North American Trends in Extreme Precipitation

An analysis of extreme precipitation events indicates that there has been a sizable increase in their frequency since the 1920s/1930s in the U.S. There has been no discernible trend in the frequency of the most extreme events in Canada, but the frequency of less extreme events has increased in some parts of Canada, notably in the Arctic. In the U.S., frequencies in the late 1800s/early 1900s were about as high as in the 1980s/1990s. This suggests that natural variability of the climate system could be the cause of the recent increase, although anthropogenic forcing due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations cannot be discounted as another cause. It is likely that anthropogenic forcing will eventually cause global increases in extreme precipitation, primarily because of probable increases in atmospheric water vapor content and destabilization of the atmosphere. However, the location, timing, and magnitude of local and regional changes remain unknown because of uncertainties about future changes in the frequency/intensity of meteorological systems that cause extreme precipitation.     

Response of juvenile fish assemblages in tidal salt marsh creeks treated forPhragmites removal

We examined fish assemblages in tidal salt marsh creeks in Delaware Bay in order to evaluate their response to treatment forPhragmites removal following initial treatment in 1996. In Alloway Crrek, a tributary to Delaware Bay, reference creeks draining marsh of untreatedPhragmites or naturally occurringSpartina were compared with creeks in marshes treated forPhragmites removal. These reference and treated creeks occur in close proximity and share many characteristics including salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity, although creeks inPhragmites sites differed slightly in bathymetry. We analyzed a time series of otter trawl collections (22 monthly sample periods from 1999 to 2001) for differences in juvenile fish assemblage among creeks with different vegetation history. Periodically, young-of-the-year (YOY) and age 1+ white perch (Morone americana), YOY spot (Leiostomus xanthurus), YOY Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus), and other species were relatively more abundant atPhragmites sites, but other dominant species were preiodically abundant at all sites. Among-treatment differences based on principal response curves analysis accounted for about 19% of the total species variation, but differences varied widely among sample periods and there is little or no indication of a trend over the 3-yr period. Larger collections were often associated with subtidal structure, which was more common atPhragmites sites and potentially represents a sampling artifact. Assemblages of creeks with differing vegetation history differ weakly but recognizably, suggesting slow or little response to treatment, at least based on otter trawl collections in subtidal marsh creeks.

     

Population Health, Environment and Economic Development

There are fundamental links between population health, environment and economic development. The ultimate goal of economic development is to improve the quality of human life and increase people's longevity. This goal cannot be achieved without a clean and prosperous Earth. There has been increasing evidence showing that the expansion of economic activities can have significant impacts on the environment and can cause large-scale and sometimes irreversible environmental changes. It is beyond reasonable doubt that these changes will have serious public health consequences. How to tackle these issues is a unprecedented challenge to scientists and policy-makers. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Short-term biogeochemical influence of a diatom bloom on the nutrient and trace metal concentrations in South San Francisco Bay microcosm experiments

Two laboratory microcosm experiments were conducted to mimic an annual spring diatom bloom in South San Francisco Bay by isolating the phytoplankton community from the benthic grazing pressure to induce a phytoplankton bloom. The purpose of these experiments was to isolate the impact of a spring diatom bloom on the nutrient and trace metal geochemical cycling. Microcosms were created in 2.5 L incubation bottles and subjected to one of 4 treatments (control, copper [Cu] addition, manganese [Mn] addition, and both Cu and Mn addition) to investigate the toxicity of Cu on the resident plankton and the potential antagonistic effects of Mn on reducing Cu toxicity. Dissolved macronutrient (nitrate + nitrite, phosphate, and silicate), and dissolved and particulate trace metal (Cu, Ni, Mn) concentrations were monitored in the grow-out incubations on a daily basis. Chlorophylla concentrations were also monitored over the course of the experiment and used to calculate diatom-specific growth rates. In the experiments containing ambient South San Francisco Bay surface waters, average specific growth rates were on the order of 1.1 d^?1. The induced diatom blooms resulted in significant removal of macronutrients from the microcosms over the course of the experiments. Our research supports previous suggestions that dissolved Ni and Cu concentrations in South San Francisco Bay have a very low biological availability as a result of organic chelation. Ni(EDTA)^2? has been found to be the dominant dissolved Ni species by other researchers and Cu speciation analyses from this study and others indicate that > 99% of the dissolved Cu in South San Francisco Bay is strongly chelated as CuL₁. The free cupric ion concentration was on the order of 10^?12 M. Marked removal of dissolved Mn was observed in the control treatments, well exceeding expected dissolved Mn removal by diatom uptake. Additions of 375 nM Cu resulted in the complete titration of the chelating ligand (L₁) concentrations. The elevated [Cu²⁺] (≈10^?8MM) appeared to have a toxic effect on the diatom community observed in the significant decreases in their specific growth rates (μ=0.4 d^?1). The suppression of dissolved Mn removal from solution was also observed in treatments spiked with high levels of dissolved Cu, providing support that Mn precipitation was due to biologically mediated oxidation not phytoplankton assimilation. The observed geochemical behavior in the concurrent Cu and Mn addition treatments provide evidence in support of Mn alleviation of Cu toxicity. The biological role in the ambient short-term biogeochemical cycling of Cu and Ni in South San Francisco Bay appears to be minimal due to the inert character of the organic ligand-metal complexes. A significant portion of the annual macronutrient and Mn cycling occurs as a result of spring diatom blooms in South San Francisco Bay.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE HYDROLOGIC RESOURCES OF EUROPE: A SIMPLIFIED CONTINENTAL SCALE ANALYSIS

U.S. Country Studies supported analyses of climate change impacts on water resources have been completed or are underway in the following Central and Eastern European nations: Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Romania, Estonia, Russian Federation, and the Ukraine. Climate change impacts on the hydrologic resources of these countries is being performed at the river basin scale using monthly water balance models using GCM-based climate scenarios. The authors have performed a regional analysis of climate change impacts on the Hydrologic Resources of Europe using the Turc Annual Model. The regional analysis was done with GIS methodolgies using regional climate databases. The regional results were compared to the U.S. Country Studies hydrologic assessmnent results to validiate the use of this simplified methodolgy for making regional climate change assessment. Results from three countries showed acceptable performace of the annual approach . Using GCM-based climate scenarios regional analysis of potential climate change impacts on the hydrologic resources of Europe was conducted and national and regional results are presented.     

Midge- and diatom-based palaeosalinity reconstructions for Mahoney Lake, Okanagan Valley, British Columbia, Canada

Salinity fluctuations in lakes of semi-arid regions have long been recognised as indicators of palaeoclimatic change, and have provided a valuable line of evidence in palaeo-climatic reconstruction. In the present study, fossil remains of diatoms and midges were used to reconstruct salinity changes at Mahoney Lake from the early postglacial, through the early, mid and late Holocene. A transition from midges typical of a freshwater community (Protanypus, Sergentia, Heterotrissocladius, Cladopelma, Dicrotendipes) during the early postglacial, to those indicative of saline environments (Cricotopus/Orthocladius, Tanypus) occurred in the early Holocene. The midge-inferred salinity values reflected the shift from freshwater (0.031 g/L) immediately after deglaciation, to saline water (2.4 to 55.2 g/L) in subsequent periods. A less saline period was found to have occurred after 1000 yr BP, suggesting a cooler or wetter period. The diatom record indicates similar trends, with freshwater taxa (e.g.,Cyclotella bodanica var. aff.lemanica) dominating near the bottom of the core. Diatom-inferred salinities indicate that saline conditions (about 30 g/L) prevailed throughout subsequent Holocene time, although relatively fresh conditions are indicated following deposition of the Mazama Ash, and from about 1500 yr BP until the present day. Midge and diatom-inferred salinity reconstructions for Mahoney Lake compare favorably with each other, and with climate trends inferred from earlier palynological evidence. The palaeosalinity record thus contributes new data relevant to past climatic conditions, in a region where little data have previously been collected.     

Concentration fluctuation measurements in tracer plumes using high and low frequency response detectors

A set of tracer experiments designed to compare two concentration fluctuation detectors and measure fluctuation statistics at high frequencies is described. A detector which has been used in several previous fluctuation experiments (the TIP photoionisation detector manufactured by Photovac of Canada) is compared with another with a much higher frequency response (the flame ionisation detector — FID — made by Cambustion of the UK). Good agreement is found and results show that the signal optimization system used in previous work with the TIP provides an accurate enhancement of the instrument output, thus improving confidence in the results of previous papers. They also confirm that the TIP detector is able to resolve most of the concentration variance in most situations of interest, but not at very short range. Measurements of the high frequency end of the fluctuation spectrum using the FID show inertial-convective subrange behaviour at frequencies not resolved by the TIP, supporting earlier work. Fluctuation spectra measured very close to the source are also shown to have a characteristic +2/3 power law behaviour (when nSc (n) is plotted against n) at lower frequencies, in agreement with theoretical predictions.     

Denudation rates of a subequatorial orogenic belt based on estimates of sediment yields: evidence from the Paleozoic Appalachian Basin,USA

The Upper Mississippian (ca. 325 Ma) Pride Shale and Glady Fork Member in the Central Appalachian Basin comprise an upward‐coarsening, ca. 60‐m‐thick succession of prodeltaic‐delta front, interlaminated fine‐grained sandstones and mudstones gradational upwards into mouth‐bar and distributary‐channel sandstones. Analysis of laminae bundling in the Pride Shale reveals a hierarchy of tidal cycles (semi‐diurnal, fortnightly neap‐spring) and a distinct annual cyclicity resulting from seasonal fluvial discharge. These tidal rhythmites thus represent high‐resolution chronometers that can be used in basin analysis. Annual cycles average 10 cm in thickness, thus the bulk of the Pride Shale‐Glady Fork Member in any one vertical section is estimated to have accumulated in ca. 600 years. Progradational clinoforms are assumed to have had dips of 0.3–3° with a median dip of 1.7°; the latter infilled a NE‐SW oriented foreland trough up to 300 km long by 50 km wide in the relatively short time period of 90 kyr. The total volume of sediment in the Pride basin is ca. 900 km³ which, for an average sediment density of 2700 kg m^?3, equates to a total mass of ca. 2.4 × 10⁶ Mt. Thus, mass sediment load can be estimated as 27 Mt yr^?1. For a drainage basin area of 89 000 km², based on the scale of architectural channel elements and cross‐set thicknesses in the incised‐valley‐fill deposits of the underlying Princeton Formation, suspended sediment yields are estimated at ca. 310 t km^?2 yr^?1 equating to a mechanical denudation rate of ca. 0.116 mm yr^?1. Calculated sediment yields and inferred denudation rates are comparable to modern rivers such as the Po and Fly and are compatible with a provenance of significant relief and a climate characterized by seasonal, monsoonal discharge. Inferred denudation rates also are consistent with average denudation rates for the Inner Piedmont Terrane of the Appalachians based on flexural modelling. The integration of stratigraphic architectural analysis with a novel chronometric application highlights the utility of sedimentary archives as a record of Earth surface dynamics.     

Characterization of periodic variations in the GPS satellite clocks

The clock products of the International Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) Service (IGS) are used to characterize the timing performance of the GPS satellites. Using 5-min and 30-s observational samples and focusing only on the sub-daily regime, approximate power-law stochastic processes are found. The Block IIA Rb and Cs clocks obey predominantly random walk phase (or white frequency) noise processes. The Rb clocks are up to nearly an order of magnitude more stable and show a flicker phase noise component over intervals shorter than about 100 s. Due to the onboard Time Keeping System in the newer Block IIR and IIR-M satellites, their Rb clocks behave in a more complex way: as an apparent random walk phase process up to about 100 s and then changing to flicker phase up to a few thousand seconds. Superposed on this random background, periodic signals have been detected in all clock types at four harmonic frequencies, n × (2.0029 ± 0.0005) cycles per day (24 h coordinated universal time or UTC), for n = 1, 2, 3, and 4. The equivalent fundamental period is 11.9826 ± 0.0030 h, which surprisingly differs from the reported mean GPS orbital period of 11.9659 ± 0.0007 h by 60 ± 11 s. We cannot account for this apparent discrepancy but note that a clear relationship between the periodic signals and the orbital dynamics is evidenced for some satellites by modulations of the spectral amplitudes with eclipse season. All four harmonics are much smaller for the IIR and IIR-M satellites than for the older blocks. Awareness of the periodic variations can be used to improve the clock modeling, including for interpolation of tabulated IGS products for higher-rate GPS positioning and for predictions in real-time applications. This is especially true for high-accuracy uses, but could also benefit the standard GPS operational products. The observed stochastic properties of each satellite clock type are used to estimate the growth of interpolation and prediction errors with time interval.