The context of policy design for existing community-based fisheries management systems in the Pacific Islands

Community-based fisheries management is being widely promoted as an alternative to centralized systems based on the familiar bioeconomic models that have manifestly failed to prevent a near catastrophic overexploitation of fish stocks worldwide. The Pacific Island Region probably contains the world’s greatest concentration of still-functioning traditional community-based systems for managing coastal-marine fisheries and other resources.It has been frequently asserted that many such traditional systems provide both a firm foundation for future coastal fisheries management in the Pacific Islands Region, as well as a conceptual framework for managing fisheries elsewhere. Although now seemingly self-evident to fisheries development “experts”, such assertions remain largely unverified.Whereas it is a relatively straightforward task to distil basic “design principles” from a sample of systems, it is far more complex to analyze the multi-sectoral national environment in which they function, especially when their history is taken into account. In other words, it is far less widely appreciated that many contemporary community-based fisheries management systems are the end products of a long process of change and adaptation to external pressures and constraints.In this article I address some of the broader contextual issues that should be appreciated in policymaking with respect to a potential modern role for traditional management systems in general, and in the analysis of a future role for any given system. First, the principal external factors that have caused change in systems are described and exemplified. The recognition of the potential role of existing community-based fisheries systems, and attempts to act on it, is summarized for some Pacific Island nations, with a focus on the complex problem of reconciling customary and statutory legal systems. In the final section I examine three principal national policy alternatives regarding the potential role of existing local fisheries management systems, together with three main criteria for determining whether or not a system can be adapted to fulfill modern requirements.     

Early Miocene sequence development across the New Jersey margin

Sequence stratigraphy provides an understanding of the interplay between eustasy, sediment supply and accommodation in the sedimentary construction of passive margins. We used this approach to follow the early to middle Miocene growth of the New Jersey margin and analyse the connection between relative changes of sea level and variable sediment supply. Eleven candidate sequence boundaries were traced in high-resolution multi-channel seismic profiles across the inner margin and matched to geophysical log signatures and lithologic changes in ODP Leg 150X onshore coreholes. Chronologies at these drill sites were then used to assign ages to the intervening seismic sequences. We conclude that the regional and global correlation of early Miocene sequences suggests a dominant role of global sea-level change but margin progradation was controlled by localized sediment contribution and that local conditions played a large role in sequence formation and preservation. Lowstand deposits were regionally restricted and their locations point to both single and multiple sediment sources. The distribution of highstand deposits, by contrast, documents redistribution by along shelf currents. We find no evidence that sea level fell below the elevation of the clinoform rollover, and the existence of extensive lowstand deposits seaward of this inflection point indicates efficient cross-shelf sediment transport mechanisms despite the apparent lack of well-developed fluvial drainage.     

Flume tank studies to elucidate the fate and behavior of diluted bitumen spilled at sea

An economical alternative to conventional crudes, Canadian bitumen, harvested as a semi-liquid, is diluted with condensate to make it viable to transport by pipeline to coastal areas where it would be shipped by tankers to global markets. Not much is known about the fate of diluted bitumen (dilbit) when spilled at sea. For this purpose, we conducted dilbit (Access Western Blend; AWB and Cold Lake Blend; CLB) weathering studies for 13 days in a flume tank containing seawater. After six days of weathering, droplets detached from the AWB slick and were dense enough to sink in seawater. The density of CLB also increased, but at a slower rate compared to AWB, which was attributed to the high concentration of alkylated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in it, which are more resistant to weathering. An empirical, Monod-type model was introduced and was found to closely simulate the increase in oil density with time. Such a model could be used within oil spill models.     

A study of anthropogenic and climatic disturbance of the New River Estuary using a Bayesian belief network

The present paper utilizes a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) approach to intuitively present and quantify our current understanding of the complex physical, chemical, and biological processes that lead to eutrophication in an estuarine ecosystem (New River Estuary, North Carolina, USA). The model is further used to explore the effects of plausible future climatic and nutrient pollution management scenarios on water quality indicators. The BBN, through visualizing the structure of the network, facilitates knowledge communication with managers/stakeholders who might not be experts in the underlying scientific disciplines. Moreover, the developed structure of the BBN is transferable to other comparable estuaries. The BBN nodes are discretized exploring a new approach called moment matching method. The conditional probability tables of the variables are driven by a large dataset (four years). Our results show interaction among various predictors and their impact on water quality indicators. The synergistic effects caution future management actions.     

Evaluation of past,present and future tools for radar-based flash-flood prediction in the USA

Abstract

The societal impacts of flash floods are more significant than any other weather-related hazard. They are often manifested in the form of damage to infrastructure, flooding of roadways and bridges, creating deadly hazards to motorists and inundation of crops and pasture. Some of these hazards can be anticipated and thus mitigated given effective warning systems. This study describes the tools proposed over recent decades in the USA to predict flash flooding and evaluates them using a common observational data set. Design recommendations for flash-flood forecasting systems are provided, taking into account today's availability of high-resolution rainfall data at scales commensurate with flash flooding, their archives, spatial data sets to describe physiographic properties, and ever-increasing computational resources.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Gourley, J.J., Flamig, Z.L., Hong, Y., and Howard, K.W., 2014. Evaluation of past, present and future tools for radar-based flash-flood prediction in the USA. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1377–1389. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.919391     

Compositional gradients surrounding spherulites in obsidian and their relationship to spherulite growth and lava cooling

Spherical masses of crystal fibers (spherulites) crystalize from rhyolitic melt/glass mainly in response to significant undercooling while lava cools. Spherulite growth should induce compositional gradients in the surrounding glass from expulsion of incompatible constituents and diffusion of those constituents away from the spherulite. Finite-difference numerical modeling of one-dimensional diffusion, in which diffusivities are allowed to vary with temperature, is used to investigate how compositional gradients reflect spherulite growth and lava cooling. Overall, three forms of gradients are identified. Elements that diffuse quickly are expelled from the spherulite but then migrate away too quickly to become enriched at the boundary of the spherulite. Elements that diffuse slowly are trapped within the growing spherulite. Between those endmembers are elements that are not trapped, yet diffuse slow enough that they become enriched at the contact. Their slow diffusion away then elevates their concentrations in the surrounding glass. How enriched those elements are at the spherulite-matrix interface and how far their enrichments extend outwards into the glass reflect how spherulites grow and thermal conditions during growth. Concentrations of H₂O, Rb, F, Li, Cl, Na, K, Sr, Cs, Ba, and Be were measured in and around spherulites in obsidian from a 4.7?±?1?km³ rhyolite lava dome erupted from Tequila volcano, Mexico. Measurable concentration gradients are found for H₂O, Rb, and F. Attributes of those gradients and the behaviors of the other elements are in accord with their experimentally constrained diffusivities. Spherulites appear to have grown following radial, rather than volumetric, growth. The observed gradients (and lack of others) are more consistent with growth mainly below the glass transition, which would necessitate the dome cooling at ca. 10^?5 to 10^?7?°C?s^?1. Such slow cooling is consistent with the relatively large volume of the dome.     

Approaches to the simulation of unconfined flow and perched groundwater flow in MODFLOW

Various approaches have been proposed to manage the nonlinearities associated with the unconfined flow equation and to simulate perched groundwater conditions using the MODFLOW family of codes. The approaches comprise a variety of numerical techniques to prevent dry cells from becoming inactive and to achieve a stable solution focused on formulations of the unconfined, partially-saturated, groundwater flow equation. Keeping dry cells active avoids a discontinuous head solution which in turn improves the effectiveness of parameter estimation software that relies on continuous derivatives. Most approaches implement an upstream weighting of intercell conductance and Newton-Raphson linearization to obtain robust convergence. In this study, several published approaches were implemented in a stepwise manner into MODFLOW for comparative analysis. First, a comparative analysis of the methods is presented using synthetic examples that create convergence issues or difficulty in handling perched conditions with the more common dry-cell simulation capabilities of MODFLOW. Next, a field-scale three-dimensional simulation is presented to examine the stability and performance of the discussed approaches in larger, practical, simulation settings.     

A philosophical basis for hydrological uncertainty

ABSTRACT

Uncertainty is an epistemological concept in the sense that any meaningful understanding of uncertainty requires a theory of knowledge. Therefore, uncertainty resulting from scientific endeavors can only be properly understood in the context of a well-defined philosophy of science. Our main message here is that much of the discussion about uncertainty in hydrology has lacked grounding in these foundational concepts, and has resulted in a controversy that is largely the product of logical errors rather than true (axiomatic) disagreement. As an example, we explore the current debate about the appropriate role of probability theory for hydrological uncertainty quantification. Our main messages are: (1) apparent (and/or claimed) limitations of probability theory are not actually consequences of that theory, but rather of deeper underlying epistemological (and ontological) issues; (2) questions about the appropriateness of probability theory are only meaningful if posed as questions about our preferred philosophy of science; and (3) questions about uncertainty may often be better posed as questions about available information and information use efficiency. Our purpose here is to discuss how hydrologists might ask more meaningful questions about uncertainty.     

Simulating bubble number density of rhyolitic pumices from Plinian eruptions: constraints from fast decompression experiments

Decompression experiments of a crystal-free rhyolitic liquid with ≈ 6.6 wt. % H₂O were carried out at a pressure range from 250 MPa to 30–75 MPa in order to characterize effects of magma ascent rate and temperature on bubble nucleation kinetics, especially on the bubble number density (BND, the number of bubbles produced per unit volume of liquid). A first series of experiments at 800°C and fast decompression rates (10–90 MPa/s) produced huge BNDs (≈ 2 × 10¹⁴ m⁻³ at 10 MPa/s ; ≈ 2 × 10¹⁵ m⁻³ at 90 MPa/s), comparable to those in natural silicic pumices from Plinian eruptions (10¹⁵–10¹⁶ m⁻³). A second series of experiments at 700°C and 1 MPa/s produced BNDs (≈ 9×10¹² m⁻³) close to those observed at 800°C and 1 MPa/s (≈ 6 × 10¹² m⁻³), showing that temperature has an insignificant effect on BNDs at a given decompression rate. Our study strengthens the theory that the BNDs are good markers of the decompression rate of magmas in volcanic conduits, irrespective of temperature. Huge number densities of small bubbles in natural silicic pumices from Plinian eruptions imply that a major nucleation event occurs just below the fragmentation level, at which the decompression rate of ascending magmas is a maximum (≥ 1 MPa/s).