The Queens' flare: Its structure and development; precursors,pre-flare brightenings,and aftermaths

We continue previous research on the limb flare of 30 April, 1980, 20:20 UT, observed in X-rays by several instruments aboard the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM). It is shown quantitatively that the flare originated in an emerging magnetically confined kernel (diameter ～ 20″) which existed for about ten to fifteen minutes, and from which energetic electrons streamed, in at least two injections, into a previously existing complicated magnetic loop system thus forming a less bright but extended and long-lived tongue. The tongue had a length of ～ 35 000 km and lasted ～ 90 min in X-rays (～ 10 keV); at lower energies (～ 0.7 keV) it was larger (～ 80 000 km) and lasted longer. The total number of energetic electrons (≈ 10³⁷) initially present in the kernel is of the same order as the number present in the tongue after the kernel's decline. This gives evidence that the energetic electrons in the tongue originated mainly in the kernel. The electron number densities in the kernel and tongue at maximum brightness were ～ 4.5 × 10¹¹ and ～ 1 × 10¹¹ cm^#X2212;3, respectively. During the first eight minutes of its existence the tongue was hotter than the kernel, but it cooled off gradually. Its decline in intensity and temperature was exponential; energy was lost by radiation and by conduction through the footpoints of the loop system. These footpoints have a cross-section of only ～ 3 × 10⁶ km². This small value, as well as photographs in a Civ UV emission line, suggests a highly filamentary structure of the system; this is further supported by the finding that the tongue had a ‘filling factor’ of ～ 10^#X2212;2. Several faint X-ray brightenings (? 0.005 of the flare's maximum intensity) were observed at various locations along the solar limb for several hours before and after the flare. At ～ 30 min before the flare's onset a faint (? 0.02) flare precursor occurred, coinciding in place and shape with the flare. First the kernel precursor was brightest but the tongue precursor increased continuously in brightness and was the brightest part of the precursor some 10–15 min after the first visibility of the kernel precursor, until the start of the main flare. This suggests (weak) continuous electron acceleration in the tongue during a period of at least 30 min. The main flare was caused by strong emergence of magnetic field followed by two consecutive field line reconnections and accelerations in a small loop system, causing footpoint heating. Subsequently plasma streamed (convectively) into a pre-existing system of larger loops, forming the tongue.     

A replicated 3000 yr proxy-climate record from Coom Rigg Moss and Felecia Moss,the Border Mires,northern England

Quantitative plant macrofossil and colorimetric humification analyses have been used to reconstruct proxy-climate from two paired ombrotrophic bogs in northern England (Coom Rigg Moss and Felecia Moss). Detrended correspondence analysis was used to transform the raw floral data into indices of mire surface wetness. The chronology of each peat profile was determined by radiocarbon assay, supported by pollen correlations. Palaeoclimatic reconstructions have been made by linking documented historical changes in climate, and other proxy-climate records, to those inferred from the sites investigated in the study region. Both sites contain a sensitive palaeoclimatic record, as ten periods of increased effective precipitation have been detected between ca. cal. ad 1770–1800, ad 1400–1470, ad 1110–1260, ad 920–1060, ad 550–670, ad 210–360, 30 bc to ad 80, 180–130 bc, 590–520 bc and 760–710 bc. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Event and model dependent rainfall adjustments to improve discharge predictions

Most conceptual rainfall–runoff models use as input spatially averaged rainfall fields which are typically associated with significant errors that affect the model outcome. In this study, it was hypothesised that a simple spatially and temporally averaged event-dependent rainfall multiplier can account for errors in the rainfall input. The potentials and limitations of this lumped multiplier approach were explored by evaluating the effects of multipliers on the accuracy and precision of the predictive distributions. Parameter sets found to be behavioural across a range of different flood events were assumed to be a good representation of the catchment dynamics and were used to identify rainfall multipliers for each of the individual events. An effect of the parameter sets on identified multipliers was found; however, it was small compared to the differences between events. Accounting for event-dependent multipliers improved the reliability of the predictions. At the cost of a small decrease in precision, the distribution of identified multipliers for past events can be used to account for possible rainfall errors when predicting future events. By using behavioural parameter sets to identify rainfall multipliers, the method offers a simple and computationally efficient way to address rainfall errors in hydrological modelling.     

Scenario Evaluator for Electrical Resistivity Survey Pre‐modeling Tool

Geophysical tools have much to offer users in environmental, water resource, and geotechnical fields; however, techniques such as electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) are often oversold and/or overinterpreted due to a lack of understanding of the limitations of the techniques, such as the appropriate depth intervals or resolution of the methods. The relationship between ERI data and resistivity is nonlinear; therefore, these limitations depend on site conditions and survey design and are best assessed through forward and inverse modeling exercises prior to field investigations. In this approach, proposed field surveys are first numerically simulated given the expected electrical properties of the site, and the resulting hypothetical data are then analyzed using inverse models. Performing ERI forward/inverse modeling, however, requires substantial expertise and can take many hours to implement. We present a new spreadsheet‐based tool, the Scenario Evaluator for Electrical Resistivity (SEER), which features a graphical user interface that allows users to manipulate a resistivity model and instantly view how that model would likely be interpreted by an ERI survey. The SEER tool is intended for use by those who wish to determine the value of including ERI to achieve project goals, and is designed to have broad utility in industry, teaching, and research.     

Assessing the significance of wet-canopy evaporation from forests during extreme rainfall events for flood mitigation in mountainous regions of the United Kingdom

There is increased interest in the potential of tree planting to help mitigate flooding using nature-based solutions or natural flood management. However, many publications based upon catchment studies conclude that, as flood magnitude increases, benefit from forest cover declines and is insignificant for extreme flood events. These conclusions conflict with estimates of evaporation loss from forest plot observations of gross rainfall, through fall and stem flow. This study explores data from existing studies to assess the magnitudes of evaporation and attempts to identify the meteorological conditions under which they would be supported. This is achieved using rainfall event data collated from publications and data archives from studies undertaken in temperate environments around the world. The meteorological conditions required to drive the observed evaporation losses are explored theoretically using the Penman–Monteith equation. The results of this theoretical analysis are compared with the prevailing meteorological conditions during large and extreme rainfall events in mountainous regions of the United Kingdom to assess the likely significance of wet canopy evaporation loss. The collated dataset showed that event Ewc losses between approximately 2 and 38% of gross rainfall (1.5 to 39.4 mm day⁻¹) have been observed during large rainfall events (up to 118 mm day⁻¹) and that there are few data for extreme events (>150 mm day⁻¹). Event data greater than 150 mm (reported separately) included similarly high percentage evaporation losses. Theoretical estimates of wet-canopy evaporation indicated that, to reproduce the losses towards the high end of these observations, relative humidity and the aerodynamic resistance for vapour transport needed to be lower than approximately 97.5% and 0.5 to 2 s m⁻¹ respectively. Surface meteorological data during large and extreme rainfall events in the United Kingdom suggest that conditions favourable for high wet-canopy evaporation are not uncommon and indicate that significant evaporation losses during large and extreme events are possible but not for all events and not at all locations. Thus the disparity with the results from catchment studies remains.     

Production of bioavailable and refractory dissolved organic matter by coastal heterotrophic microbial populations

Production of dissolved organic matter (DOM) by heterotrophic microbial communities isolated from Loch Creran (Scotland) was studied in time course incubations in which cells were re-suspended in artificial seawater amended with variable proportions of glucose, ammonium and phosphate. The incubation experiments demonstrated that microheterotrophs released part of the substrate as new DOM, with a production efficiency of 11 ± 1% for DOC, 18 ± 2% for DON and 17 ± 2% for DOP. Estimating the impact of this production in Loch Creran, showed that from 3 ± 1% (DOC) to 72 ± 16% (DOP) of DOM could originate from the heterotrophic microbial community. The produced DOM (PDOM) was both bioavailable (BDOM) and refractory (RDOM). Bioavailability as assessed by the difference between the maximum and the end DOM concentration, was generally higher than found in natural systems, with DOP (73 ± 15%, average ± SD) more bioavailable than DON (70 ± 15%), and DON than DOC (34 ± 13%).The stoichiometry of PDOM was linked to both nutrient uptake and BDOM ratios. Absorption and fluorescence of DOM increased significantly during the incubation time, indicating that microheterotrophs were also a source of coloured DOM (CDOM) and that they produce both bioavailable protein-like and refractory humic-like fluorophores.     

Toward accountable land use mapping: Using geocomputation to improve classification accuracy and reveal uncertainty

The classification of satellite imagery into land use/cover maps is a major challenge in the field of remote sensing. This research aimed at improving the classification accuracy while also revealing uncertain areas by employing a geocomputational approach. We computed numerous land use maps by considering both image texture and band ratio information in the classification procedure. For each land use class, those classifications with the highest class-accuracy were selected and combined into class-probability maps. By selecting the land use class with highest probability for each pixel, we created a hard classification. We stored the corresponding class probabilities in a separate map, indicating the spatial uncertainty in the hard classification. By combining the uncertainty map and the hard classification we created a probability-based land use map, containing spatial estimates of the uncertainty. The technique was tested for both ASTER and Landsat 5 satellite imagery of Gorizia, Italy, and resulted in a 34% and 31% increase, respectively, in the kappa coefficient of classification accuracy. We believe that geocomputational classification methods can be used generally to improve land use and land cover classification from imagery, and to help incorporate classification uncertainty into the resultant map themes.     

Evolution of boundary‐layer aerosol particles due to in‐cloud chemical reactions during the 2nd Lagrangian experiment of ACE‐2

The second Aerosol Characterisation Experiment (ACE‐2) was aimed at investigating the physical, chemical and radiative properties of aerosol and their evolution in the North Atlantic region. In the 2nd "Lagrangian" experiment, an air mass was tracked over a 30‐h period during conditions of extensive stratocumulus cover. Boundary‐layer measurements of the aerosol size distribution obtained with a passive cavity aerosol spectrometer probe (PCASP) during the experiment show a gradual growth in size of particles in the 0.1–0.2 μm diameter mode. Simultaneously, SO₂ concentrations were found to decrease sharply from 800 to 20 ppt. The fraction of sulphate in aerosol ionic mass increased from 0.68±0.07 to 0.82±0.09 for small particles (diameter below 1.7 μm) and from 0.21±0.04 to 0.34±0.03 for large particles (diameter above 1.7 μm). The measurements were compared with a multicyclic parcel model of gas phase diffusion into cloud droplets and aqueous phase chemical reactions. The model was able to broadly reproduce the observed transformation in the aerosol spectra and the timescale for the transformation of SO₂ to sulphate aerosol. The modelled SO₂ concentration in the boundary layer fell to below half its initial value over a 6.5‐h time period due to a combination of the entrainment of cleaner tropospheric air and cloud chemical reactions. NH₃ and HCl gas were also found to play an important rôle in cloud processing in the model.