Implications of model uncertainty for the mapping of hillslope‐scale soil erosion predictions

An integrated modelling approach (MIRSED) which utilizes the process‐based soil erosion model WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) is presented for the assessment of hillslope‐scale soil erosion at five sites throughout England and Wales. The methodology draws upon previous uncertainty analysis of the WEPP hillslope soil erosion model by the authors to qualify model results within an uncertainty framework. A method for incorporating model uncertainty from a range of sources is discussed as a first step towards using and learning from results produced through the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) technique. Results are presented and compared to available observed data, which illustrate that levels of uncertainty are significant and must be taken into account if a meaningful understanding of output from models such as WEPP is to be achieved. Furthermore, the collection of quality, observed data is underlined for two reasons: as an essential tool in the development of soil erosion modelling and also to allow further constraint of model uncertainty. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Petroleum Hydrocarbon Bioventing Kinetics Determined in Soil Core, Microcosm, and Tubing Cluster Studies

Aerobic biodegradation of vapor-phase petroleum hydrocarbons was evaluated in an intact soil core from the site of an aviation gasoline release. An unsaturated zone soil core was subjected to a flow of nitrogen gas, oxygen, water vapor, and vapor-phase hydrocarbons in a configuration analogous to a biofilter or an in situ bioventing or sparging situation. The vertical profiles of vapor-phase hydrocarbon concentration in the soil core were determined by gas chromatography of vapor samples. Biodegradation reduced low influent hydrocarbon concentrations by 45 to 92 percent over a 0.6-m interval of an intact soil core. The estimated total hydrocarbon concentration was reduced by 75 percent from 26 to 7 parts per million. Steady-state concentrations were input to a simple analytical model balancing advection and first-order biodegradation of hydrocarbons. First-order rate constants for the major hydrocarbon compounds were used to calibrate the model to the concentration profiles. Rate constants for the seven individual hydrocarbon compounds varied by a factor of 4. Compounds with lower molecular weights, fewer methyl groups, and no quaternary carbons tended to have higher rate constants. The first-order rate constants were consistent with kinetic parameters determined from both microcosm and tubing cluster studies at the field site.     

Geochemistry of waters in the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes region, Alaska

Meteoric waters from cold springs and streams outside of the 1912 eruptive deposits filling the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes (VTTS) and in the upper parts of the two major rivers draining the 1912 deposits have similar chemical trends. Thermal springs issue in the mid-valley area along a 300-m lateral section of ash-flow tuff, and range in temperature from 21 to 29.8°C in early summer and from 15 to 17°C in mid-summer. Concentrations of major and minor chemical constituents in the thermal waters are nearly identical regardless of temperature. Waters in the downvalley parts of the rivers draining the 1912 deposits are mainly mixtures of cold meteoric waters and thermal waters of which the mid-valley thermal spring waters are representative. The weathering reactions of cold waters with the 1912 deposits appear to have stabilized and add only subordinate amounts of chemical constituents to the rivers relative to those contributed by the thermal waters. Isotopic data indicate that the mid-valley thermal spring waters are meteoric, but data is inconclusive regarding the heat source. The thermal waters could be either from a shallow part of a hydrothermal system beneath the 1912 vent region or from an incompletely cooled, welded tuff lens deep in the 1912 ash-flow sheet of the upper River Lethe area.Bicarbonate-sulfate waters resulting from interaction of near-surface waters and the cooling 1953–1968 southwest Trident plug issue from thermal springs south of Katmai Pass and near Mageik Creek, although the Mageik Creek spring waters are from a well-established, more deeply circulating hydrothermal system. Katmai caldera lake waters are a result of acid gases from vigorous drowned fumaroles dissolving in lake waters composed of snowmelt and precipitation.     

A terrestrial shear pattern?

The concept of the strain ellipsoid is applied to indicate a possible regular shear pattern of earthquake distribution over the Earth's surface. A simple model of the Earth is assumed in the form of a rotating sphere with a plastic interior and a thin, fragile, crust. On this basis rotation of the Earth generates an internal radial pressure at the equator equivalent to 1/300g causing a proportionate distortion of the spherical shell. The system is in dynamic equilibrium with an increase in gravity at the equator. The ellipsoid representing the distortion, has orthogonal principal axes corresponding to the principal strains while radial directions at 54°44 from the poles are unchanged in length and are thus possible axes of shear generating the same distortion. The Alpide region of earthquakes extending from Lisbon to Tokyo and restriction of earthquakes mainly to the broad band between latitudes 55°N or S are in support of the proposed view.Four unique sets of orthogonal shear systems have been identified which form a regular pattern with a definite symmetry with respect to the plane of the ecliptic. This suggests that the hoop stress at the Equator associated with Earth rotation may be triggered off by tidal forces and that earthquake prediction may well be possible. Other implications of this new approach are also discussed.     

Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.