Logic-tree Approach for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to the Japanese Coasts

For Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), we propose a logic-tree approach to construct tsunami hazard curves (relationship between tsunami height and probability of exceedance) and present some examples for Japan for the purpose of quantitative assessments of tsunami risk for important coastal facilities. A hazard curve is obtained by integration over the aleatory uncertainties, and numerous hazard curves are obtained for different branches of logic-tree representing epistemic uncertainty. A PTHA consists of a tsunami source model and coastal tsunami height estimation. We developed the logic-tree models for local tsunami sources around Japan and for distant tsunami sources along the South American subduction zones. Logic-trees were made for tsunami source zones, size and frequency of tsunamigenic earthquakes, fault models, and standard error of estimated tsunami heights. Numerical simulation rather than empirical relation was used for estimating the median tsunami heights. Weights of discrete branches that represent alternative hypotheses and interpretations were determined by the questionnaire survey for tsunami and earthquake experts, whereas those representing the error of estimated value were determined on the basis of historical data. Examples of tsunami hazard curves were illustrated for the coastal sites, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard was displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves.     

Determining magma flow in sills,dykes and laccoliths and their implications for sill emplacement mechanisms

Three-dimensional seismic data from the Faeroe-Shetland Basin provides detailed information on the relationships between sills, dykes, laccoliths and contemporaneous volcanic activity. The data shows that sills are predominantly concave upwards, being complete or partial versions of radially or bilaterally symmetrical forms that possess flat inner saucers connected to a flat outer rim by a steeply inclined sheet. Such morphologies are only partially modified by pre-existing faults. Sills can be sourced from dykes or the steep climbing portions of deeper sills. Both sills and dykes can provide magma to overlying volcanic fissures and sills can be shown to feed shallow laccoliths. Magma flow patterns, as revealed by opacity rendering, suggest that sills propagate upwards and outwards away from the magma feeder. As an individual sill can consist of several leaves emplaced at different stratigraphic levels, and as a sill or dyke can provide magma to volcanic fissures, other sills and laccoliths, the data suggests that neutral buoyancy concepts may not provide a complete explanation for the mechanism and level of sill emplacement. Instead, the data suggests that the presence of lithological contrasts, particularly ductile horizons such as overpressured shales may permit sill formation at any level below the neutrally buoyant level. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Ken Thomson–deceased, April 2007     

Concentrations of 137Cs, 90Sr, 108m Ag, 239+240 Pu and atom ratio of 240Pu/239Pu in tanner crabs, Chionoecetes japonicus and Chionoecetes opilio collected around Japan

The anthropogenic radionuclides, ¹³⁷Cs, ⁹⁰Sr, ^108mAg, ^239+240Pu, were measured in two Chionoecetes species, red queen crab (Chionoecetes japonicus) and snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) collected around Japan during 1996–2007. There was no increase in the concentrations of these radionuclides and no large variation of the atom ratio of ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu during this research period. These results indicated that the source of the radionuclides was not the radioactive wastes dumped by the former USSR and Russia and originated from past nuclear weapon tests. The higher atom ratio in the crab species than that from global fallout would be contributed by the Pacific Proving Grounds close-in fallout. The variability of the concentration of radionuclides in the crab species would result from the variability of the composition and quantity in the diet. However, the decrease in the concentration of radionuclides with sampling depth would depend on the concentration in the seawater and diet.     

Measurement of methane flux over an evergreen coniferous forest canopy using a relaxed eddy accumulation system with tuneable diode laser spectroscopy detection

Very few studies have conducted long-term observations of methane (CH₄) flux over forest canopies. In this study, we continuously measured CH₄ fluxes over an evergreen coniferous (Japanese cypress) forest canopy throughout 1?year, using a micrometeorological relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) system with tuneable diode laser spectroscopy (TDLS) detection. The Japanese cypress forest, which is a common forest type in warm-temperate Asian monsoon regions with a wet summer, switched seasonally between a sink and source of CH₄ probably because of competition by methanogens and methanotrophs, which are both influenced by soil conditions (e.g., soil temperature and soil moisture). At hourly to daily timescales, the CH₄ fluxes were sensitive to rainfall, probably because CH₄ emission increased and/or absorption decreased during and after rainfall. The observed canopy-scale fluxes showed complex behaviours beyond those expected from previous plot-scale measurements and the CH₄ fluxes changed from sink to source and vice versa.     

Assessing the potential impact of climate change on the UK’s electricity network

We investigate how weather affects the UK’s electricity network, by examining past data of weather-related faults on the transmission and distribution networks. By formalising the current relationship between weather-related faults and weather, we use climate projections from a regional climate model (RCM) to quantitatively assess how the frequency of these faults may change in the future. This study found that the incidences of both lightning and solar heat faults are projected to increase in the future. There is evidence that the conditions that cause flooding faults may increase in the future, but a reduction cannot be ruled out. Due to the uncertainty associated with future wind projections, there is no clear signal associated with the future frequency of wind and gale faults, however snow, sleet and blizzard faults are projected to decrease due to a reduction in the number of snow days.     

GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap

Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.

Policy relevance

The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.     

Mechanisms of tropical precipitation biases in climate models

Climate Dynamics - We investigate the possible causes for inter-model spread in tropical zonal-mean precipitation pattern, which is divided into hemispherically symmetric and anti-symmetric modes...     

An Issue of Permanence: Assessing the Effectiveness of Temporary Carbon Storage

In this paper, we present a method to quantify the effectiveness of carbon mitigation options taking into account the `permanence' of the emissions reduction. While the issue of permanence is most commonly associated with a `leaky' carbon sequestration reservoir, we argue that this is an issue that applies to just about all carbon mitigation options. The appropriate formulation of this problem is to ask `what is the value of temporary storage?' Valuing temporary storage can be represented as a familiar economic problem, with explicitly stated assumptions about carbon prices and the discount rate. To illustrate the methodology, we calculate the sequestration effectiveness for injecting CO₂ at various depths in the ocean. Analysis is performed for three limiting carbon price assumptions: constant carbon prices (assumes constant marginal damages), carbon prices rise at the discount rate (assumes efficient allocation of a cumulative emissions cap without a backstop technology), and carbon prices first rise at the discount rate but become constant after a given time (assumes introduction of a backstop technology). Our results show that the value of relatively deep ocean carbon sequestration can be nearly equivalent to permanent sequestration if marginal damages (i.e., carbon prices) remain constant or if there is a backstop technology that caps the abatement cost in the not too distant future. On the other hand, if climate damages are such as to require a fixed cumulative emissions limit and there is no backstop, then a storage option with even very slow leakage has limited value relative to a permanent storage option.     

Are estimated costs of stringent mitigation biased?

We take issue with the claim by Tavoni and Tol (Clim Chang 100:769–778, 2010) that reviews of the macroeconomic costs of achieving the 2 °C climate target have been affected by selection bias and have underestimated the costs. Although many more cost estimates are available in the literature, they have restricted their survey to the data in the EMF22 study, with a limited set of model solutions for the 2 °C target. They have applied the methodology of observational meta-analysis inappropriately to policy meta-analysis, where the number of results is often very small and the basis for imputing a statistical distribution does not usually exist. They have mixed direct costs with net costs in terms of %GDP. Their method of “correcting” for missing data with (high) costs of stringent mitigation could equally be applied to correcting the data for omission of mitigation options such as biomass energy with carbon capture so reducing the cost estimates. And finally they implicitly assume that the same policy combinations and mitigation options are applied for all climate scenarios, when more stringent scenarios may require more stringent policies and options, such as regulation or BECCS. The conclusion from the literature is more appropriately that the costs are highly uncertain, that they can equally be positive or negative (gains) and that models which fail to solve for stringent mitigations are not fit for purpose.