The dynamics of learning about a climate threshold

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions may trigger threshold responses of the climate system. One relevant example of such a potential threshold response is a shutdown of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Numerous studies have analyzed the problem of early MOC change detection (i.e., detection before the forcing has committed the system to a threshold response). Here we analyze the early MOC prediction problem. To this end, we virtually deploy an MOC observation system into a simple model that mimics potential future MOC responses and analyze the timing of confident detection and prediction. Our analysis suggests that a confident prediction of a potential threshold response can require century time scales, considerably longer that the time required for confident detection. The signal enabling early prediction of an approaching MOC threshold in our model study is associated with the rate at which the MOC intensity decreases for a given forcing. A faster MOC weakening implies a higher MOC sensitivity to forcing. An MOC sensitivity exceeding a critical level results in a threshold response. Determining whether an observed MOC trend in our model differs in a statistically significant way from an unforced scenario (the detection problem) imposes lower requirements on an observation system than the determination whether the MOC will shut down in the future (the prediction problem). As a result, the virtual observation systems designed in our model for early detection of MOC changes might well fail at the task of early and confident prediction. Transferring this conclusion to the real world requires a considerably refined MOC model, as well as a more complete consideration of relevant observational constraints.     

Foraminifera from the early Danian intertrappean beds in Rajahmundry quarries,Andhra Pradesh

Intertrappean beds exposed between upper and lower traps of the Government and Sunnamrayalu quarries of Rajahmundry were analyzed based on benthic and planktic foraminifera, ostracodes and algae observed in thin sections. Planktic foraminifera indicate deposition occurred in the early Danian Parvularugoglobigerina eugubina (P1a) zone shortly after deposition of the lower trap flows. The most diverse planktic assemblages were deposited in limestones of the middle intertrappean interval and indicate an upper P1a age, or subzone P1a(2), as marked by the co-occurrence of P. eugubina, Globoconusa daubjergensis, Parasubbotina pseudobulloides and Subbotina triloculinoides. Reworked late Maastrichtian planktic foraminifera are common in a limestone interval and suggest erosion of uplifted Cretaceous sediments. Benthic foraminiferal assemblages indicate deposition occurred predominantly in shallow inner shelf to brackish environments. Similarly, ostracodes indicate variable environments ranging from inner neritic to brackish with fresh water influx, as also indicated by the presence of fresh water algae. These data confirm an overall deepening from restricted shallow marine to estuarine, lagoonal and finally open marine conditions followed by abrupt emersion and paleosoil deposition prior to the arrival of the upper trap flows at or near the base of C29n.     

The cratering history of asteroid (2867) Steins

The cratering history of main belt asteroid (2867) Steins has been investigated using OSIRIS imagery acquired during the Rosetta flyby that took place on the 5th of September 2008. For this purpose, we applied current models describing the formation and evolution of main belt asteroids, that provide the rate and velocity distributions of impactors. These models coupled with appropriate crater scaling laws, allow the cratering history to be estimated. Hence, we derive Steins’ cratering retention age, namely the time lapsed since its formation or global surface reset. We also investigate the influence of various factors—like bulk structure and crater erasing—on the estimated age, which spans from a few hundred Myrs to more than 1 Gyr, depending on the adopted scaling law and asteroid physical parameters. Moreover, a marked lack of craters smaller than about 0.6 km has been found and interpreted as a result of a peculiar evolution of Steins cratering record, possibly related either to the formation of the 2.1 km wide impact crater near the south pole or to YORP reshaping.     

Palaeokarst in the Ordovician of the southern Great Basin, USA: implications for sea-level history

Abundant and regionally unique dolostone lithoclast breccias occur throughout the shallow-marine, Lower to Middle Ordovician Pogonip Group in the Nopah Range and adjacent ranges in eastern California and southern Nevada. Breccia bodies display sharply cross-cutting relationships with host dolostone bedrock stratigraphy. They also show stratigraphic variability in size, shape and dolostone clast composition, but similarity in breccia matrix composition and framework texture and fabric. These characteristics are consistent with a palaeokarst origin. Upsection changes in breccia clast lithology as well as multiple occurrences of associated quartz sand-filled grikes (solution-widened fissures) indicate multiple episodes of carbonate platform exposure and karstification. Repeated karstification is also indicated by stratiform bodies of quartz sand and thin terra rossa palaeosols that locally truncate breccias and grike systems, thus bracketing karstified exposure surfaces. Facies successions and stacking patterns between recognized exposure surfaces are developed as transgressive–regressive cycles and thus show depositional sequence architecture. Hence, these breccias and other associated palaeokarst features are related to a succession of disconformities that provide a sequence-stratigraphic framework for assessing Ordovician relative sea-level history of the south-western Cordilleran margin of Laurentia.     

Studies of volcanic ash from two recent Central American eruptions

The 1971 eruptions of Cerro Negro volcano in Nicaragua and Fuego volcano in Guatemala produced ash blankets with minimum volumes of 7 × 10⁷ m³ and 6 × 10⁷ m³, respectively. Seven new chemical analyses show that ash produced by both eruptions was basaltic and similar to previously — erupted lavas of both volcanoes. Both ash blankets were sampled areally and stratigraphically before they were affected by rain. Chemical analyses of soluble materials leached from these ashes show that near the end of both eruptions the concentrations of soluble materials increased by about an order of magnitude. These changes are believed to reflect changes in the composition of eruptive gases.     

Analysis of State and Provincial Atlas Reviews*

Ninety-eight reviews of state and provincial atlases are examined in order to address several questions. Reviews are subjected to content analysis to identify the judgement criteria that experts use in evaluating a provincial or state atlas, and the aspects of each criterion that reviewers praise or condemn. An attempt is made to search for expert consensus and to identify a provincial or state atlas review recipe. The research reported here is part of a larger study undertaken to assist those in the process of planning a new provincial or state atlas initiative. This paper also assists individuals who are searching for rules and guidelines when undertaking an atlas review.     

Magnetic polarity stratigraphy of the Upper Siwalik deposits,Pabbi Hills,Pakistan

Over 1000 m of fluvial molasse, exhibiting a stable detrital remanent magnetization, is exposed in a mammal-bearing sequence in the Upper Siwalik Group of the Pabbi Hills, Pakistan. The magnetic polarity chronology reveals that the sequence records a time period of 2.6 m.y., extending from the early Gauss Normal Epoch into the Brunhes Normal Epoch. During this period, sedimentation rates increased upward in time from 0.25 m/1000 yr to 0.45 m/1000 yr. The sudden disappearance of red beds and a change in the lithoclastic composition of basal channel sands suggests that about 800,000 years ago the primary source area began shifting from the metamorphic terrane of the Himalayan Orogen to a more local sedimentary terrane on the folded margins of the Himalayan foredeep. About 500,000 years ago the anticlinal Pabbi Hills attained surface expression. Uplift continued at a minimum rate of 1 m/1000 yr.A local Pliocene/Pleistocene boundary based on the Olduvai Normal Event is clearly recognized. Local fossil finds reveal thatEquus, diagnostic element of the Pinjor faunal zone, appeared locally about 1.8 m.y. ago and thatHipparion, a faunal element of the Tatrot and earlier faunal zones, persisted locally until at least 3.0 m.y. ago.     

Koritnigit,Zn[H2O|HOAsO3], ein neues Mineral aus Tsumeb,Südwestafrika

Zusammenfassung Das neue Mineral Koritnigit ist ein wasserhaltiges Zinkhydrogenarsenat der Formel Zn[H₂O|HOAsO₃]. Die chemische Analyse (Elektronenmikrosonde und T.G.A.) ergab: As₂O₅ 51,75%, ZnO 35,97% und H₂O 12,3%, Summe 100,0%. Die HOAsO₃-Ionen wurden IR-spektroskopisch nachgewiesen. Koritnigit ist löslich in kalter, verdünnter HCl und HNO₃.Die Gitterkonstanten sind:a ₀=7,948(2),b ₀=15,829(5),c ₀=6,668(2) Å, =90,86(2), =96,56(2), =90,05(2)^o,V=833,2(4)ų,V=8. Die Raumgruppe ist . Die stärksten Linien des Pulverdiagramms sind: 7,90(10) (020,100), 3,83(7) ( ), 3,16(9) ( ) 2,926(4) (150), 2,679(4) ( ), 2,461(6) ( ), 2,186(5) ( ), 1,969(4) (400), 1,649(3) (004).Koritnigit ist wasserklar bis durchscheinend weiß. Idiomorphe Kristalle sind nicht bekannt. Die Spaltbarkeit nach {010} ist ausgezeichnet und auf {010} sind Spaltspuren nach [001] und nach [100] erkennbar. Härte 2.G=3,54 g·cm^–3,D _x =3,56 g·cm^–3. Koritnigit ist optisch zweiachsig positiv, 2V70(5)^o. Die Werte der Lichtbrechung sind:n =1,632(5),n =1,652(3) undn =1,693(3).Koritnigit wurde auf der 31. Sohle der Tsumeb-Mine, Südwestafrika gefunden. Er kommt als Sekundärmineral in Paragenese mit Cu-Adamin, Stranskiit und drei weiteren, vorerst nicht identifizierten mineralen in Zersetzungshohlräumen von Tennantit vor.

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Koritnigite, Zn[H₂O|HOAsO₃], a new mineral from Tsumeb, South West Africa

Summary The new mineral koritnigite is a hydrated zinc hydrogen arsenate with the formula Zn[H₂O|HOAsO₃]. Chemical analysis (electron microprobe and t.g.a.) gave: As₂O₅ 51.75%, ZnO 35.97%, and H₂O 12.3%, total 100.0%. The HOAsO₃ ions were determined by IR spectroscopy. Koritnigite is soluble in cold diluted HCl and HNO₃. The unit cell dimensions are:a ₀=7.948(2),b ₀=15.829(5),c ₀=6.668(2)Å, =90.86(2), =96.56(2), =90.05(2)^o,V=833.2(4) ų,Z=8. The space group is . The strongest lines of the powder pattern are: 7.90(10) (020, 100), 3.83(7) ( ), 3.16(9) ( ), 2.926(4) (150), 2.679(4) ( ), 2.461(6) ( ), 2.186(5) ( ), 1.969(4)(400), 1.649(3) (004).

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Herrn Univ. Prof. Dr.H. Meixner zum 70. Geburtstag gewidmet.     

DC resistivity methods for determining resistivity in the earth's crust

The use of Schlumberger and dipole arrays for crustal-scale resistivity soundings is considered. Advantages and disadvantages of the two methods are described. The depth to which resistivity may be determined from field measurements is discussed as well as the determination from the sounding curves of various parameters associated with layered structure. The interpretation of experimental data using reference curves as well as two approaches used in computer assisted interpretation are discussed.