Application of universal kriging for estimation of earthquake ground motion: Statistical significance of results

Universal kriging is compared with ordinary kriging for estimation of earthquake ground motion. Ordinary kriging is based on a stationary random function model; universal kriging is based on a nonstationary random function model representing first-order drift. Accuracy of universal kriging is compared with that for ordinary kriging; cross-validation is used as the basis for comparison. Hypothesis testing on these results shows that accuracy obtained using universal kriging is not significantly different from accuracy obtained using ordinary kriging. Tests based on normal distribution assumptions are applied to errors measured in the cross-validation procedure;t andF tests reveal no evidence to suggest universal and ordinary kriging are different for estimation of earthquake ground motion. Nonparametric hypothesis tests applied to these errors and jackknife statistics yield the same conclusion: universal and ordinary kriging are not significantly different for this application as determined by a cross-validation procedure. These results are based on application to four independent data sets (four different seismic events).     

Petrology of seamounts northwest of Samoa and their relation to Samoan volcanism

Petrological and geochemical data on dredged samples from five submarine volcanos northwest of Samoa indicate that three of these volcanos belong to the Samoan volcanic province (Field, Lalla Rookh, and Combe banks), and two belong to separate magmatic zones (Wallis Islands and Alexa Bank). The Samoan volcanic province increases in age westward and both shield-building tholeiitic and alkalic lavas (Combe Bank) and strongly undersaturated (post-erosional?) melilitites or nephelinites and ankaramites (Field and Lalla Rookh banks) are present. The age progression and petrochemical character of these rocks is consistent with a fixed hotspot beneath eastern Samoa. Slightly askew from this trend is Alexa Bank where dredged lavas are ocean-island tholeiites; however, its radiometric age and compositional characteristics apparently preclude its association with Samoa by a fixed-hotspot model. Dredged volcanic rocks from near the Wallis Islands are geochemically, petrologically, and temporally different from Samoan volcanism, but are similar in these respects to Quaternary volcanism in Rotuma and Fiji and may be related to plate reorganization accompanying opening of the North Fiji Basin.     

Sorted stripes on sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Island

Observations of sorted stripes at nine different localities on sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Island are presented. The study sites range from 25-600 m above sea level and are of varying aspect. It is found that there is a strong relationship between stripe orientation and the wind direction, to the extent that at one locality stripes were orientated across a slope. Stripe width was seen to increase with altitude and, in addition, the coarse stripe was dominant at lower elevations and the fine stripe at higher elevations. At one site a secondary set of stripes was observed to occur within the fine stripe of a primary larger set. On a trachyte plug there was evidence of lateral squeezing in the formation of the stripes. A number of minor observations pertaining to the possible mechanism of stripe formation are given.     

Bond-valence methods for pKa prediction. II. Bond-valence, electrostatic, molecular geometry, and solvation effects

In a previous contribution, we outlined a method for predicting (hydr)oxy-acid and oxide surface acidity constants based on three main factors: bond valence, Me-O bond ionicity, and molecular shape. Here, electrostatics calculations and ab initio molecular dynamics simulations are used to qualitatively show that Me-O bond ionicity controls the extent to which the electrostatic work of proton removal departs from ideality, bond valence controls the extent of solvation of individual functional groups, and bond valence and molecular shape control local dielectric response. These results are consistent with our model of acidity, but completely at odds with other methods of predicting acidity constants for use in multisite complexation models. In particular, our ab initio molecular dynamics simulations of solvated monomers clearly indicate that hydrogen bonding between (hydr)oxo-groups and water molecules adjusts to obey the valence sum rule, rather than maintaining a fixed valence based on the coordination of the oxygen atom as predicted by the standard MUSIC model. However, we also show how our method for pK_a prediction could be improved using ab initio molecular dynamics simulations of solvated surfaces.     

Merging energy‐based design criteria and reliability‐based methods: exploring a new concept

This paper examines the potential development of a probabilistic design methodology, considering hysteretic energy demand, within the framework of performance‐based seismic design of buildings. This article does not propose specific energy‐based criteria for design guidelines, but explores how such criteria can be treated from a probabilistic design perspective. Uniform hazard spectra for normalized hysteretic energy are constructed to characterize seismic demand at a specific site. These spectra, in combination with an equivalent systems methodology, are used to estimate hysteretic energy demand on real building structures. A design checking equation for a (hypothetical) probabilistic energy‐based performance criterion is developed by accounting for the randomness of the earthquake phenomenon, the uncertainties associated with the equivalent system analysis technique, and with the site soil factor. The developed design checking equation itself is deterministic, and requires no probabilistic analysis for use. The application of the proposed equation is demonstrated by applying it to a trial design of a three‐storey steel moment frame. The design checking equation represents a first step toward the development of a performance‐based seismic design procedure based on energy criterion, and additional works needed to fully implement this are discussed in brief at the end of the paper. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

‘Public intellectuals’, geography, its representations and its publics

Recent years have seen academic geographers engaged in a series of debates over the current state of the discipline, its ‘relevance’ to others in the social sciences, to policy-makers, and to those studying geography at school age. This short critical review builds upon an issue raised in this journal [Thrift, N., 2002. The future of geography. Geoforum 33, 291–298], namely the role of geographers as public intellectuals. After reviewing the different ways in which the notion of public intellectuals has been understood, the paper turns to geography’s representations and to its publics. The paper concludes by arguing for an appreciation of the full range of ways in which geographers call forth publics through a range of representational strategies. It suggests that regardless of how geographers perform publicly and intellectually, two things are perhaps worth remembering: it is in the interest of geographers to name what they do as geography and to name themselves as geographers.     

Spectral properties, iron oxide content and provenance of Namib dune sands

This paper applies multispectral remote sensing techniques to map the Fe-oxide content over the entire Namib sand sea. Spectrometric analysis is applied to field samples to identify the reflectance properties of the dune sands which enable remotely sensed Fe-oxide mapping. The results indicate that the pattern of dune colour in the Namib sand sea arises from the mixing of at least two distinct sources of sand; a red component of high Fe-oxide content (present as a coating on the sand grains) which derives from the inland regions, particularly from major embayments into the Southern African escarpment; and a yellow coastal component of low Fe-oxide content which is brought into the area by northward-moving aeolian transport processes. These major provenances are separated by a mixing zone between 20 km and 90 km from the coast throughout the entire length of the sand sea. Previous workers have also recognised a third, fluvial, provenance, but the methodology applied here is not able to map this source as a distinct spectral component.     

Water partitioning between mantle minerals from peridotite xenoliths

The speciation and amount of water dissolved in nominally anhydrous silicates comprising eight different mantle xenoliths has been quantified using synchrotron micro-FTIR spectroscopy. Samples studied are from six geographic localities and represent a cross-section of the major upper mantle lithologies from a variety of tectonic settings. Clinopyroxene contains between 342 and 413 ppm H₂O. Orthopyroxene, olivine and garnet contain 169–201, 3–54 and 0 to <3 ppm H₂O, respectively. Pyroxenes water contents and the distribution of water between ortho- and clinopyroxene is identical regardless of sample mineralogy (D _water^cpx/opx = 2.1 ± 0.1). The total water contents of each xenolith are remarkably similar (113 ± 14 ppm H₂O). High-resolution spectroscopic traverses show that the concentration and speciation of hydrous defects dissolved in each phase are spatially homogeneous within individual crystals and identical in different crystals interspersed throughout the xenolith. These results suggest that the amount of water dissolved in the silicate phases is in partial equilibrium with the transporting melt. Other features indicate that xenoliths have also preserved OH signatures of equilibrium with the mantle source region: Hydroxyl stretching modes in clinopyroxene show that garnet lherzolites re-equilibrated under more reducing conditions than spinel lherzolites. The distribution of water between pyroxenes and olivine differs according to xenolith mineralogy. The distribution of water between clinopyroxene and olivine from garnet peridotites (D _water^cpx/oliv(gnt) = 22.2 ± 24.1) is a factor of four greater than mineral pairs from spinel-bearing xenoliths (D _water^cpx/oliv(sp) = 88.1 ± 47.8). Such an increase in olivine water contents at the spinel to garnet transition is likely a global phenomenon and this discontinuity could lead to a reduction of the upper mantle viscosity by 0.2–0.7 log units and a reduction of its electrical resistivity by a factor of 0.5–0.8 log units.     

The role of grain dissolution and diagenetic mineral precipitation in the cycling of metals and phosphorus: A study of a contaminated urban freshwater sediment

This paper describes the detrital mineralogy, early diagenetic reactions and authigenic mineral precipitates for freshwater contaminated sediments deposited in an urban water body (the Salford Quays of the Manchester Ship Canal, Greater Manchester, UK). These sediments contain a mix of natural and anthropogenic detrital grains. Detrital grains are dominated by quartz and clay grains, whilst anthropogenic grains are dominated by metal-rich glass grains, concentrated at a depth of 12–17 cm in the sediment as a result of historical inputs. Sediment porewaters contain significant concentrations of Fe, Mn, Zn and phosphate. Bacterial Fe(III) and Mn(IV) reduction are hypothesised to supply Fe²⁺ and Mn²⁺ to porewaters, with phosphate released from Fe oxide reduction or organic matter oxidation. Petrographic observations indicate that the metal-rich glass grains are undergoing chemical dissolution during early diagenesis, supplying Fe and Zn to porewaters.     

Magnetic-field accumulation in supergranules

Some theoretical models illustrating the growth of magnetic fields around the boundaries of supergranulation cells are given. The evolution of a magnetic field in a prescribed velocity field is calculated for the idealized case of hexagonal cells. The calculations are carried out both for a perfect conductor and a fluid of finite conductivity. The theory is developed in such a way as to be virtually free of specific assumptions about the depth dependence of the supergranulation flow. The results demonstrate the tendency of the field to accumulate at those boundary points where the flow is most strongly converging.