Using micro-catchment experiments for multi-local scale modelling of nature-based solutions

The Q-natural flood management project has co-developed with the Environment Agency 18 monitored micro-catchments (~1 km²) in Cumbria, UK installing calibrated flumes aimed at quantifying the potential shift in observed flows resulting from a range of nature-based-solutions installed by local organizations. The small-scale reduces the influence of variability characterizing larger catchments that would otherwise mask any such shifts, which we attempt to relate to a shift in model parameters. This paper demonstrates an approach to applying donor-parameter-shifts obtained from modelling two of the paired micro-catchments to a much larger scale, in order to understand the potential for improved distributed modelling of nature-based solutions in the form of additional tree-planting. The models include a rainfall-runoff model, Dynamic Topmodel, and a 2D hydrodynamic model, JFlow, permitting analysis of changes in hillslope processes and channel hydrodynamics resulting from a range of distributed measures designed to emulate natural hydrological processes that evaporate, store or infiltrate flows. We report on attempts to detect shift in hydrological response using one of the paired-micro-catchment moorland versus forestry sites in Lorton using Dynamic Topmodel. A donor-parameter-shift approach is used in a hypothetical experiment to represent new woodland in a much larger catchment, although testing all combinations of spatial planting strategies, responses to multiple-extremes, failure-modes and changes to synchronization becomes intractable to support good decision making. We argue that the problem can be re-framed to use donor-parameter-shifts at multi-local-scale catchments above communities known to be at risk, commensurate with most of the evidence of NbS impacts being effective at the small scale (ca. 10 km²). This might lead to more effective modelling to help catchment managers prioritize those communities-at-risk where there is more evidence that NbS might be effective.     

Turbidity and suspended sediment dynamics in small catchments in the Nepal Middle Hills

The Himalayan environment has, until recently, been perceived to be in a critical state of environmental decline, resulting from rapid population growth and associated land‐use change. Recent research, however, has emphasized the difficulty of developing an objective appraisal of the state of the environment in a region where empirical data are scarce and unstructured and where an understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of natural environmental processes remains highly uncertain. This paper presents results from an intensive three‐year project designed to help address the regional empirical deficit, establish detailed baseline environmental data and to gain an insight into storm period and seasonal suspended sediment dynamics. The instrumentation, calibration and analysis of high‐frequency infrared turbidimetric records from a number of small subcatchments in the Nepal Middle Hills are reported. Storm period and seasonal variation in turbidity and suspended sediment are examined and hysteresis patterns explored and explained. A variety of methods to estimate seasonal suspended sediment yield in a mixed land‐use catchment are examined, and found to vary by up to a factor of five. Despite the inherent uncertainty, all estimates of catchment sediment yield are found to be high with respect to erosion plot studies from the local area, and this suggests the importance of riparian and channel erosion as major sediment sources, a finding consistent with other regional studies. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Generation of complete theoretical seismograms for SH—

Summary. We report the initial results of our attempts to obtain theoretical seismograms for direct comparison with the experimental time series obtained with the long-period instruments of the WWSSN. The entire theoretical seismogram, including both body waves and surface waves, can be generated for a spherical, anelastic earth by simple inverse Fourier transformation of the sum of the propagating fundamental and higher-mode surface waves. The key to success in reproducing the WWSSN records involves the number of modes, and the minimum period used in these computations; here we use eight modes and a minimum period of 2 s. Efficient computational algorithms make it possible to handle up to 2000 frequency points for each mode; approximately 200 layers are used to model the radial heterogeneity of the earth; attenuation is treated exactly. Examples are given of the SH theoretical seismograms resulting from dislocation sources buried at various depths in the Earth.     

The inclusion of differentially assessed lands in urban growth model calibration: a comparison of two approaches using SLEUTH

This research sought to understand the role that differentially assessed lands (lands in the United States given tax breaks in return for their guarantee to remain in agriculture) play in influencing urban growth. Our method was to calibrate the SLEUTH urban growth model under two different conditions. The first used an excluded layer that ignored such lands, effectively rendering them available for development. The second treated those lands as totally excluded from development. Our hypothesis was that excluding those lands would yield better metrics of fit with past data. Our results validate our hypothesis since two different metrics that evaluate goodness of fit both yielded higher values when differentially assessed lands are treated as excluded. This suggests that, at least in our study area, differential assessment, which protects farm and ranch lands for tenuous periods of time, has indeed allowed farmland to resist urban development. Including differentially assessed lands also yielded very different calibrated coefficients of growth as the model tried to account for the same growth patterns over two very different excluded areas. Excluded layer design can greatly affect model behavior. Since differentially assessed lands are quite common through the United States and are often ignored in urban growth modeling, the findings of this research can assist other urban growth modelers in designing excluded layers that result in more accurate model calibration and thus forecasting.     

On the modelling of sand bedforms using the semivariogram

This study shows the usefulness of the semivariogram for modelling sand ripples created by water flows of varied flow intensity. A combination of two mathematical functions is fitted to each sample semivariogram, that is an exponential (or stochastic) component and a periodic component. The parameters of each of these components have direct physical meaning. A non-dimensional ratio combining the two parameters of the exponential model is interpreted as a regularity index (which increases with the degree of regularity of bedform arrangement). This regularity index is inversely related to the Froude number of the flow. The non-dimensional wavelength, estimated from the dominant periodic function, is also inversely and closely related to the Froude number. The wave height, accurately estimated from properties of the two fitted components, is a direct function of flow velocity and is also proportional to the standard deviation of bed elevations. The bedform shape introduces a considerable discrepancy between the generally assumed normal frequency distribution and the empirical distributions of bed height. The series of bed elevations are generally characterized by a mixture of normal distributions having the same variance but different means. The calculation of a covariance assuming a constant and single mean (as in spectral analysis) can therefore be misleading and the problem may be avoided by using the semivariogram.