sea level pressure and wave heights in the CGCM data and loss of variability in the statistically projected wave heights.     

Postglacial chironomid assemblage succession in northernmost Ungava Peninsula,Canada

Sediment cores spanning the postglacial period were recovered from two coastal freshwater basins located 300 km apart in northernmost Ungava (Nunavik, Canada). A basal date from the sequence recovered near Wakeham Bay suggests that the region was ice‐free by as early as 9600 cal. a BP. The initial development of both investigated lacustrine ecosystems was characterised by chironomid assemblages strongly dominated by the Subtribe Tanytarsina. These early postglacial assemblages showed greatly reduced diversity but much greater abundance than during subsequent periods of lake evolution. An abrupt and distinct turnover in sedimentary chironomid assemblage composition and productivity, marked by a switch to a dominance of Orthocladiinae, occurred around 6 ka BP. This turnover likely corresponds with a significant disturbance in the regional environment, which could be linked to the final disappearance of the last remnants of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. These findings, based on the first palaeolimnological investigations undertaken in northernmost Ungava, provide new insights into lateglacial and postglacial faunal recolonisation patterns in aquatic ecosystems of the eastern Canadian Arctic. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Experimental and numerical investigations on CO2 injection and enhanced gas recovery effects in Altmark gas field (Central Germany)

The feasibility of CO₂ storage and enhanced gas recovery (EGR) effects in the mature Altmark natural gas field in Central Germany has been studied in this paper. The investigations were comprehensive and comprise the characterization of the litho- and diagenetic facies, mineral content, geochemical composition, the petrophysical properties of the reservoir rocks with respect to their potential reactivity to CO₂ as well as reservoir simulation studies to evaluate the CO₂ wellbore injectivity and displacement efficiency of the residual gas by the injected CO₂. The Rotliegend sediments of the Altmark pilot injection area exhibit distinct mineralogical, geochemical, and petrophysical features related to litho- and diagenetic facies types. The reservoir rock reactivity to CO₂ has been studied in autoclave experiments and associated effects on two-phase transport properties have been examined by means of routine and special core analysis before and after the laboratory runs. Dissolution of calcite and anhydrite during the short-term treatments leading to the enhancements of permeability and porosity as well as stabilization of the water saturation relevant for CO₂ injection have been observed. Numerical simulation of the injection process and EGR effects in a sector of the Altmark field coupled with a wellbore model revealed the possibility of injecting the CO₂ gas at temperatures as low as 10 °C and pressures around 40 bar achieving effective inflow in the reservoir without phase transition in the wellbore. The small ratio of injected CO₂ volume versus reservoir volume indicated no significant EGR effects. However, the retention and storage capacity of CO₂ will be maximized. The migration/extension of CO₂ varies as a function of heterogeneity both in the layers and in the reservoir. The investigation of CO₂ extension and pressure propagation suggested no breakthrough of CO₂ at the prospective production well during the 3-year injection period studied.     

Impacts of shrimp farming in Bangladesh: Challenges and alternatives

Shrimp farming is growing in Bangladesh due to suitable agro-climatic conditions, adequate water resources, cheap labour force, international donor agencies and the involvement of multinational corporations. Although it provides immediate economic benefits, contributes to poverty reduction and food security, as well as generates employment from seed collectors to exporters, it has also been facing a host of challenges. They hinder the sustainable development of this otherwise thriving sector. This paper aims to expound the hindrances and challenges for sustainable shrimp farming in Bangladesh by means of reviewing the available scientific literature. It finds that socioeconomic impacts such as traditional livelihood displacement, social unrests and market fluctuations are hindering the sustainable development of shrimp farming in Bangladesh. Similarly, environmental impacts such as mangrove degradation, salt water intrusion, sedimentation, pollution and disease outbreaks are found to be obstacles for the development of sustainable shrimp farming. Inappropriate management practices and inadequate plans regarding water quality, seed supply, irrigation facilities and fishery resources, added to institutional weaknesses, jeopardize the future growth of shrimp farming. Therefore, this paper shall provide substantial input to set the directions that research for alternatives can take and that can contribute to the sustainability of shrimp farming.     

Propagation of flare protons in the solar atmosphere

The velocity dispersion for a large number of solar proton events is analyzed in the energy regime of 10–60 MeV. It is found for all events that the time from the flare to particle maximum t _m is well represented by a sum of two components. The first component which is energy independent describes the propagation in the solar atmosphere, the second component describes the propagation in the interplanetary medium giving a velocity dispersion v × t _m = const. The additional study of time intensity profiles, onset times, and multispaceprobe observations reveals that the propagation in the solar atmosphere consists of three processes: (1) A rapid transport process in the initial ( 1 h) phase after the event fills up a fast propagation region (FPR), which may extend up to 60° from the flare site and which is tentatively identified with a large unipolar magnetic cell as seen on H synoptic charts, (2) a large-scale drift process which is energy independent with drift velocities v _D in the range 1° v _D 4°h^-1, and simultaneously (3) a diffusion process which yields the general broadening of the intensity time profiles for eastern hemisphere events, which is, however, of less importance than previously assumed.     

The remote determination of the mean kinetic temperature of planets and satellites having a negligible atmosphere

A novel method, called the crossover technique, has been devised for the remote determination of the surface temperature of planets, satellites, and asteroids having a negligible atmosphere. The method is discussed using new spectra of Mars as an example, and it is shown how it might be extended to other solar system objects. The accuracy of the method, both absolutely and in comparison to other methods, is also considered.