Back analysis of landslide susceptibility zonation mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake: an assessment of the reliability of susceptibility zoning maps

The October 2005 earthquake triggered several thousand landslides in the Lesser Himalaya of Kashmir in northern Pakistan and India. Analyses of ASTER satellite imagery from 2001 were compared with a study undertaken in 2005; the results show the extent and nature of pre- and co-/post-seismic landsliding. Within a designated study area of ~2,250 km², the number of landslides increased from 369 in 2001 to 2,252 in October 2005. Assuming a balanced baseline landsliding frequency over the 4 years, most of the new landslides were likely triggered by the 2005 earthquake and its aftershocks. These landslides mainly happened in specific geologic formations, along faults, rivers and roads, and in shrubland/grassland and agricultural land. Preliminary results from repeat photographs from 2005 and 2006 after the snowmelt season reveal that much of the ongoing landsliding occurred along rivers and roads, and the extensive earthquake-induced fissuring. Although the susceptibility zoning success rate for 2001 was low, many of the co-/post-seismic landsliding in 2005 occurred in areas that had been defined as being potentially dangerous on the 2001 map. While most of the area in 2001 was (very) highly susceptible to future landsliding, most of the area in 2005 was only moderate to low susceptible, that is, most of the landsliding in 2005 actually occurred in the potentially dangerous areas on the 2001 map. This study supports the view that although susceptibility zoning maps represent a powerful tool in natural hazard management, caution is needed when developing and using such maps.     

Flood frequency analysis of river swat using Log Pearson type 3, Generalized Extreme Value,Normal, and Gumbel Max distribution methods

In Pakistan, floods are among the most devastating and recurring natural hazards. Flood hazard assessment requires flood event magnitude and probability of occurrence. Flood frequency analysis is the most common technique used for the at-site estimation of flood recurrence magnitude. This paper evaluates four most commonly used distribution methods, i.e., Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Log Pearson 3 (LP3), Gumbel Max, and Normal for the flood frequency and estimation of flood recurrence. Different hydrological stations data namely Khwazakhela, Chakdarra, Panjkora, and Munda Headwork located at Swat river was taken from Provincial Irrigation Department, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The analysis is done for 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year return periods by using annual maximum discharge data from 1980 to 2016 (37 yr). Three goodness-of-fit tests were applied to the fitted distributions, i.e., Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Anderson–Darling, and Chi-squared at 5% significance level. Results indicate that LP3 and GEV were ranked top two distributions at all locations while Gumbel Max and Normal were the least fitted having rank 3 and 4, respectively. Based on the goodness-of-fit ranking, LP3 was selected for the estimation of flood magnitude and return periods at Khwazakhela. Designed hydrographs based on probabilistic approach and flood 2010 hydrograph are presented for flood simulation.     

Petrogensis and tectonic setting of the Yemaquan granite from the iron‐polymetallic ore area of Qimantag,Eastern Kunlun Mountains,Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Being a part of the Paleo‐Tethys Ocean, closing of the Buqingshan‐Anyemaqen oceanic basin left a rich geologic record in the East Kunlun Orogenic Belt. The genesis and tectonic setting of the granites including quartz monzodiorite, granodiorite and mozogranite is discussed in light of the geochemical and U–Pb chronological data obtained. U–Pb dating studies on zircon from the quartz monzodiorite and monzogranite of the research area yielded ages of 220.11 ± 0.49 Ma ((Mean Square Weighted Deviates) MSWD = 0.046) and 223.33 ± 0.54 Ma (MSWD = 0.14), respectively, by Laser Ablation Multiple Collector Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA–MC–ICP–MS) method. According to sedimentological and structural investigations, the Paleo‐Tethys Ocean in the Qimantag region began to close at about 235 Ma, and completely disapperared at about 220 Ma. The three types of granites in this study are considered to intrude the syn‐ to post‐collisional stages. The quartz monzodiorite and granodiorite belong to the I‐type granite whereas the monzogranite is of the S‐type granite. These two types of granites were formed by different ways of partial melting: first, partial melting of the lower crust took place as a result of asthenosphere upwelling triggered by break‐up of the leading edge or tearing of the descending oceanic slab. Subsequently partial melting of the middle–lower crust was caused by the underplating of basaltic magma formed by partial melting of the mantle wedge fluxed by fluids liberated by the oceanic slab dehydration. The magma responsible for the formation of S‐type granites appears to have originated from partial melting of the upper crustal material at a shallower level with a clear signature of continental crust.