Seismic sources for southern Pakistan and seismic hazard assessment of Karachi

Natural Hazards - Karachi is Pakistan’s largest city with population exceeding 18 million and is amongst the top five most congested cities in the world. Karachi has experienced no earthquake...     

Equivalent continuum strain calculations based on 3D particle kinematic measurements of sand

Constitutive modeling of granular materials has been a subject of extensive research for many years. While the calculation of the Cauchy stress tensor using the discrete element method has been well established in the literature, the formulation and interpretation of the strain tensor are not as well documented. According to Bagi, 1 researchers mostly adopt well‐known continuum or discrete microstructural approaches to calculate strains within granular materials. However, neither of the 2 approaches can fully capture the behavior of granular materials. They are considered complementary to each other where each has its own strengths and limitations in solving granular‐mechanics problems. Zhang and Regueiro 2 proposed an equivalent continuum approach to calculating finite strain measures at the local level in granular materials subjected to large deformations. They used three‐dimensional discrete element method results to compare the proposed strains measures. This paper presents an experimental application of the Zhang and Regueiro 2 approach using three‐dimensional synchrotron microcomputed tomography images of a sheared Ottawa sand specimen. Invariant Eulerian finite strain measures were calculated for representative element volumes within the specimen. The spatial maps of Eulerian octahedral shear and volumetric strain were used to identify zones of intense shearing within the specimen and compared well with maps of incremental particle translation and rotation for the same specimen. The local Eulerian volumetric strain was compared to the global volumetric strains, which also can be considered as an averaging of all local Eulerian volumetric strains.     

Collapsing loess-like soil in western Saudi Arabia

Earth fissures have developed at Wadi Al-Yutamah, western Saudi Arabia. The fissues are associated with land subsidence which is considered to be due to both rapid draw down of the ground-water level and hydrocompaction of the wadi soil after flooding. This phenomenon is relatively recent in the area.The wadi soil was investigated and classified in the field, and disturbed and undisturbed samples were collected for laboratory testing and analysis. The engineering properties of the wadi soils were determined, including in situ field density, specific gravity, liquid limit, plastic limit, plasticity index, shrinkage limit, and consolidation characteristics such as total settlement and coefficient of subsidence (collapse).Four types of silty soil of different colours were identified, in addition to yellowish-brown sand (representing the dunes) which accumulated on the surface of the study area. The silty soils include yellowish-brown silty sand, yellowish-gray silt, pale brown silt and yellowish-brown clayey silt. The results of X-ray diffraction analysis indicated that the clay is mainly kaolinite and illite with minor smectite. The dominant soil type in the study area is silt of low plasticity, high void ratio and low density which decreased with depth. This soil was classified as loess-like materials.The studied soils are of a collapsing type, and settlement is greatly increased by excessive wetting under constant pressure. The calculated coefficients of subsidence (collapse) of the soils at different depths generally increased with decreasing soil density and ranged between 3·1% and 10·8%. The wadi soils are considered to pose a moderate problem when wetted.     

DHI evaluation by combining rock physics simulation and statistical techniques for fluid identification of Cambrian-to-Cretaceous clastic reservoirs in Pakistan

The use of seismic direct hydrocarbon indicators is very common in exploration and reservoir development to minimise exploration risk and to optimise the location of production wells. DHIs can be enhanced using AVO methods to calculate seismic attributes that approximate relative elastic properties. In this study, we analyse the sensitivity to pore fluid changes of a range of elastic properties by combining rock physics studies and statistical techniques and determine which provide the best basis for DHIs. Gassmann fluid substitution is applied to the well log data and various elastic properties are evaluated by measuring the degree of separation that they achieve between gas sands and wet sands. The method has been applied successfully to well log data from proven reservoirs in three different siliciclastic environments of Cambrian, Jurassic, and Cretaceous ages. We have quantified the sensitivity of various elastic properties such as acoustic and extended elastic (EEI) impedances, elastic moduli (K _sat and K _sat–μ), lambda–mu–rho method (λρ and μρ), P-to-S-wave velocity ratio (V _P/V _S), and Poisson’s ratio (σ) at fully gas/water saturation scenarios. The results are strongly dependent on the local geological settings and our modeling demonstrates that for Cambrian and Cretaceous reservoirs, K _sat–μ, EEI, V _P/V _S, and σ are more sensitive to pore fluids (gas/water). For the Jurassic reservoir, the sensitivity of all elastic and seismic properties to pore fluid reduces due to high overburden pressure and the resultant low porosity. Fluid indicators are evaluated using two metrics: a fluid indicator coefficient based on a Gaussian model and an overlap coefficient which makes no assumptions about a distribution model. This study will provide a potential way to identify gas sand zones in future exploration.     

Basement structural architecture and hydrocarbon conduit potential of polygonal faults in the Cooper‐Eromanga Basin,Australia

A thorough and complete understanding of the structural geology and evolution of the Cooper‐Eromanga Basin has been hampered by low‐resolution seismic data that becomes particularly difficult to interpret below the thick Permian coal measures. As a result, researchers are tentative to interpret the basement fault architecture within the basin, which is largely undefined. To provide a better understanding of the basement fault geometry, all available two‐dimensional seismic lines together with 12 three‐dimensional seismic surveys were structurally interpreted with assistance from seismic attribute analysis. The Upper Cretaceous Cadna‐owie Formation and top Permian reflectors were analysed using a common seismic attribute technique (incoherency) that was used to infer the presence of faults that may have otherwise been overlooked. Detailed basement fault maps for each seismic survey were constructed and used in conjunction with two‐dimensional seismic data interpretation to produce a regional basement fault map. Large north‐northeast–south‐southwest‐striking sinistral strike–slip faults were identified within the Patchawarra Trough appearing to splay from the main northeast–southwest‐striking ridge. These sinistral north‐northeast–south‐southwest‐striking faults, together with field‐scale southeast–northwest‐striking dextral strike–slip faults, are optimally oriented to have potentially developed as a conjugated fault set under a south‐southeast–north‐northwest‐oriented strike–slip stress regime. Geomechanical modelling for a regionally extensive system of Cretaceous polygonal faults was performed to calculate the Leakage Factor and Dilation Tendency of individual faults. Faults that extend into Lower Cretaceous oil‐rich reservoirs with strikes of between 060°N and 140°N and a high to near‐vertical dip angle were identified to most likely be acting as conduits for the tertiary migration of hydrocarbons from known Lower Cretaceous hydrocarbon reservoirs into shallow Cretaceous sediments. This research provides valuable information on the regional basement fault architecture and a more detailed exploration target for the Cooper‐Eromanga Basin, which were previously not available in literature.     

Salinisation de l’aquifère libre de la Chaouia côtière (Azemmour-Tnine Chtouka), Maroc

L’aquifère libre de la Chaouia côtière constitue un exemple des aquifères les plus exploités au Maroc. Ce travail est consacré à l’étude des processus de la salinisation des eaux souterraines par l’analyse physico-chimique de 39 puits répartis dans la zone. Deux types de faciès ont été révélés, l’un est chloruré-sodique dans la frange côtière ; l’autre faciès est de type chloruré bicarbonaté-calcique caractérisant les eaux exploitées dans les calcaires marneux du Crétacé. L’influence marine (aérosols et intrusion marine), la dissolution/précipitation de la roche aquifère et l’infiltration des eaux d’irrigation, sont parmi les causes de l’augmentation de la salinité des eaux souterraines, en plus de l’exploitation excessive de l’eau souterraine.     

Updated earthquake catalogue for seismic hazard analysis in Pakistan

A reliable and homogenized earthquake catalogue is essential for seismic hazard assessment in any area. This article describes the compilation and processing of an updated earthquake catalogue for Pakistan. The earthquake catalogue compiled in this study for the region (quadrangle bounded by the geographical limits 40–83° N and 20–40° E) includes 36,563 earthquake events, which are reported as 4.0–8.3 moment magnitude (M_W) and span from 25 AD to 2016. Relationships are developed between the moment magnitude and body, and surface wave magnitude scales to unify the catalogue in terms of magnitude M_W. The catalogue includes earthquakes from Pakistan and neighbouring countries to minimize the effects of geopolitical boundaries in seismic hazard assessment studies. Earthquakes reported by local and international agencies as well as individual catalogues are included. The proposed catalogue is further used to obtain magnitude of completeness after removal of dependent events by using four different algorithms. Finally, seismicity parameters of the seismic sources are reported, and recommendations are made for seismic hazard assessment studies in Pakistan.     

Seismic fragility functions for code compliant and non-compliant RC SMRF structures in Pakistan

Fragility functions are derived for low-rise code compliant & non-compliant special moment resisting frames (SMRFs). Non-compliant SMRFs those built in low strength concrete and lacking confining ties in joint panel zones, commonly found in developing countries. Shake table tests were performed on single-storey and two-storey 1:3 reduced scale representative frames to understand the damage mechanism and develop deformation-based damage scale. The non-compliant SMRF experienced column flexure cracking, longitudinal bar-slip in beam and observed with cover concrete spalling from the joint panels. The code compliant SMRF experienced flexure cracks in beam/column, and experienced joint cracking under extreme shaking. Numerical modeling technique is developed for inelastic modeling of reinforced concrete frame with beam bar-slip and joint damageability using SeismoStruct. Natural accelerograms were used to analyze the considered frames through incremental dynamic analyses in SeismoStruct. A probabilistic based approach was used to derive fragility functions for the considered frames. An example case study is presented for damageability evaluation of structures for earthquakes of various return periods (43, 72, 475, 2475 years).     

Artificial neural network simulation for prediction of suspended sediment concentration in the River Ramganga,Ganges Basin,India

The relation between the water discharge (Q) and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) of the River Ramganga at Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh, in the Himalayas, has been modeled using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The current study validates the practical capability and usefulness of this tool for simulating complex nonlinear, real world, river system processes in the Himalayan scenario. The modeling approach is based on the time series data collected from January to December (2008-2010) for Q and SSC. Three ANNs (T1-T3) with different network configurations have been developed and trained using the Levenberg Marquardt Back Propagation Algorithm in the Matlab routines. Networks were optimized using the enumeration technique, and, finally, the best network is used to predict the SSC values for the year 2011. The values thus obtained through the ANN model are compared with the observed values of SSC. The coefficient of determination (R2), for the optimal network was found to be 0.99. The study not only provides insight into ANN modeling in the Himalayan river scenario, but it also focuses on the importance of understanding a river basin and the factors that affect the SSC, before attempting to model it. Despite the temporal variations in the study area, it is possible to model and successfully predict the SSC values with very simplistic ANN models.