Implications of model uncertainty for the mapping of hillslope‐scale soil erosion predictions

An integrated modelling approach (MIRSED) which utilizes the process‐based soil erosion model WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) is presented for the assessment of hillslope‐scale soil erosion at five sites throughout England and Wales. The methodology draws upon previous uncertainty analysis of the WEPP hillslope soil erosion model by the authors to qualify model results within an uncertainty framework. A method for incorporating model uncertainty from a range of sources is discussed as a first step towards using and learning from results produced through the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) technique. Results are presented and compared to available observed data, which illustrate that levels of uncertainty are significant and must be taken into account if a meaningful understanding of output from models such as WEPP is to be achieved. Furthermore, the collection of quality, observed data is underlined for two reasons: as an essential tool in the development of soil erosion modelling and also to allow further constraint of model uncertainty. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

First‐order exchange coefficient coupling for simulating surface water–groundwater interactions: parameter sensitivity and consistency with a physics‐based approach

Distributed hydrologic models capable of simulating fully‐coupled surface water and groundwater flow are increasingly used to examine problems in the hydrologic sciences. Several techniques are currently available to couple the surface and subsurface; the two most frequently employed approaches are first‐order exchange coefficients (a.k.a., the surface conductance method) and enforced continuity of pressure and flux at the surface‐subsurface boundary condition. The effort reported here examines the parameter sensitivity of simulated hydrologic response for the first‐order exchange coefficients at a well‐characterized field site using the fully coupled Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM). This investigation demonstrates that the first‐order exchange coefficients can be selected such that the simulated hydrologic response is insensitive to the parameter choice, while simulation time is considerably reduced. Alternatively, the ability to choose a first‐order exchange coefficient that intentionally decouples the surface and subsurface facilitates concept‐development simulations to examine real‐world situations where the surface‐subsurface exchange is impaired. While the parameters comprising the first‐order exchange coefficient cannot be directly estimated or measured, the insensitivity of the simulated flow system to these parameters (when chosen appropriately) combined with the ability to mimic actual physical processes suggests that the first‐order exchange coefficient approach can be consistent with a physics‐based framework. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Recharge and Groundwater Flow Within an Intracratonic Basin,Midwestern United States

The conservative nature of chloride (Cl^?) in groundwater and the abundance of geochemical data from various sources (both published and unpublished) provided a means of developing, for the first time, a representation of the hydrogeology of the Illinois Basin on a basin‐wide scale. The creation of Cl^? isocons superimposed on plan view maps of selected formations and on cross sections across the Illinois Basin yielded a conceptual model on a basin‐wide scale of recharge into, groundwater flow within and through the Illinois Basin. The maps and cross sections reveal the infiltration and movement of freshwater into the basin and dilution of brines within various geologic strata occurring at basin margins and along geologic structures. Cross‐formational movement of brines is also seen in the northern part of the basin. The maps and cross sections also show barriers to groundwater movement created by aquitards resulting in areas of apparent isolation/stagnation of concentrated brines within the basin. The distribution of Cl^? within the Illinois Basin suggests that the current chemical composition of groundwater and distribution of brines within the basin is dependent on five parameters: (1) presence of bedrock exposures along basin margins; (2) permeability of geologic strata and their distribution relative to one another; (3) presence or absence of major geologic structures; (4) intersection of major waterways with geologic structures, basin margins, and permeable bedrock exposures; and (5) isolation of brines within the basin due to aquitards, inhomogeneous permeability, and, in the case of the deepest part of the basin, brine density effects.     

Stress orientation to 5 km depth in the basement below Basel (Switzerland) from borehole failure analysis

A vertical profile of maximum horizontal principal stress, SHmax, orientation to 5 km depth was obtained beneath the Swiss city of Basel from observations of wellbore failure derived from ultrasonic televiewer images obtained in two 1 km distant near-vertical boreholes: a 2755 m exploration well (OT2) imaged from 2550 m to 2753 m across the granitic basement-sediment interface at 2649 m; and a 5 km deep borehole (BS1) imaged entirely within the granite from 2569 m to 4992 m. Stress-related wellbore failure in the form of breakouts or drilling-induced tension fractures (DITFs) occurs throughout the depth range of the logs with breakouts predominant. Within the granite, DITFs are intermittently present, and breakouts more or less continuously present over all but the uppermost 100 m where they are sparse. The mean SHmax orientations from DITFs is 151 ± 13° whereas breakouts yield 143 ± 14°, the combined value weighted for frequency of occurrence being N144°E ± 14°. No marked depth dependence in mean SHmax orientation averaged over several hundred meters depth intervals is evident. This mean SHmax orientation for the granite is consistent with the results of the inversion of populations of focal mechanism solutions of earthquakes occurring between depths of 10–15 km within regions immediately to the north and south of Basel, and with the T-axis of events occurring within the reservoir (Deichmann and Ernst, this volume). DITFs and breakouts identified in OT2 above and below the sediment-basement interface suggest that a change in SHmax orientation to N115°E ± 12° within the Rotliegendes sandstone occurs near its interface with the basement. The origin of the 20–30° change is uncertain, as is its lateral extent. The logs do not extend higher than 80 m above the interface, and so the data do not define whether a further change in stress orientation occurs at the evaporites. Near-surface measurements taken within 50 km of Basel suggest a mean orientation of N–S, albeit with large variability, as do the orientation of hydrofractures at depths up to 850 m within and above the evaporite layers and an active salt diapir, also within 50 km of Basel. Thus, the available evidence supports the notion that the orientation of SHmax above the evaporites is on average more N–S oriented and thus differs from the NW–SE inferred for the basement from the BS1/OS2 wellbore failure data and the earthquake data. Changes in stress orientation with depth can have significant practical consequences for the development of an EGS reservoir, and serve to emphasise the importance of obtaining estimates from within the target rock mass.     

Revisiting the death of geography in the era of Big Data: the friction of distance in cyberspace and real space

Many scholars have argued that the importance of geographic proximity in human interactions has been diminished by the use of the Internet, while others disagree with this argument. Studies have noted the distance decay effect in both cyberspace and real space, showing that interactions occur with an inverse relationship between the number of interactions and the distance between the locations of the interactors. However, these studies rarely provide strong evidence to show the influence of distance on interactions in cyberspace, nor do they quantify the differences in the amount of friction of distance between cyberspace and real space. To fill this gap, this study used massive amounts of social media data (Twitter) to compare the influence of distance decay on human interactions between cyberspace and real space in a quantitative manner. To estimate the distance decay effect in both cyberspace and real space, the distance decay function of interactions in each space was modeled. Estimating the distance decay in cyberspace in this study can help predict the degree of information flow across space through social media. Measuring how far ideas can be diffused through social media is useful for users of location-based services, policy advocates, public health officials, and political campaigners.