An integrated 1D–2D hydraulic modelling approach to assess the sensitivity of a coastal region to compound flooding hazard under climate change

Coastal regions are dynamic areas that often lie at the junction of different natural hazards. Extreme events such as storm surges and high precipitation are significant sources of concern for flood management. As climatic changes and sea-level rise put further pressure on these vulnerable systems, there is a need for a better understanding of the implications of compounding hazards. Recent computational advances in hydraulic modelling offer new opportunities to support decision-making and adaptation. Our research makes use of recently released features in the HEC-RAS version 5.0 software to develop an integrated 1D–2D hydrodynamic model. Using extreme value analysis with the Peaks-Over-Threshold method to define extreme scenarios, the model was applied to the eastern coast of the UK. The sensitivity of the protected wetland known as the Broads to a combination of fluvial, tidal and coastal sources of flooding was assessed, accounting for different rates of twenty-first century sea-level rise up to the year 2100. The 1D–2D approach led to a more detailed representation of inundation in coastal urban areas, while allowing for interactions with more fluvially dominated inland areas to be captured. While flooding was primarily driven by increased sea levels, combined events exacerbated flooded area by 5–40% and average depth by 10–32%, affecting different locations depending on the scenario. The results emphasise the importance of catchment-scale strategies that account for potentially interacting sources of flooding.

     

Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans

Changes in ocean heat content(OHC), salinity, and stratification provide critical indicators for changes in Earth’s energy and water cycles. These cycles have been profoundly altered due to the emission of greenhouse gasses and other anthropogenic substances by human activities, driving pervasive changes in Earth’s climate system. In 2022, the world’s oceans, as given by OHC, were again the hottest in the historical record and exceeded the previous 2021 record maximum.According to IAP/CAS data, ...     

Analyzing Accessibility Using Parcel Data: Is There Still an Access–Space Trade-Off in Long Beach,California?

This article analyzes the impact of changing housing and neighborhood characteristics on the accessibility of neighborhood businesses using Long Beach, California, as a case study. Although advocates of smart growth and New Urbanism encourage land use mixing, aggregate-level analysis can be too coarse to pick up on fine-grained aspects of urban streetscapes. This study uses assessor parcel records and a point-based business establishment data set to analyze city-wide patterns of accessibility from individual dwelling units to thirty-one types of neighborhood businesses, including grocery stores, service shops, drug stores, doctor's offices, and banks. Regression results compare parcel-level and neighborhood-level drivers of accessibility between 2006 and 2015 to gauge the aggregated effect of recent economic, demographic, and built environment changes on this aspect of urban spatial structure. Larger homes in older, multiunit buildings and higher income neighborhoods show substantial increases in accessibility to most establishment types, suggesting a trend toward both greater accessibility and larger dwelling units—despite the traditional trade-off between access and space. Although gradual increases in home and business density increased overall accessibility over this period, weaker neighborhood-level results indicate that this trend is less pronounced in high-poverty and non-white areas.     

Should Geography Educators Adopt Electronic Textbooks?

Significant changes in textbook publishing are at college instructors' door. Textbook representatives are directed to mesmerize potential clients with eye-catching displays and statements about digital literacy of the next generation of college students. Based on a one-year pilot study, in 2014–2015, of an electronic textbook, this commentary shares real experiences with the digital tools, contextualizes the shift in textbook publishing and research on student outcomes, and provides insight in navigating through the Brave New World of digital texts and adaptive learning tools.     

Men and women in Boston learn about terrorism differently: gendering the urban values–vulnerability nexus

This paper expands the values-vulnerability nexus for studying urban vulnerability to terrorism. Gender is among the most salient social structures affecting a person’s interpretation of risk, and urban geographers have demonstrated that gender also deeply affects the experience of urban life. However, the values that shape urban vulnerability to terrorism have been conceptualized more broadly, usually focusing on the underpinning economic organization of cities that terrorists exploit rather than on concepts such as gender. As a result, the role of gender in understanding societal responses to terrorism—specifically risk perception and preparedness—is underdeveloped, including in the 2008 US National Survey of Disaster and Preparedness, which sought to understand Americans’ responses to terrorism. This paper outlines a gender values–vulnerability nexus for studying terrorism. Using interview data from Boston, Massachusetts conducted before and after the 15 April 2013 Boston Marathon attacks, I demonstrate that gender deeply affected how Bostonians learned about and responded to terrorism. The gender values–vulnerability nexus explores the role of gendered political, social, economic, and geographical dimensions in urban vulnerability to terrorism. The role of gender has the potential to substantially increase vulnerability for urban populations, particularly given gender-similar social networks and urban contexts that continue to yield different experiences for men and women. The implications of these findings may signal challenges for urban emergency managers, public safety officials, and ordinary people in American cities.     

Fracturing and fluid‐flow during post‐rift subsidence in carbonates of the Jandaíra Formation,Potiguar Basin,NE Brazil

Pervasive fracture networks are common in many reservoir‐scale carbonate bodies even in the absence of large deformation and exert a major impact on their mechanical and flow behaviour. The Upper Cretaceous Jandaíra Formation is a few hundred meters thick succession of shallow water carbonates deposited during the early post‐rift stage of the Potiguar rift (NE Brazil). The Jandaíra Formation in the present onshore domain experienced <1.5 km thermal subsidence and, following Tertiary exhumation, forms outcrops over an area of >1000 km². The carbonates have a gentle, <5?, dip to the NE and are affected by few regional, low displacement faults or folds. Despite their simple tectonic history, carbonates display ubiquitous open fractures, sub‐vertical veins, and sub‐vertical as well as sub‐horizontal stylolites. Combining structural analysis, drone imaging, isotope studies and mathematical modelling, we reconstruct the fracturing history of the Jandaíra Formation during and following subsidence and analyse the impact fractures had on coeval fluid flow. We find that Jandaíra carbonates, fully cemented after early diagenesis, experienced negligible deformation during the first few hundreds of meters of subsidence but were pervasively fractured when they reached depths >400–500 m. Deformation was accommodated by a dense network of sub‐vertical mode I and hybrid fractures associated with sub‐vertical stylolites developed in a stress field characterised by a sub‐horizontal σ₁ and sub‐vertical σ₂. The development of a network of hybrid fractures, rarely reported in the literature, activated the circulation of waters charged in the mountainous region, flowing along the porous Açu sandstone underlying the Jandaíra carbonates and rising to the surface through the fractured carbonates. With persisting subsidence, carbonates reached depths of 800–900 m entering a depth interval characterised by a sub‐vertical σ₁. At this stage, sub‐horizontal stylolites developed liberating calcite which sealed the sub‐vertical open fractures transforming them in veins and preventing further flow. During Tertiary exhumation, several of the pre‐existing veins and stylolites opened and became longer, and new fractures were created typically with the same directions of the older features. The simplicity of our model suggests that most rocks in passive margin settings might have followed a similar evolution and thus display similar structures.     

Comparison of a Manual and an Automated Tracking Method for Tibetan Plateau Vortices

Tibetan Plateau vortices(TPVs) are mesoscale cyclones originating over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) during the extended summer season(April–September).Most TPVs stay on the TP,but a small number can move off the TP to the east.TPVs are known to be one of the main precipitation-bearing systems on the TP and moving-off TPVs have been associated with heavy precipitation and flooding downstream of the TP(e.g.,in Sichuan province or over the Yangtze River Valley).Identifying and tracking TPVs is difficult because of their comparatively small horizontal extent(400–800 km) and the limited availability of soundings over the TP,which in turn constitutes a challenge for short-term predictions of TPV-related impacts and for the climatological study of TPVs.In this study,(i) manual tracking(MT) results using radiosonde data from a network over and downstream of the TP are compared with(ii) results obtained by an automated tracking(AT) algorithm applied to ERA-Interim data.Ten MT-TPV cases are selected based on method(i) and matched to and compared with the corresponding AT-TPVs identified with method(ii).Conversely,ten AT-TPVs are selected and compared with the corresponding MT-TPVs.In general,the comparison shows good results in cases where the underlying data are in good agreement,but considerable differences are also seen in some cases and explained in terms of differences in the tracking methods,data availability/coverage and disagreement between sounding and ERA-Interim data.Recommendations are given for future efforts in TPV detection and tracking,including in an operational weather forecasting context.     

Changes in Climate Extremes Over the Australian Region and New Zealand During the Twentieth Century

Analyses of high quality data show that there have been some interesting recent changes in the incidence of some climate extremes in the Australian region and New Zealand.