Echoes from an irradiated disc in GRO J1655–40

Oscillations observed in the light curve of Nova V1974 Cygni 1992 since the summer of 1994 have been interpreted as permanent superhumps. From simple calculations based on the tidal disc instability model of Osaki, and assuming that the accretion disc is the dominant optical source in the binary system, we predict that the nova will evolve to become an SU UMa system as its brightness declines from its present value by another 2–3 mag. Linear extrapolation of its current rate of fading (in magnitude units) puts the time of this phase transition within the next 2–4 yr. Alternatively, the brightness decline will stop before the nova reaches that level, and the system will continue to show permanent superhumps in its light curve. It will then be similar to two other old novae, V603 Aql and CP Pup, which still display the permanent superhump phenomenon 80 and 56 yr, respectively, after their eruptions. We suggest that non-magnetic novae with short orbital periods could be progenitors of permanent superhump systems.     

When is it appropriate to combine expert judgments?

Summary Rather than seeking improved methodologies, difficulty in combining expert opinion should serve as a warning flag that causes us to seek alternative modes of policy analysis. These alternatives are usually more appropriate for the real audience for our analyses.Policy analysis of climate change is too often framed in terms that amount to preparing the tools with which a benevolent world dictator could do cost-benefit analysis. This tends to overemphasize end-to-end analysis that must rely on the combined opinions of experts. This framing is unrealistic and encourages omission of important aspects of the climate problem such as its heterogeneity. Rejecting this framing in favor of alternate, less all encompassing, forms of policy analysis permits more robust results, and reduces the emphasis on combining expert opinion.While the opinions expressed here are my own, I thank Hadi Dowlatabadi, M. Granger Morgan, Ted Parson, and James Risbey for their perceptive comments.     

A laboratory study of the biogeochemical cycling of Fe,Mn, Zn and Cu across the sediment-water interface of a productive lake

Laboratory incubation experiments were carried out on sediment cores collected from Esthwaite Water, U.K., during April 1987, when the sediments displayed a characteristic surface (1.5 to 2 cm) oxide floc. The experiments were undertaken at 10°C, in the dark, under variable redox and pH conditions for periods of ~ 720 h (30 d). In some cases, realistic amounts of decomposing lake algae were added to simulate the deposition of an algal bloom. Pore waters and overlying waters were obtained from the incubated sediment cores at various time intervals and the samples analysed for pH and dissolved Fe, Mn, Zn and Cu by AAS. The results demonstrated that trace metal concentrations at the sediment-water interface can show rapid, pulsed responses to episodic events associated with controlling factors such as algal deposition and mixing conditions. The variations in dissolved Fe and Mn concentrations could generally be explained by their well known redox behaviour. Appreciable loss of Mn from solution under conditions of well-developed anoxia was consistent with adsorption of Mn²⁺ by FeS. Cu and Zn were both rapidly (24 h) released into solution during incubation of sediment cores prior to the development of anoxia in the overlying waters. Their most likely sources were the reductive remobilization of Mn oxides and the decomposition of organic matter. The addition of decomposing algae to a series of cores resulted in even higher interfacial dissolved concentrations of Cu and Zn, probably through acting as a supplementary source of the metals and through increased oxide dissolution. Switching from anoxic to oxic conditions also rapidly increased dissolved Cu and Zn concentrations, possibly due to their release during the oxidation of metal sulphides. The enhanced releases of dissolved Cu and Zn were generally short-lived with removal being attributed to the formation of sulphides during anoxia and to adsorption by Fe and Mn oxides under oxic conditions.     

Economics of mining law

Modern mining law, by facilitating socially and environmentally acceptable exploration, development, and production of mineral materials, helps secure the benefits of mineral production while minimizing environmental harm and accounting for increasing land-use competition. Mining investments are sunk costs, irreversibly tied to a particular mineral site, and require many years to recoup. Providing security of tenure is the most critical element of a practical mining law.Governments owning mineral rights have a conflict of interest between their roles as a profit-maximizing landowner and as a guardian of public welfare. As a monopoly supplier, governments have considerable power to manipulate mineral-rights markets. To avoid monopoly rent-seeking by governments, a competitive market for government-owned mineral rights must be created by artifice.What mining firms will pay for mineral rights depends on expected exploration success and extraction costs. Landowners and mining firms will negotlate respective shares of anticipated differential rents, usually allowing for some form of risk sharing. Private landowners do not normally account for external benefits or costs of minerals use.Government ownership of mineral rights allows for direct accounting of social prices for mineral-bearing lands and external costs. An equitable and efficient method is to charge an appropriate reservation price for surface land use, net of the value of land after reclamation, and to recover all or part of differential rents through a flat income or resource-rent tax. The traditional royalty on gross value of production, essentially a regressive income tax, cannot recover as much rent as a flat income tax, causes arbitrary mineral-reserve sterilization, and creates a bias toward development on the extensive margin where marginal environmental costs are higher.Mitigating environmental costs and resolving land-use conflicts require local evaluation and planning. National oversight ensures that the relative global avaliability of minerals and other values are considered, and can also promote adaptive efficiency by publicizing creative local solutions, providing technical support, and funding useful research.     

Trace element characteristics of graywackes and tectonic setting discrimination of sedimentary basins

The graywackes of Paleozoic turbidite sequences of eastern Australia show a large variation in their trace element characteristics, which reflect distinct provenance types and tectonic settings for various suites. The tectonic settings recognised are oceanic island arc, continental island arc, active continental margin, and passive margins. Immobile trace elements, e.g. La, Ce, Nd, Th, Zr, Nb, Y, Sc and Co are very useful in tectonic setting discrimination. In general, there is a systematic increase in light rare earth elements (La, Ce, Nd), Th, Nb and the Ba/Sr, Rb/Sr, La/Y and Ni/Co ratios and a decrease in V, Sc and the Ba/Rb, K/Th and K/U ratios in graywackes from oceanic island arc to continental island arc to active continental margin to passive margin settings. On the basis of graywacke geochemistry, the optimum discrimination of the tectonic settings of sedimentary basins is achieved by La-Th, La-Th-Sc, Ti/Zr-La/Sc, La/Y-Sc/Cr, Th-Sc-Zr/10 and Th-Co-Zr/10 plots. The analysed oceanic island arc graywackes are characterised by extremely low abundances of La, Th, U, Zr, Nb; low Th/U and high La/Sc, La/Th, Ti/Zr, Zr/Th ratios. The studied graywackes of the continental island arc type setting are characterised by increased abundances of La, Th, U, Zr and Nb, and can be identified by the La-Th-Sc and La/Sc versus Ti/Zr plots. Active continental margin and passive margin graywackes are discriminated by the Th-Sc-Zr/10 and Th-Co-Zr/10 plots and associated parameters (e.g. Th/Zr, Th/Sc). The most important characteristic of the analysed passive margin type graywackes is the increased abundance of Zr, high Zr/Th and lower Ba, Rb, Sr and Ti/Zr ratio compared to the active continental margin graywackes.     

The historical geography of homicide in the U.S., 1935–1980

High homicide rates constitute a major public health problem in the United States. In the South high rates have been historically conspicuous, and have contributed to the elevated level in the U.S. compared to other countries at a comparable stage of development. This research illustrates the historical persistence of homicide in the South and presents a regionalization of U.S. states based on their quinquennial homicide profiles since 1935. Several social indicators are plotted against trends in lethal violence for the homicide regions. The analysis suggests a pattern of rates declining away from a core region in Alabama and Georgia, and some convergence between the high rates of the South and the increasing rates of other regions. Southern homicide rates remain high in spite of suggestions that cultural differences between the South and other regions have eroded to insignificance.     

A numerical compaction model of overpressuring in shales

A one-dimensional model of sediment compaction is presented to relate pressure, porosity, permeability, and fluid and solid-particle velocities in an evolving sedimentary basin. The burial history of a sedimentary package is followed and incorporated into rate models for diagenetic reactions to predict clay compositions with depth. The governing set of nonlinear, partial differential equations constitutes a moving boundary problem and is solved by a finite difference scheme. Sedimentation rates and a permeability-porosity function for shales are required to implement the model. Additional factors are incorporated to mimic the effect of increased fluid volume generated by dehydration from clay mineral transformations and by thermal expansion. We demonstrate that the major cause of overpressuring in sediments accumulating along passive margins is nonequilibrium compaction. Sedimentation rates and strata permeability are the most important geologic factors in the formation of overpressured zones. Smectite dehydration and aquathermal pressuring play secondary roles in the development and sustenance of overpressures.     

Some observations on suspended sediment dynamics in Storbregrova,Jotunheimen

Observations are reported of the dynamics of suspended sediment transport in the meltstream of Storbreen in the Jotunheimen. Fine sediment is transferred from the subglacial to the proglacial environment during low flow (meltdominated) periods, and then removed from the catchment during high flow (rainfall-controlled) events. Both diurnal and storm period sediment load-discharge relationships involve clockwise hysteresis, but separate multivariate rating curves define variations of load with streamflow according to (1) the relative importance of meltwater and rainfall runoff, and (2) changes in the sediment source areas contributing to the stream at different times. Particle size variations in the suspended sediment also reflect varying source area influences.     

Distribution of thermal areas on an active lava flow field: Landsat observations of Kilauea,Hawaii, July 1991

A Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) image acquired on 23 July 1991 recorded widespread activity associated with the Episode 48 of the Pu'u 'O'o-Kupaianaha eruption of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii. The scene contains a very large number (>3500) of thermally elevated near infrared (0.8–2.35 m) pixels (each 900 m²), which enable the spatial distribution of volcanic activity to be identified. This activity includes a lava lake within Pu'u 'O'o cone, an active lava tube system (7.9 km in length) with skylights between the Kupaianaha lava shield and several ocean entry points, and extensive active surface flows (total area of 1.3 km²) within a much larger area of cooling flows (total16 km²). The production of an average flux density map from the TM data of the flow field, wherein the average flux density is defined in units of Wm^-2, allows for the chronology of emplacement of active and cooling flows to be determined. The flux density map reveals that there were at least three breakouts (>5000 Wm^-2) feeding active flows, but on the day that the data were collected the TM recorded a waning phase of surface activity in this area, based on the relatively large amount of intermediate power-emitting (cooling) flows compared to high power-emitting (active) flows. The production of a comparable flux density map for future eruptions would aid in the assessment of volcanic hazards if the data were available in near-real time.