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151.
The comparison of pollen diagrams and their inferred vegetational histories are an important component of palaeoecological research. Radiocarbon-dated pollen profiles from three cores taken from two adjacent mires located in northern Cumbria, Bolton Fell Moss and Walton Moss, have been used to reconstruct the Late Holocene vegetation history between the Bronze Age and the present day. The profiles have been interpreted in the light of available archaeological and historical records and, although the pollen records are broadly similar, there are some notable differences between them, particularly during Iron Age and medieval times. Dissimilarities between the diagrams are explored numerically, and the statistical and palynological results are discussed in relation to pollen representativity. The results suggest that it may be advantageous to construct more than one pollen diagram from a mire, or even adjacent mires, as extra-local pollen may be a more important part of the pollen rain than previously envisaged. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
152.
Replication of results is a basic tenet of science, but in palaeoecology this is very time-consuming and the ‘signal’ is subject to ‘noise’. The derivation of proxy-climate signals from ombrotrophic peat was carried out originally using samples from open peat faces where the stratigraphic relationships could be easily observed. Now that such sections are rare and often degraded there is a need to demonstrate that data can be replicated from core profiles. Ten short cores taken from two adjacent bogs have been analysed for macrofossils and show a coherent series of changes, which are also similar to previous profiles from the same sites. It is concluded that variation between profiles is slight and less than observations of present vegetation mosaics might suggest. Recommendations for a standard approach to fieldwork on raised bogs that emphasises the utility of subfossil pool layers are proposed and the need for a secure chronology is stressed. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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155.
Keith M. Clayton 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1997,22(8):721-731
Developments in dating techniques applicable to the late Tertiary and Quaternary are giving us the ability to date past land surfaces. Where reasonable assumptions about the nature of such past surfaces and their partial preservation may be made, they can be reconstructed. This permits the contouring and measurement of the subsequent dissection, allowing not only calculation of the average rate of erosion over the elapsed time, but also information on the pattern of incision. Two examples where this has been attempted are present; both are dissected till surfaces in eastern England, one of Anglian and the other of Devensian age. The approach quantifies the disparity between the incision of valleys and the general denudational lowering of the surface which characterizes many landscapes. The technique is not only of academic interest, but potentially forms a useful line of approach to the assessment of the safety of the burying toxic wastes. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
156.
ABSTRACTCharacterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work. 相似文献
157.
Changes in monthly baseflow across the U.S. Midwest 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Characterizing streamflow changes in the agricultural U.S. Midwest is critical for effective planning and management of water resources throughout the region. The objective of this study is to determine if and how baseflow has responded to land alteration and climate changes across the study area during the 50‐year study period by exploring hydrologic variations based on long‐term stream gage data. This study evaluates monthly contributions to annual baseflow along with possible trends over the 1966–2016 period for 458 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages within 12 different Midwestern states. It also examines the influence of climate and land use factors on the observed baseflow trends. Monthly contribution breakdowns demonstrate how the majority of baseflow is discharged into streams during the spring months (March, April, and May) and is overall more substantial throughout the spring (especially in April) and summer (June, July, and August). Baseflow has not remained constant over the study period, and the results of the trend detection from the Mann–Kendall test reveal that baseflows have increased and are the strongest from May to September. This analysis is confirmed by quantile regression, which suggests that for most of the year, the largest changes are detected in the central part of the distribution. Although increasing baseflow trends are widespread throughout the region, decreasing trends are few and limited to Kansas and Nebraska. Further analysis reveals that baseflow changes are being driven by both climate and land use change across the region. Increasing trends in baseflow are linked to increases in precipitation throughout the year and are most prominent during May and June. Changes in agricultural intensity (in terms of harvested corn and soybean acreage) are linked to increasing trends in the central and western Midwest, whereas increasing temperatures may lead to decreasing baseflow trends in spring and summer in northern Wisconsin, Kansas, and Nebraska. 相似文献
158.
Simulation of scree‐slope dynamics: investigating the distribution of debris avalanche events in an idealized two‐dimensional model
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We present a two‐dimensional model of the development of scree slopes using the discrete‐element method. We concentrate on the dynamics of the accumulating debris at the cliff foot rather than on the failure modes of the cliff‐face or shape of the underlying rock surface. The evolution of this unconsolidated material is intermittent and systematically changing over time, with an early high disturbance regime, dominated by a characteristic event size (where 65% of particles in the debris are in motion to some extent), replaced at later times by many shallow slides interspersed with infrequent large events that involve motion through almost the full scree depth. These large slides lead to a stratigraphy in which the layers of material are stretched almost horizontal near the base of the slope. The scree surface thus shows a gradient in age with most recent rock‐fall close to the cliff and the oldest rock‐fall debris outcropping at the foot. The final surface slope tends to show little curvature, and the final mean slope is well correlated with the angle of internal friction of the particles, although the change is very small over a wide range of friction angles [final slope (in degrees relative to horizontal) ~ 0.043 × internal friction angle + 17.49, with a correlation coefficient of 0.89, p‐value 0.0001]. Some weak size‐segregation of the debris is found, but this seems to have little to do with individual particles bounding down the slope. The shape of the rock core agrees largely with the analytic forms given by Fisher–Lehmann and Bakker–Le Heux expressions, but the original simple Fisher quadratic can give the best fit. Overall the evolution shows a remarkable insensitivity to the model parameters, suggesting that the controls on dry scree‐slope evolution are primarily geometric in character. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
159.
Quantifying the rate and depth dependence of bioturbation based on optically‐stimulated luminescence (OSL) dates and meteoric 10Be
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Michelle O. Johnson Simon M. Mudd Brad Pillans Nigel A. Spooner L. Keith Fifield Mike J. Kirkby Manuel Gloor 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(9):1188-1196
Both the rate and the vertical distribution of soil disturbance modify soil properties such as porosity, particle size, chemical composition and age structure; all of which play an important role in a soil's biogeochemical functioning. Whereas rates of mixing have been previously quantified, the nature of bioturbation's depth dependence remains poorly constrained. Here we constrain, for the first time, the relationship between mixing rate and depth in a bioturbated soil in northeast Queensland, Australia using a novel method combining OSL (optically‐stimulated luminescence) ages and meteoric beryllium‐10 (10Be) inventories. We find that the best fit mixing rate decreases non‐linearly with increasing soil depth in this soil and the characteristic length scale of 0.28 m over which the mixing coefficient decays is comparable to reported rooting depth coefficients. In addition we show that estimates of surface mixing rates from OSL data are highly dependent on erosion rate and that erosion rate must be constrained if accurate mixing rates are to be quantified. We calculate surface diffusion‐like mixing coefficients of 1.8 × 10?4 and 2.1 × 10?4 m2 yr?1 for the studied soil for two different estimates of soil erosion. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 相似文献
160.
Aftershock sequence simulations using synthetic earthquakes and rate-state seismicity formulation
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Heming Xu Yifeng Cui James H. Dieterich Keith Richards-Dinger Efecan Poyraz Dong Ju Choi 《地震科学(英文版)》2014,27(4):401-410
We use an efficient earthquake simulator that incorporates rate-state constitutive properties and uses boundary element method to discretize the fault surfaces, to generate the synthetic earthquakes in the fault system. Rate-and-state seismicity equation is subsequently employed to calculate the seismicity rate in a region of interest using the Coulomb stress transfer from the main shocks in the fault system. The Coulomb stress transfer is obtained by resolving the induced stresses due to the fault patch slips onto the optimal-oriented fault planes. The example results show that immediately after a main shock the aftershocks are concentrated in the vicinity of the rupture area due to positive stress transfers and then disperse away into the surrounding region toward the background rate distribution. The number of aftershocks near the rupture region is found to decay with time as Omori aftershock decay law predicts. The example results demonstrate that the rate-and-state fault system earthquake simulator and the seismicity equations based on the rate-state friction nucleation of earthquake are well posited to characterize the aftershock distribution in regional assessments of earthquake probabilities. 相似文献