Earthquake Recurrence in Simulated Fault Systems

We employ a computationally efficient fault system earthquake simulator, RSQSim, to explore effects of earthquake nucleation and fault system geometry on earthquake occurrence. The simulations incorporate rate- and state-dependent friction, high-resolution representations of fault systems, and quasi-dynamic rupture propagation. Faults are represented as continuous planar surfaces, surfaces with a random fractal roughness, and discontinuous fractally segmented faults. Simulated earthquake catalogs have up to 10⁶ earthquakes that span a magnitude range from ～M4.5 to M8. The seismicity has strong temporal and spatial clustering in the form of foreshocks and aftershocks and occasional large-earthquake pairs. Fault system geometry plays the primary role in establishing the characteristics of stress evolution that control earthquake recurrence statistics. Empirical density distributions of earthquake recurrence times at a specific point on a fault depend strongly on magnitude and take a variety of complex forms that change with position within the fault system. Because fault system geometry is an observable that greatly impacts recurrence statistics, we propose using fault system earthquake simulators to define the empirical probability density distributions for use in regional assessments of earthquake probabilities.     

Simulated effect of a forest road on near‐surface hydrologic response: redux

In the work reported here the comprehensive physics‐based Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM) was employed to conduct both three‐ and two‐dimensional (3D and 2D) hydrologic‐response simulations for the small upland catchment known as C3 (located within the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest in Oregon). Results from the 3D simulations for the steep unchannelled C3 (i) identify subsurface stormflow as the dominant hydrologic‐response mechanism and (ii) show the effect of the down‐gradient forest road on both the surface and subsurface flow systems. Comparison of the 3D results with the 2D results clearly illustrates the importance of convergent subsurface flow (e.g. greater pore‐water pressures in the hollow of the catchment for the 3D scenario). A simple infinite‐slope model, driven by subsurface pore‐water pressures generated from the 3D and 2D hydrologic‐response simulations, was employed to estimate slope stability along the long‐profile of the C3 hollow axis. As expected, the likelihood of slope failure is underestimated for the lower pore pressures from the 2D hydrologic‐response simulation compared, in a relative sense, to the higher pore pressures from the 3D hydrologic response simulation. The effort reported herein provides a firm quantitative foundation for generalizing the effects that forest roads can have on near‐surface hydrologic response and slope stability at the catchment scale. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The radio frequency dielectric properties of the stratified UG1–UG2 geological unit in the Bushveld Complex

A new measurement technique enables the complex dielectric properties of the geological strata comprising the UG1–UG2 (Upper Group 1–Upper Group 2) unit of the Bushveld Complex in South Africa to be determined with unprecedented detail at radio frequencies (RF). Results of non-destructive laboratory measurements of representative diamond drill core samples from the UG1–UG2 unit are presented at 25 MHz. These data establish that the UG1 and UG2 chromitite layers are embedded in rock strata (norite, pyroxenite and anorthosite) which are translucent in the HF spectral band, whereas the chromitite layers themselves exhibit significant velocity contrast, making them good radar reflectors. The data presented here is useful for calibration of the radar system, and for predicting the range and resolution performance of borehole radars operating in both the hanging and footwalls of the economically important platiniferous UG2 reef.     

A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.     

Recharge and Groundwater Flow Within an Intracratonic Basin,Midwestern United States

The conservative nature of chloride (Cl^?) in groundwater and the abundance of geochemical data from various sources (both published and unpublished) provided a means of developing, for the first time, a representation of the hydrogeology of the Illinois Basin on a basin‐wide scale. The creation of Cl^? isocons superimposed on plan view maps of selected formations and on cross sections across the Illinois Basin yielded a conceptual model on a basin‐wide scale of recharge into, groundwater flow within and through the Illinois Basin. The maps and cross sections reveal the infiltration and movement of freshwater into the basin and dilution of brines within various geologic strata occurring at basin margins and along geologic structures. Cross‐formational movement of brines is also seen in the northern part of the basin. The maps and cross sections also show barriers to groundwater movement created by aquitards resulting in areas of apparent isolation/stagnation of concentrated brines within the basin. The distribution of Cl^? within the Illinois Basin suggests that the current chemical composition of groundwater and distribution of brines within the basin is dependent on five parameters: (1) presence of bedrock exposures along basin margins; (2) permeability of geologic strata and their distribution relative to one another; (3) presence or absence of major geologic structures; (4) intersection of major waterways with geologic structures, basin margins, and permeable bedrock exposures; and (5) isolation of brines within the basin due to aquitards, inhomogeneous permeability, and, in the case of the deepest part of the basin, brine density effects.     

The Water Vapour Continuum: Brief History and Recent Developments

The water vapour continuum is characterised by absorption that varies smoothly with wavelength, from the visible to the microwave. It is present within the rotational and vibrational–rotational bands of water vapour, which consist of large numbers of narrow spectral lines, and in the many ‘windows’ between these bands. The continuum absorption in the window regions is of particular importance for the Earth’s radiation budget and for remote-sensing techniques that exploit these windows. Historically, most attention has focused on the 8–12?μm (mid-infrared) atmospheric window, where the continuum is relatively well-characterised, but there have been many fewer measurements within bands and in other window regions. In addition, the causes of the continuum remain a subject of controversy. This paper provides a brief historical overview of the development of understanding of the continuum and then reviews recent developments, with a focus on the near-infrared spectral region. Recent laboratory measurements in near-infrared windows, which reveal absorption typically an order of magnitude stronger than in widely used continuum models, are shown to have important consequences for remote-sensing techniques that use these windows for retrieving cloud properties.     

Velocity of auroral arcs drifting equatorward from the polar cap

The drift velocity of an auroral arc is compared with the component of F-region plasma velocity in the same direction for ten cases where the arc is seen to move steadily equatorward for several minutes without any major change in appearance or orientation. In most cases the two velocities are close, but on two occasions the drift velocity of the arc is much higher than the plasma velocity. From the cases studied it appears that during the growth and recovery phase of the substorm cycle the arc moves with a velocity close to the convection velocity, but during the expansion phase this is not the case.     

Cytochrome P4501A biomarker indication of the timeline of chronic exposure of Barrow's goldeneyes to residual Exxon Valdez oil

We examined hepatic EROD activity, as an indicator of CYP1A induction, in Barrow’s goldeneyes captured in areas oiled during the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill and those from nearby unoiled areas. We found that average EROD activity differed between areas during 2005, although the magnitude of the difference was reduced relative to a previous study from 1996/1997, and we found that areas did not differ by 2009. Similarly, we found that the proportion of individuals captured from oiled areas with elevated EROD activity (?2 times unoiled average) declined from 41% in winter 1996/1997 to 10% in 2005 and 15% in 2009. This work adds to a body of literature describing the timelines over which vertebrates were exposed to residual Exxon Valdez oil and indicates that, for Barrow’s goldeneyes in Prince William Sound, exposure persisted for many years with evidence of substantially reduced exposure by 2 decades after the spill.     

Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example

ABSTRACT

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.     

Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.