Preserving the unpreservable: a lost world rediscovered at Christian Malford, UK

The small village of Christian Malford, Wiltshire (UK) is known to palaeontologists the world over because of the chance discovery of an astonishing fossil bonanza in the mid-nineteenth century. Pits in the Jurassic Oxford Clay yielded thousands of specimens of exquisitely preserved ammonites, fish and crustaceans, but became most famous for squid-like cephalopods and belemnites (collectively termed coleoids) with fossilized soft-parts. The precise location of the find has remained obscure, until now, and a new attempt is underway to understand the ancient environment that triggered this unusual preservation.     

Potential Salinity and Temperature Futures for the Chesapeake Bay Using a Statistical Downscaling Spatial Disaggregation Framework

Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO₂ emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries.     

Recharge and Groundwater Flow Within an Intracratonic Basin,Midwestern United States

The conservative nature of chloride (Cl^?) in groundwater and the abundance of geochemical data from various sources (both published and unpublished) provided a means of developing, for the first time, a representation of the hydrogeology of the Illinois Basin on a basin‐wide scale. The creation of Cl^? isocons superimposed on plan view maps of selected formations and on cross sections across the Illinois Basin yielded a conceptual model on a basin‐wide scale of recharge into, groundwater flow within and through the Illinois Basin. The maps and cross sections reveal the infiltration and movement of freshwater into the basin and dilution of brines within various geologic strata occurring at basin margins and along geologic structures. Cross‐formational movement of brines is also seen in the northern part of the basin. The maps and cross sections also show barriers to groundwater movement created by aquitards resulting in areas of apparent isolation/stagnation of concentrated brines within the basin. The distribution of Cl^? within the Illinois Basin suggests that the current chemical composition of groundwater and distribution of brines within the basin is dependent on five parameters: (1) presence of bedrock exposures along basin margins; (2) permeability of geologic strata and their distribution relative to one another; (3) presence or absence of major geologic structures; (4) intersection of major waterways with geologic structures, basin margins, and permeable bedrock exposures; and (5) isolation of brines within the basin due to aquitards, inhomogeneous permeability, and, in the case of the deepest part of the basin, brine density effects.     

A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.     

Rare earth element geochemistry of potassic lavas from the Birunga and Toro-Ankole regions of Uganda,Africa

Neutron activation determination of La, Ce, Sm, Eu, Tb, Yb, Lu, Ta, Hf, Sc, Co and Th in potassic lavas from the Birunga and Toro-Ankole regions show that the rocks are characterized by high rare earth element (REE) contents (161–754 ppm) and form two groups based upon differing La/Yb ratios. One group is made up of katungite, ugandite and mafurite with La/Yb =146–312, and the other of rocks of the leucitite and phonolitic tephrite series, La/Yb =30–56. The trace element content of the ugandite group is similar to that of kimberlites. The data do not indicate any trends of differentiation or simple relationships between the two groups of rocks, although katungite is unlikely to be parental to rocks of lower La/Yb ratios. It is unlikely that in terms of La/Yb ratios that partial melting of mica-garnet-lherzolite mantle can form katungite because of the very small amounts of partial melting required (0.2%), although the La/Yb ratios of 150–200 (ugandites, mafurites) and 30–60 (leucitites, phonolitic tephrites) can be accounted for by 0.3–1.5% and 1–9% melting respectively, if the REE are then concentrated without further La and Yb fractionation. Partial melting of mantle which has been metasomatized by alkaline earths and REE bearing fluids or mixing of carbonatite and nephelenite are also compatable with the observed geochemistry of the lavas. It is considered that gas transfer processes which selectively enrich the light REE may have obscured REE evidence pertaining to early partial melting and/or differentiation processes and therefore that REE geochemistry is of little use in determining the petrogenetic processes involved in the formation of potassic lavas.     

Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example

ABSTRACT

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.