Short‐term flood inundation prediction using hydrologic‐hydraulic models forced with downscaled rainfall from global NWP

A short‐term flood inundation prediction model has been formulated based on the combination of the super‐tank model, forced with downscaled rainfall from a global numerical weather prediction model, and a one‐dimensional (1D) hydraulic model. Different statistical methods for downscaled rainfall have been explored, taking into account the availability of historical data. It has been found that the full implementation of a statistical downscaling model considering physically‐based corrections to the numerical weather prediction model output for rainfall prediction performs better compared with an altitudinal correction method. The integration of the super‐tank model into the 1D hydraulic model demonstrates a minimal requirement for the calibration of rainfall–runoff and flood propagation models. Updating the model with antecedent rainfall and regular forecast renewal has enhanced the model's capabilities as a result of the data assimilation processes of the runoff and numerical weather prediction models. The results show that the predicted water levels demonstrate acceptable agreement with those measured by stream gauges and comparable to those reproduced using the actual rainfall. Moreover, the predicted flood inundation depth and extent exhibit reasonably similar tendencies to those observed in the field. However, large uncertainties are observed in the prediction results in lower, flat portions of the river basin where the hydraulic conditions are not properly analysed by the 1D flood propagation model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Obliquity variations of terrestrial planets in habitable zones

We have investigated obliquity variations of possible terrestrial planets in habitable zones (HZs) perturbed by a giant planet(s) in extrasolar planetary systems. All the extrasolar planets so far discovered are inferred to be jovian-type gas giants. However, terrestrial planets could also exist in extrasolar planetary systems. In order for life, in particular for land-based life, to evolve and survive on a possible terrestrial planet in an HZ, small obliquity variations of the planet may be required in addition to its orbital stability, because large obliquity variations would cause significant climate change. It is known that large obliquity variations are caused by spin-orbit resonances where the precession frequency of the planet's spin nearly coincides with one of the precession frequencies of the ascending node of the planet's orbit. Using analytical expressions, we evaluated the obliquity variations of terrestrial planets with prograde spins in HZs. We found that the obliquity of terrestrial planets suffers large variations when the giant planet's orbit is separated by several Hill radii from an edge of the HZ, in which the orbits of the terrestrial planets in the HZ are marginally stable. Applying these results to the known extrasolar planetary systems, we found that about half of these systems can have terrestrial planets with small obliquity variations (smaller than 10°) over their entire HZs. However, the systems with both small obliquity variations and stable orbits in their HZs are only 1/5 of known systems. Most such systems are comprised of short-period giant planets. If additional planets are found in the known planetary systems, they generally tend to enhance the obliquity variations. On the other hand, if a large/close satellite exists, it significantly enhances the precession rate of the spin axis of a terrestrial planet and is likely to reduce the obliquity variations of the planet. Moreover, if a terrestrial planet is in a retrograde spin state, the spin-orbit resonance does not occur. Retrograde spin, or a large/close satellite might be essential for land-based life to survive on a terrestrial planet in an HZ.     

The use of remotely sensed data and ground survey tools to assess damage and monitor early recovery following the 12.5.2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China

The M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12th, 2008 was the most destructive in China since 1976. The event caused huge damage and loss of life and exposed weaknesses both in the formulation and implementation of the regulations governing building in the affected provinces. Following the earthquake a massive relief and recovery operation was mounted by the Chinese government. The authors took part in field studies in the affected area which took place 5 and 11?months after the event, at which time recovery operations were well-advanced. The aims of the study were to assess the effects caused by the earthquake to the built environment and society, to collect information on the ongoing recovery efforts and future plans, and to demonstrate the use of tools that allow the collection of spatially referenced damage and recovery data. Based on available satellite imagery supplemented by ground observation, geodatabases were constructed containing information on damage and recovery in several parts of the affected area. The paper gives an overview of the recovery process, describes the methods used to construct these geodatabases, and offers some analysis of the data obtained. It is argued that such databases have great potential for the management of post-disaster recovery and for creating a permanent record of the recovery process.     

Interpretation of the GRACE-derived mass trend in Enderby Land, Antarctica

Monthly gravity solutions of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) reveal three areas in Antarctica with striking interannual mass trends. The positive mass trend in Enderby Land, East Antarctica, is poorly understood because of uncertainties in the surface ice-sheet mass balance, post-glacial rebound (PGR), and processing of GRACE data. In this study, we compare the GRACE mass trends with values estimated from in situ snow-stake measurements, and Ice Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) data. The mass trends estimated from ICESat data show a strong correlation with GRACE mass trends. In contrast, the snow-stake data show discrepancies with temporal variations in GRACE mass, especially in 2006. The discrepancies are probably associated with basal ice-sheet outflow, which is difficult to observe using snow stakes. We conclude that the bulk of the GRACE mass trend can be explained by snow accumulation and basal ice-sheet outflow.     

Impacts of elevated CO2 on particulate and dissolved organic matter production: microcosm experiments using iron-deficient plankton communities in open subarctic waters

Response of phytoplankton to increasing CO₂ in seawater in terms of physiology and ecology is key to predicting changes in marine ecosystems. However, responses of natural plankton communities especially in the open ocean to higher CO₂ levels have not been fully examined. We conducted CO₂ manipulation experiments in the Bering Sea and the central subarctic Pacific, known as high nutrient and low chlorophyll regions, in summer 2007 to investigate the response of organic matter production in iron-deficient plankton communities to CO₂ increases. During the 14-day incubations of surface waters with natural plankton assemblages in microcosms under multiple pCO₂ levels, the dynamics of particulate organic carbon (POC) and nitrogen (PN), and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and phosphorus (DOP) were examined with the plankton community compositions. In the Bering site, net production of POC, PN, and DOP relative to net chlorophyll-a production decreased with increasing pCO₂. While net produced POC:PN did not show any CO₂-related variations, net produced DOC:DOP increased with increasing pCO₂. On the other hand, no apparent trends for these parameters were observed in the Pacific site. The contrasting results observed were probably due to the different plankton community compositions between the two sites, with plankton biomass dominated by large-sized diatoms in the Bering Sea versus ultra-eukaryotes in the Pacific Ocean. We conclude that the quantity and quality of the production of particulate and dissolved organic matter may be altered under future elevated CO₂ environments in some iron-deficient ecosystems, while the impacts may be negligible in some systems.     

Fractal analysis of the fracture strength of lava dome material based on the grain size distribution of block-and-ash flow deposits at Unzen Volcano, Japan

A fractal theory of rock fragmentation is applied to block-and-ash flow deposits from the Fugendake dome, Unzen Volcano, Kyushu, Japan, in order to analyze the material strength and the energy required for size reduction of the source lava dome. Two fractal dimensions h and D_s, which are mutually interchangeable, represent the relative strength and energy for particles reduced to a given size. They can be theoretically estimated from the power relations of a reference grain size to the cumulative mass and number of fragments smaller than that size. The Unzen–Fugendake block-and-ash flow deposits have been further modified by size sorting and secondary fragmentation that occurred during flowage, so that the h value decreases (or D_s value increases) with increasing distance from the source. Coarse, reversely graded deposits are, however, found to retain the original size population relatively well. The D_s values estimated from deposits of this type are compatible with those previously reported from decompression–fragmentation experiments conducted on the same dome material. The employed fractal approach could thus give insights into the potential mode of dome collapse that generates block-and-ash flows.     

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2016.06.013

The Archean continental crusts account for ca.20% of the present volume,but the thermal history of the Earths' mantle suggests much more continental crusts were formed in the early Archean.Because the Archean continental crust underwent severe metamorphism,it is important to avoid influence by the later thermal events.We carried out a comprehensive geochronological work of Cathodoluminescence(CL) observation and U-Pb dating of zircons from orthogneisses and supracrustal rocks over the Saglek Block to obtain their protolith ages.The zircons were classified into three domains of core,mantle and rims,and the cores were further classified into three groups of inherited,altered and zoned cores based on the zonation on the CL images.We estimated the protolith ages from Pb-Pb ages of the zoned-cores of zircons with low U contents.We made a detailed sketch of a small outcrop in St.John's Harbour South(SJHS) area,and classified the orthogneisses and mafic enclaves into seven generations based on the geologic occurrence.The first and second generations comprise mafic rocks and lack magmatic zircons.We conducted CL imaging and U-Pb dating of zircons from the third,sixth and seventh generation of the orthogneisses to estimate the protolith ages at 3902 L 25,3892 ± 33 and 3897 ± 33 Ma for each,supporting the presence of the over 3.9 Ca Iqaluk Gneiss.The geological occurrence that the mafic rocks occur as enclaves within the 3.9 Ga Iqaluk Gneiss indicates that they are the oldest supracrustal rocks in the world.Our geochronological and geological studies show the Uivak Gneiss is quite varied in lithology and age from 3.6 to 3.9 Ga,and tentatively classified into six groups based on their ages.The oldest Uivak Gneiss components including the Iqaluk Gneiss are present around the SJHS area,and the orthogneisses become young as it is away.The lines of evidence of overprinting of younger granitoid on older granitoid in small outcrops and geological-map scale as well as presence of inherited zircons even in the oldest suite suggests that crustal reworking played an important role on erasing the ancient crusts.     

The ultra-low-frequency magnetic disturbances associated with earthquakes

The ultra-low-frequency (ULF) electromagnetic emission is recently recognized as one of the most promising candidates for short-term earthquake (EQ) prediction. This paper reviews previous convincing evidence on the presence of ULF emissions before three major EQs. Then, we present further statistical study on the ULF occurrence, our networks of ULF monitoring in different spatial scales in Japan and finally we present several signal processings to identify the seismogenic emissions by showing latest results for recent large EQs.