Opportunistic natural experiments using digital telemetry: a transit disruption case study

ABSTRACT

In the past decade society has entered a technological period characterized by handheld computing that supports input and processing from numerous sensors. Today’s mobile phones offer the ability to integrate input from sensors monitoring various external and internal sources (e.g., accelerometer, magnetometer, microphone, GPS, wireless Internet, and Bluetooth). Furthermore, these raw inputs can be integrated and processed in ways that can offer novel representations of human behaviour. As a result, new opportunities to examine and better understand human spatial behaviour are available; one such application is the constant monitoring of a group of people over an extended period of time. Such a research setting lends itself to natural experiments that emerge as a result of regular and on-going observations. We report here on the observation of a natural experiment that took place in the context of a month-long monitoring study of 28 participants using mobile phone-based ubiquitous sensor monitoring. The implications for public health and transportation planning are discussed.     

Spatial Modeling of Geometallurgical Properties: Techniques and a Case Study

High-resolution spatial numerical models of metallurgical properties constrained by geological controls and more extensively by measured grade and geomechanical properties constitute an important part of geometallurgy. Geostatistical and other numerical techniques are adapted and developed to construct these high-resolution models accounting for all available data. Important issues that must be addressed include unequal sampling of the metallurgical properties versus grade assays, measurements at different scale, and complex nonlinear averaging of many metallurgical parameters. This paper establishes techniques to address each of these issues with the required implementation details and also demonstrates geometallurgical mineral deposit characterization for a copper–molybdenum deposit in South America. High-resolution models of grades and comminution indices are constructed, checked, and are rigorously validated. The workflow demonstrated in this case study is applicable to many other deposit types.     

Modeling the Population Effects of Hypoxia on Atlantic Croaker (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Micropogonias undulatus</Emphasis>) in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: Part 1—Model Description and Idealized Hypoxia

We developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model to analyze how hypoxia effects on reproduction, growth, and mortality of Atlantic croaker in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico lead to population-level responses. The model follows the hourly growth, mortality, reproduction, and movement of individuals on a 300 × 800 spatial grid of 1-km² cells for 140 years. Chlorophyll-a concentration, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen (DO) were specified daily for each grid cell and repeated for each year of the simulation. A bioenergetics model was used to represent growth, mortality was assumed stage- and age-dependent, and the movement behavior of juveniles and adults was modeled based on temperature and avoidance of low DO. Hypoxia effects were imposed using exposure effect submodels that converted time-varying exposures to low DO to reduced hourly growth, increased hourly mortality, and reduced annual fecundity. Results showed that 100 years of either mild or intermediate hypoxia produced small reductions in population abundance, while repeated severe hypoxia caused a 19% reduction in long-term population abundance. Relatively few individuals were exposed to low DO each hour, but many individuals experienced some exposure. The response was dominated by a 5% average reduction in annual fecundity of individuals. Under conditions of random sequences of mild, intermediate, and severe hypoxia years occurring in proportion to their historical frequency, the model predicted a 10% decrease in the long-term population abundance of croaker. A companion paper substitutes hourly DO values from a three-dimensional water quality model for the idealized hypoxia and results in a more realistic population reduction of about 25%.     

Early growth fault activity: new evidence for extension in the upper Cambrian Owen Group,Proprietary Peak,western Tasmania,Australia

The coarse-grained, upper Cambrian Owen Group of western and northern Tasmania is a prominent feature of the Tasmanian landscape and regional map series. The group has previously been divided into four informal formations (Lower Owen Conglomerate, Middle Owen Sandstone, Middle Owen Conglomerate and Upper Owen Sandstone) that have been correlated across the state over tens to hundreds of kilometres. The deposition of these sediments is largely believed to have occurred during extensional tectonics, but some authors continue to argue a compressional tectonic regime. Detailed mapping and sedimentological work around Proprietary Peak on the Mount Jukes massif, 10 km south of Queenstown, Tasmania, has identified significant depositional variations controlled by early growth faulting and paleotopography. Discontinuity of stratigraphic units (L6–L13) across two growth faults on the north face of Proprietary Peak shows the strong effect on sediment deposition in the area. Paleotopography is also evident with most stratigraphic units (L8–L13 and U1) gradually onlapping basement during their deposition. Significant paleotopography has also been identified on East Jukes Peak, where lower Owen Group sedimentary units onlap basement volcanics, with no evidence for tectonically controlled deposition. Field evidence strongly supports the deposition of the Owen Group during extensional tectonics, after a period of prolonged erosion of the underlying Mount Read Volcanics. The distinct variation in vertical and lateral extent of stratigraphic units within the Owen Group in the Proprietary Peak area suggests that widespread lithostratigraphic correlation of older Owen Group sedimentary units across Tasmania may not be feasible.     

When hazard avoidance is not an option: lessons learned from monitoring the postdisaster Oso landslide,USA

On 22 March 2014, a massive, catastrophic landslide occurred near Oso, Washington, USA, sweeping more than 1 km across the adjacent valley flats and killing 43 people. For the following 5 weeks, hundreds of workers engaged in an exhaustive search, rescue, and recovery effort directly in the landslide runout path. These workers could not avoid the risks posed by additional large-scale slope collapses. In an effort to ensure worker safety, multiple agencies cooperated to swiftly deploy a monitoring and alerting system consisting of sensors, automated data processing and web-based display, along with defined communication protocols and clear calls to action for emergency management and search personnel. Guided by the principle that an accelerating landslide poses a greater threat than a steadily moving or stationary mass, the system was designed to detect ground motion and vibration using complementary monitoring techniques. Near real-time information was provided by continuous GPS, seismometers/geophones, and extensometers. This information was augmented by repeat-assessment techniques such as terrestrial and aerial laser scanning and time-lapse photography. Fortunately, no major additional landsliding occurred. However, we did detect small headscarp failures as well as slow movement of the remaining landslide mass with the monitoring system. This was an exceptional response situation and the lessons learned are applicable to other landslide disaster crises. They underscore the need for cogent landslide expertise and ready-to-deploy monitoring equipment, the value of using redundant monitoring techniques with distinct goals, the benefit of clearly defined communication protocols, and the importance of continued research into forecasting landslide behavior to allow timely warning.

     

Reducing wind power curtailment in China: comparing the roles of coal power flexibility and improved dispatch

Renewable energy curtailment is a critical issue in China, impeding the country’s transition to clean energy and its ability to meet its climate goals. This paper analyzes the impacts of more flexible coal-fired power generation and improved power dispatch towards reducing wind power curtailment. A unit commitment model for power dispatch is used to conduct the analysis, with different scenarios demonstrating the relative impacts of more flexible coal-fired generation and improved power dispatch. Overall, while we find both options are effective in reducing wind power curtailment, we find that improved power dispatch is more effective: (1) the effect of ramping down coal-fired generators to reduce wind power curtailment lessens as the minimum output of coal-fired generation is decreased; and (2) as a result, at higher wind capacity levels, wind curtailment is much more significantly reduced with improved power dispatch than with decreased minimum output of coal-fired generation.

Key policy insights

• China should emphasize both coal power flexibility and dispatch in its policies to minimize renewable power curtailment and promote clean energy transition.

• China should accelerate the process of implementing spot market and marginal cost-based economic dispatch, while making incremental improvements to the existing equal share dispatch in places not ready for spot market.

• A key step in improving of dispatch is incorporating renewable power forecasts into the unit commitment process and updating the daily unit commitment based on the latest forecast result.

• China should expand the coal power flexibility retrofit programme and promote the further development of the ancillary service market to encourage more flexibility from coal-fired generation.

     

High-frequency climate oscillations drive ice-off variability for Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers

Climatic Change - This study examines the climatic drivers of ice-off dates for lakes and rivers across the Northern Hemisphere. Most lakes and rivers have trended toward earlier ice-off dates over...     

Shock metamorphic history of >4 Ga Apollo 14 and 15 zircons

During impact events, zircons develop a wide range of shock metamorphic features that depend on the pressure and temperature conditions experienced by the zircon. These conditions vary with original distance from impact center and whether the zircon grains are incorporated into ejecta or remain within the target crust. We have employed the range of shock metamorphic features preserved in >4 Ga lunar zircons separated from Apollo 14 and 15 breccias and soils in order to gain insights into the impact shock histories of these areas of the Moon. We report microstructural characteristics of 31 zircons analyzed using electron beam methods including electron backscatter pattern (EBSP) and diffraction (EBSD). The major results of this survey are as follows. (1) The abundance of curviplanar features hosting secondary impact melt inclusions suggests that most of the zircons have experienced shock pressures between 3 and 20 GPa; (2) the scarcity of recrystallization or decomposition textures and the absence of the high‐pressure polymorph, reidite, suggests that few grains have been shocked to over 40 GPa or heated above 1000 °C in ejecta settings; (3) one grain exhibits narrow, arc‐shaped bands of twinned zircon, which map out as spherical shells, and represent a novel shock microstructure. Overall, most of the Apollo 14 and 15 zircons exhibit shock features similar to those of terrestrial zircon grains originating from continental crust below large (~200 km) impact craters (e.g., Vredefort impact basin), suggesting derivation from central uplifts or uplifted rims of large basins or craters on the Moon and not high‐temperature and ‐pressure ejecta deposits.     

The galaxy luminosity function in the LAMOST Complete Spectroscopic Survey of Pointing Area at the Southern Galactic Cap

We present optical luminosity functions(LFs) of galaxies in the~(0.1) g,~(0.1) r,~(0.1) i bands, calculated using data in~40 deg~2 sky area of the LAMOST Complete Spectroscopic Survey of Pointing Area(LaCoSSPAr) in the Southern Galactic Cap. Redshifts for galaxies brighter than r = 18.1 were obtained mainly with LAMOST. In each band, LFs derived using both parametric and non-parametric maximum likelihood methods agree well with each other. In the0.1 r band, our fitting parameters of the Schechter function are φ_*=(1.65 ± 0.36) × 10~(-2) h~3 Mpc~(-3), M_*=-20.69 ± 0.06 mag and α =-1.12 ± 0.08,which agree with previous studies. Separate LFs are also derived for emission line galaxies and absorption line galaxies. The LFs of absorption line galaxies show a dip at~(0.1) r ~18.5 and can be fitted well by a double-Gaussian function, suggesting a bimodality in passive galaxies.