Monitoring the freely dissolved concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and alkylphenols (AP) around a Norwegian oil platform by holistic passive sampling

In order to assess the environmental impact of aquatic discharges from the offshore oil industry, polar organic chemical integrative samplers (POCIS) and semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) were deployed around an oil platform and at reference locations in the North Sea. Exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and alkylated phenols (AP) was determined from passive sampler accumulations using an empirical uptake model, the dissipation of performance reference compounds and adjusted laboratory derived sampling rates. Exposure was relatively similar within 1–2 km of the discharge point, with levels dominated by short chained C1–C3 AP isomers (19–51 ng L⁻¹) and alkylated naphthalenes, phenanthrenes and dibenzothiophenes (NPD, 29–45 ng L⁻¹). Exposure stations showed significant differences to reference sites for NPD, but not always for more hydrophobic PAH. These concentrations are several orders of magnitude lower than those reported to give both acute and sub-lethal effects, although their long term consequences are unknown.     

A Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach for analyzing observational data from marine ecological studies

We introduce the Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach for analyzing observational data from marine ecological studies using a data set intended for inference on the effects of bottom-water hypoxia on macrobenthic communities in the northern Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Louisiana, USA. We illustrate (1) the process of developing a model, (2) the use of the hierarchical model results for statistical inference through innovative graphical presentation, and (3) a comparison to the conventional linear modeling approach (ANOVA). Our results indicate that the Bayesian hierarchical approach is better able to detect a “treatment” effect than classical ANOVA while avoiding several arbitrary assumptions necessary for linear models, and is also more easily interpreted when presented graphically. These results suggest that the hierarchical modeling approach is a better alternative than conventional linear models and should be considered for the analysis of observational field data from marine systems.     

High resolution global modeling of the atmospheric circulation

An informal review is presented of recent developments in numerical simulation of the global atmospheric circulation with very fine numerical resolution models. The focus is on results obtained recently with versions of the GFDL SKYHI model and the Atmospheric Model for the Earth Simulator (AFES) global atmospheric models. These models have been run with effective horizontal grid resolution of 10–40 km and fine vertical resolution. The results presented demonstrate the utility of such models for the study of a diverse range of phenomena. Specifically the models are shown to simulate the development of tropical cyclones with peak winds and minimum central pressures comparable to those of the most intense hurricanes actually observed. More fundamentally, the spectrum of energy content in the mesoscale in the flow can be reproduced by these models down to near the smallest explicitly-resolved horizontal scales. In the middle atmosphere it is shown that increasing horizontal resolution can lead to significantly improved overall simulation of the global-scale circulation. The application of the models to two specific problems requiring very fine resolution global will be discussed. The spatial and temporal variability of the vertical eddy flux of zonal momentum associated with gravity waves near the tropopause is evaluated in the very fine resolution AFES model. This is a subject of great importance for understanding and modelling the flow in the middle atmosphere. Then the simulation of the small scale variations of the semidiurnal surface pressure oscillation is analyzed, and the signature of significant topographic modulation of the semidiurnal atmospheric tide is identified.     

Climate change and soil erosion in a small alpine lake basin on the Loess Plateau,China

Multi‐proxy indices retrieved from sediments in Lake Chaonaqiu, an alpine lake on the western Loess Plateau (LP) of China, were used to reconstruct a precipitation history over the last ~300 years. The results correlate well with records from tree rings and historical documents in neighboring regions. We show that the lake oscillated between two states, i.e. wetter climatic conditions, which favored denser vegetation cover, and promoted weaker catchment soil erosion; and drier climatic conditions, which lead to less vegetation coverage, correlate with stronger surface soil erosion. Several intensive soil erosion events were identified in the sediment cores, and most of these occurred during decadal/multi‐decadal dry periods, and correlate well with flood events documented in historical literature. The results of this study show that soil erosion by flood events is particularly intense during dry periods, and further highlights the role of vegetation cover in the conservation of water and soil in small lake basins on the Chinese LP. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic fragility assessment of nonstructural components in unreinforced clay brick masonry buildings

The results of an investigation of the probability of earthquake damage to nonstructural unreinforced masonry (URM) components are presented. The components include parapets, chimneys, and out-of-plane loaded facades typical of low-rise pre-1940 construction in Australia and New Zealand. The study is based on a street survey of component geometry, in situ data on material strength, and simplified mechanical models. Uncertainties in capacity and demand were quantified based on, respectively, stochastic and deterministic approaches. The damage probabilities were compared with relevant guidelines and empirical damage data from three earthquakes. The study established a link between the qualitative damage states reported in existing guidelines and the quantitative URM component damage states. While some median damage state thresholds correlated well with the data from the guidelines, a larger dispersion value was found in the current study due to the large variations in component properties. Comparisons with empirical data suggest that the developed fragility data provide a realistic estimate of nonstructural component damage that occurred in similar buildings, with a reasonable level of conservatism. The outcome is useful in rapid assessment of the seismic risks due to nonstructural component collapse in URM precincts.     

The 14th international workshop on wave hindcasting and forecasting and the 5th coastal hazards symposium

Following the 14th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting and 5th Coastal Hazards Symposium in November 2014 in Key West, Florida, a topical collection has appeared in recent issues of Ocean Dynamics. Here, we give a brief overview of the 16 papers published in this topical collection as well as an overview of the widening scope of the conference in recent years. A general trend in the field has been towards closer integration between the wave and ocean modelling communities. This is also seen in this topical collection, with several papers exploring the interaction between surface waves and mixed layer dynamics and sea ice.     

Natural Stimuli Calibration with Fining Direction Regularization in an Integrated Hydrologic Model

The interaction between surface water and groundwater during flood events is a complex process that has traditionally been described using simplified analytical solutions, or abstracted numerical models. To make the problem tractable, it is common to idealize the flood event, simplify river channel geometry, and ignore bank soil heterogeneity, often resulting in a model that only loosely represents the site, thus limiting its applicability to any specific river cross-section. In this study, we calibrate a site-specific fully-integrated surface and subsurface HydroGeoSphere model using flood events for a cross-section along the South River near Waynesboro, VA. The calibration approach presented in this study demonstrates the incorporation of fining direction regularization with a highly parameterized inversion driven by natural stimuli, to develop several realistic realizations of hydraulic conductivity fields that reflect the depositional history of the system. Specifically, we calibrate a model with 365 unique material zones to multiple flood events recorded in a dense well network while incorporating possible fining sequences consistent with the depositional history of the riverbank. Over 25,000 individual simulations were completed using calibration software and a cloud platform specifically designed for highly parallelized computing environments. The results of this study demonstrate the use of fining direction regularization during model calibration to generate multiple calibrated model realizations that account for the depositional environment of the system.     

An analysis of past and present megadrought impacts on a modern water resource system

Extended drought is a concern for water resource sustainability in the Colorado River Basin of the western USA. Recent instrumental data are a limited rendering of drought risk, while paleoclimate data provide evidence of megadrought that could reoccur; but their impact analyses have not been reported to date. A 645-year tree-ring reconstruction of central Arizona, USA, streamflows reveals several threatening periods including a severe 16th-century multi-decade event. This study translated that record to net basin water supply with comparison to instrumental records to drive an operations model of a key resource system serving metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona. Cumulative system impacts and demand sensitivities find no system depletion to inoperable conditions for any drought of the past several centuries. The megadrought presently afflicting the region has become more severe than any in the paleoclimate record and should be considered the new drought of record for adaptation planning.     

One‐Pot Synthesis of Xanthate‐Functionalized Cellulose for the Detection of Micromolar Copper(II) and Nickel(II) Ions

A one‐pot synthesis and application of cellulose‐based sensors to efficiently detect various toxic metal ions in aqueous solutions in micromolar quantities is reported. Cellulose microfibers have been functionalized with carbon disulfide in alkaline solution to form cellulose xanthate. The material detects several toxic metal ions such as copper, nickel, or cobalt ions through color change detectable by the naked eye. The optical sensor can be used as an ideal flash test for assessing the quality of drinking water.     

Assessing potential environmental influences on killer whale (Orcinus orca) distribution patterns in the Bremer Canyon,south-west Australia

ABSTRACT

Submarine canyons play an important role in the regional distribution, abundance and dispersal of marine biota and are increasingly being recognised as geomorphic features of high conservation significance along Australia’s continental margin. Certain canyons have been described as foraging ‘hotspots’ attributable to the high abundance of apex cetacean species aggregating in these areas. Anecdotal evidence of large seasonal aggregations of killer whales in the Bremer Canyon, south-west Australia, has attracted significant research attention in the last decade. To identify important environmental drivers influencing aggregation patterns, a predictive spatial habitat model using the Maxent model was developed based on presence-only whale sighting data. In addition, remotely sensed sea surface temperature and chlorophyll-a concentrations were assessed to investigate the spatio-temporal variation in sea surface conditions. Habitat preference was predicted in areas between canyon heads, with the most influential predictor variables being depth and distance from the continental shelf break. Analysis of remote-sensing data highlighted low localised variability in surface waters and illustrated the seasonal trends of the Leeuwin Current. This study demonstrates the influence of bathymetry and submarine geomorphology on enhanced cetacean abundance and highlights the need for recognition of this potential foraging area in marine reserve planning.