Estimating impacts of warming temperatures on California's electricity system

Despite a clear need, little research has been carried out at the regional-level to quantify potential climate-related impacts to electricity production and delivery systems. This paper introduces a bottom-up study of climate change impacts on California's energy infrastructure, including high temperature effects on power plant capacity, transmission lines, substation capacity, and peak electricity demand. End-of-century impacts were projected using the A2 and B1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. The study quantifies the effect of high ambient temperatures on electricity generation, the capacity of substations and transmission lines, and the demand for peak power for a set of climate scenarios. Based on these scenarios, atmospheric warming and associated peak demand increases would necessitate up to 38% of additional peak generation capacity and up to 31% additional transmission capacity, assuming current infrastructure. These findings, although based on a limited number of scenarios, suggest that additional funding could be put to good use by supporting R&D into next generation cooling equipment technologies, diversifying the power generation mix without compromising the system's operational flexibility, and designing effective demand side management programs.     

Non-linear earthquake response of concrete gravity dams part 1: Modelling

A finite element procedure to model the non-linear earthquake response of concrete gravity dam systems is presented. A two-dimensional idealization is adopted for the dam and water in order to simplify the analysis and reduce the computational effort. The foundation of the dam is modelled as a rigid rectangular massless plate attached to a three-dimensional viscoelastic half-space. The non-linear behaviour is represented by smearing techniques and includes tensile cracking with subsequent opening, closing and sliding, as well as water cavitation in the reservoir. Special treatments are applied to suppress spurious oscillations in the water response associated with cavitation and to prevent cracks in the dam from spreading into wide zones. Experience from non-linear analyses is cited as it affects the design of the algorithm.     

Structure and subduction processes along the Oregon-Washington margin

Seismic reflection and refraction data off Washington and Oregon are used to determine the style of sediment deformation and to infer the physical properties of accreted sediments on the lower slope. Onshore-offshore seismic refraction data off Washington are used to determine the location of the trench, or where the plate bending starts.We find that off Washington the subduction zone is characterized by a trench whose physiographic expression is buried under several kilometers of sediments and is tens of kilometers landward of the lower slope, which is accreting seaward as the result of the offscraping of sediments.Seismic reflection data support previous observations that offscraping occurs along seaward and landward dipping thrust faults. Refraction data indicate that a sediment package thrust up along a seaward dipping fault (off Washington) was not measurably changed in velocity with respect to a Cascadia basin section. However a package uplifted by thrusting along a landward dipping fault (off Oregon) did have increased velocity. It is suggested that the increased velocities off Oregon could be the result of erosion and exposure of more deeply buried and compacted sediments, rather than the result of dewatering due to tectonic stress. Off Washington the sensitivity of velocity to porosity and resolution of the seismic method does not preclude dewatering due to tectonic stress, but it does limit the degree of dewatering.In the deeper parts of the lower slope section off Washington and Oregon velocities as high as 3 to 4 km/sec are found. Heat flow data indicate that the temperatures in this high velocity regime are greater than 100°C. It is hypothesized that lithification related to clay diagenesis may be partly responsible for the high velocities, rather than simply compaction. It also appears that the high velocity sediments are subducted while the unlithified low velocity sediments are offscraped.     

The unique,widely distributed,estuarine sea anemone,Nematostella vectensis Stephenson: A review,new facts,and questions

The small, burrowing, edwardsiid sea anemone Nematostella vectensis is widely distributed in estuaries and bays. Most typically it occurs in pools in marshes though it may occur subtidally as well. We have compiled records of its occurrence in North America from Nova Scotia to Georgia along the shores of the Atlantic Ocean, from Florida to Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico and from California to Washington on the Pacific coast. To date we have found no records of its presence in Alabama or Texas, though it is present in all other of the contiguous coastal states of the United States. The species also occurs in England. We have obtained living specimens from many locations and have crossed females from England, Maryland, Georgia, California, Oregon, and Washington with males from Nova Scotia, Maryland, Georgia, and Oregon. These 24 crosses all yielded viable first-generation anemones that in turn produced second-generation animals. We accept this as proof that this widely distributed anemone is a single species. We have obtained living N. vectensis from 11 areas. Of these, only samples from Maine, Maryland, Georgia, and Oregon contained both sexes. The sample from Nova Scotia was all male and our samples from England, New Hampshire, California, and Washington were all female. We hypothesize that the unisexual samples were from clones resulting from asexual reproduction in this species. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY066 00015     

Multiple Residence and Cyclical Migration: A Life Course Perspective*

As a result of restrictive time-space bounds in viewing migration, surprisingly little is known about the tempos and rhythms of geographical mobility in America. We discuss limitations of the conventional definition of migration and develop a life course framework of multiple residence and cyclical migration. Results of an Arizona-based case study reveal that multiple residence is common and more diverse than the annual influx of elderly snowbirds. Coming to grips with multiple residence and recurrent mobility in the United States represents a fundamental challenge in population and migration studies.     

High-resolution garnet chronometry and the rates of metamorphic processes

Garnets in an amphibolite-facies metasediment from Sulitjelma, North Norway yield precise and concordant SmNd, UPb and RbSr ages that relate directly to the pressure (P) and temperature (T) conditions of mineral growth. Differential mineral reaction between graphitic and non-graphitic layers within this sample preserves a record of theP-T and time (t) history experienced during Barrovian regional metamorphism. Garnets in graphitic layers grew during prograde metamorphism at462 ± 16°C and5.2 ± 0.5 kbar under conditions of lowaH₂O, and yield indistinguishable¹⁴⁷Sm¹⁴³Nd and²³⁸U²⁰⁶Pb ages of434.1 ± 1.2 Ma and433.9 ± 1.0 Ma, respectively. In contrast, garnet growth in adjacent graphite-free layers did not occur untilP-T conditions of540 ± 18°C and8.0 ± 1.0 kbar were attained, with continued growth in response to minor heating and decompression with final matrix equilibration at544 ± 16°C and7.0 ± 1.0 kbar. The inclusion-free garnet rims in this assemblage record indistinguishable¹⁴⁷Sm¹⁴³Nd and²³⁸U²⁰⁶Pb ages of424.6 ± 1.2 Ma and423.4± 1.7 Ma, respectively. These results provide precise estimates for average heating and burial rates during prograde metamorphism of 8.6_−4.4^+7.5°C Ma⁻¹ and 0.8_−0.5^+0.9 km Ma⁻¹, respectively. Rb and Sr exchange between coexisting silicates in the graphite-free assemblage continued for some 37 Ma after the “peak” of metamorphism, and require an average cooling rate of about 4.0°C Ma⁻¹ during uplift. These results illustrate a clear relationship between reaction history and the timing of mineral growth and provide definitive constraints on the rates of thermal and tectonic processes accompanying regional metamorphism.     

Response of jointed arches to earthquake excitation

An efficient method for accurately modelling the gradual opening and closing of joints in two-dimensional slabs and arches has been devised. The method is used in computing the earthquake response of an arch which is a representative horizontal cross-section of a concrete arch dam. Responses of the arch with and without joints are compared to assess the effect of joint opening. An extension to three-dimensional arch dams is proposed.     

210Pb dating of scottish lake sediments,afforestation and accelerated soil erosion

Changes in the rate of soil erosion in lake catchments can be identified from changes in the rate of sediment accumulation in lakes. Here we compare recently afforested sites with non-afforested sites in the Galloway area of Southwest Scotland. We show that lakes with non-afforested catchments have slow, constant sediment accumulation rates, whereas lakes with recently afforested catchments have changes in accumulation that parallel the known history of afforestation. For Loch Grannoch the sediment accumulation rate increases from 0.1 cm yr^?1 to over 2 cm yr^?2 during the disturbance period. Data from L. Skerrow, however, suggest that the rate might decline to predisturbance levels after approximately 10 years as the forest canopy closes and drainage channels stabilize.     

Buried trees,water table fluctuations,and 3000 years of changing climate in west-central Oklahoma

A sequence of radiocarbon-dated buried trees, buried soils, a carbonate zone, and a molluscan fauna from Carnegie Canyon indicate that between 3200 and 2600 yr B.P. the climate of west-central Oklahoma was drier than today. A high water table accompanied a period of moister climate 2000 to 1000 yr B.P. The water table dropped after 1000 yr B.P. due to a change toward dry conditions.