Observed correlations between aftershock spatial distribution and earthquake fault lengths

We observe the spatial distributions of the magnitude of aftershocks following the six earthquakes of focal depth shallower than 20 km with magnitude more than 5.0 from 1983 to 1987 in Japan. The upper limit of the aftershock magnitude is examined as a function of the distance from mainshock hypocentre. The observed spatial distributions of the upper limit are bimodal, with a tendency of the upper limit to decrease as the distance from mainshock hypocentre increases. Moreover, we observe the correlations between the aftershock spatial distribution and earthquake fault length. We focus on the largest aftershocks in each of two aftershock sequences constituting the bimodal distribution. The distances of the two largest aftershocks from the mainshock hypocentre are equal to the fault lengths of shallow earthquakes in Japan and to the maximum earthquake fault lengths.     

A simulation study of microstructure evolution inside the shear band in biaxial compression test

We study the development of microstructure inside the shear band in granular media consisting of elliptical‐shaped particles. Plane strain biaxial compression test was simulated using two‐dimensional distinct element method. The generation of large voids and concentration of excessive particle rotation inside a shear band are found in a quite similar manner to those observed in natural soils. Evolution of the microstructure inside and outside the shear band is studied. The magnitude and direction of particle rotation inside the shear band is influenced by orientation of long axes of elliptical particles. Because of such particle rotations inside the shear band, the preferred alignment of particles becomes horizontal in the residual state, which results in a more anisotropic contact normal distribution oriented along the major principal stress axis. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of land-use changes on snow in a forested region with heavy snowfall in Hokkaido,Japan

Abstract

We simulated snow processes in a forested region with heavy snowfall in Japan, and evaluated both the regional-scale snow distribution and the potential impact of land-use changes on the snow cover and water balances over the entire domain. SnowModel reproduced the snow processes at open and forested sites, which were confirmed by snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements at two intensive observation sites and snow depth measurements at the Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System sites. SnowModel also reproduced the observed snow distribution (from the MODIS snow cover data) over the simulation domain during thaw. The observed SWE was less at the forested site than at the open site. The SnowModel simulations showed that this difference was caused mainly by differences in sublimation. The type of land use changed the maximum SWE, onset and duration of snowmelt, and the daily snowmelt rate due to canopy snow interception.

Citation Suzuki, K., Kodama, Y., Nakai, T., Liston, G. E., Yamamoto, K., Ohata, T., Ishii, Y., Sumida, A., Hara, T. & Ohta, T. (2011) Impact of land-use changes in a forested region with heavy snowfall in Hokkaido, Japan. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(3), 443–467.     

Flood vulnerability assessment of residential buildings by explicit damage process modelling

Natural Hazards - The present paper introduces a vulnerability modelling approach for residential buildings in flood. The modelling approach explicitly considers relevant damage processes, i.e....     

Hydrochemical and isotopic evidence of recharge,apparent age,and flow direction of groundwater in Mayo Tsanaga River Basin,Cameroon: bearings on contamination

Unplanned exploitation of groundwater constitutes emerging water-related threats to MayoTsanaga River Basin. Shallow groundwater from crystalline and detrital sediment aquifers, together with rain, dams, springs, and rivers were chemically and isotopically investigated to appraise its evolution, recharge source and mechanisms, flow direction, and age which were used to evaluate the groundwater susceptibility to contamination and the basin’s stage of salinization. The groundwater which is Ca–Na–HCO₃ type is a chemically evolved equivalent of surface waters and rain water with Ca–Mg–Cl–SO₄ chemistry. The monsoon rain recharged the groundwater preferentially at an average rate of 74 mm/year, while surface waters recharge upon evaporation. Altitude effect of rain and springs show a similar variation of −0.4‰ for δ¹⁸O/100 m, but the springs which were recharged at 452, 679, and 773 m asl show enrichment of δ¹⁸O through evaporation by 0.8‰ corresponding to 3% of water loss during recharge. The groundwater which shows both local and regional flow regimes gets older towards the basins` margin with coeval enrichment in F⁻ and depletion in NO₃ ⁻. Incidentally, younger groundwaters are susceptible to anthropogenic contamination and older groundwaters are sinks of lithologenic fluoride. The basins salinization is still at an early stage.     

Application of a modified pattern informatics method to forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes in the central Japan

We propose a modification of the Pattern Informatics (PI) method that has been developed for forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes. This forecast is based on analyzing the space–time patterns of past earthquakes to find possible locations where future large earthquakes are expected to occur. A characteristic of our modification is that the effect of errors in the locations of past earthquakes on the output forecast is reduced. We apply the modified and original methods to seismicity in the central part of Japan and compared the forecast performances. We also invoke the Relative Intensity (RI) of seismic activity and randomized catalogs to constitute null hypotheses. We do statistical tests using the Molchan and Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) diagrams and the log-likelihoods and show that the forecast for using the modified PI method is generally better than the competing original-PI forecast and the forecasts from the null hypotheses. Using the bootstrap technique with Monte-Carlo simulations, we further confirm that earthquake sequences simulated based on the modified-PI forecast can be statistically the same as the real earthquake sequence so that the forecast is acceptable. The main and innovative science in this paper is the modification of the PI method and the demonstration of its applicability, showing a considerable promise as an intermediate-term earthquake forecasting tool.     

Nonlinear interaction of the Tsugaru Warm Current and tide in the Tsugaru Strait

The Tsugaru Strait, which connects the Sea of Japan with the Pacific Ocean, is characterized by the eastward Tsugaru Warm Current (TWC) and oscillating tidal currents of similar magnitude. A 15-day current observation was conducted in one of the two narrow channels in the strait, at the northwest tip of the Shimokita Peninsula. The observation revealed that the spectral energy of the semidiurnal current exceeds that of the diurnal current, contrary to the conventional view. The Tsugaru Strait regional model was developed to study the mechanism of this spectral energy reversal (140–141.5° E, 40.4–42.6° N, 500?m grid resolution). At the eastern and western open boundaries, the model was driven by the constant Tsugaru warm current and tidal elevation, which was adjusted by comparing the model with tidal gauge observations within the channel. The relative magnitude of the spectral energies differed from that of the observation when the model was driven by tide only. However, the spectral energy levels were reversed when the model was driven by both tide and current. The nonlinear interaction of periodic tidal currents and the steady TWC was explained by the vorticity equation, which describes the production and advection of residual currents from tidal currents. According to the model results, flow separation and advection of vorticity by the TWC was the most prominent factor in this phenomenon. Because of the strong nonlinearities, flow separation around the headland occurred during the tidal period with dominant current magnitude and furnished the main difference between the diurnal and semidiurnal interactions. These phenomena were enhanced by the complex topography, and demonstrate the importance of scale interaction, especially when developing high-resolution regional models.     

Symmetropy of earthquake patterns: asymmetry and rotation in a disordered seismic source

We demonstrate that the idea of symmetropy can be used for quantification of earthquake patterns. The symmetropy can be considered as a measure of asymmetry. A pattern is richer in asymmetry when the symmetropy is smaller. The specific results of its applications are obtained as follows. In a discrete model of a seismic source with self-organized criticality, the spatial patterns of earthquakes during critical states and sub-critical states are distinguished by the behaviour of the symmetropy: sub-critical patterns show that the symmetropy is approximately a constant but this has various values during critical states. The critical patterns show asymmetric property without any asymmetric force from the outside and without asymmetric intracellular rule. We show that the emergence of asymmetric patterns is a generic feature of dynamic ruptures in our model. Such a generic asymmetry results from the model which is an inherently discrete system consisting of finite-sized cells. These cells may represent geometrical disordered fault zones. We further discuss rotational motions that generate seismic rotational waves. In micromorphic continuum theory, such rotations are attributed to dynamic ruptures in disordered systems. We note that the concept of disorder in this theory is expressed by a set of finite-sized microstructures and is consistent with the concept of disorder modelled in the present study. Thus, we suggest that the spatially asymmetric patterns of earthquakes might be related to the rotational motions, because both come from dynamic ruptures in a discrete fault zone without a well-defined continuum limit.     

An introduction to combined Fourier–wavelet transform and its application to convectively coupled equatorial waves

Convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) are major sources of tropical day-to-day variability. The majority of CCEWs-related studies for the past decade or so have based their analyses, in one form or another, on the Fourier-based space–time spectral analysis method developed by Wheeler and Kiladis (WK). Like other atmospheric and oceanic phenomena, however, CCEWs exhibit pronounced nonstationarity, which the conventional Fourier-based method has difficulty elucidating. The purpose of this study is to introduce an analysis method that is able to describe the time-varying spectral features of CCEWs. The method is based on a transform, referred to as the combined Fourier–wavelet transform (CFWT), defined as a combination of the Fourier transform in space (longitude) and wavelet transform in time, providing an instantaneous space–time spectrum at any given time. The elaboration made on how to display the CFWT spectrum in a manner analogous to the conventional method (i.e., as a function of zonal wavenumber and frequency) and how to estimate the background noise spectrum renders the method more practically feasible. As a practical example, this study analyzes 3-hourly cloud archive user service (CLAUS) cloudiness data for 23 years. The CFWT and WK methods exhibit a remarkable level of agreement in the distributions of climatological-mean space–time spectra over a wide range of space–time scales ranging in time from several hours to several tens of days, indicating the instantaneous CFWT spectrum provides a reasonable snapshot. The usefulness of the capability to localize space–time spectra in time is demonstrated through examinations of the annual cycle, interannual variability, and a case study.     

Bimodal representation of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation

The tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) shows distinct variability centers and propagation patterns between boreal winter and summer. To accurately represent the state of the ISO at any particular time of a year, a bimodal ISO index was developed. It consists of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) mode with predominant eastward propagation along the equator and Boreal Summer ISO (BSISO) mode with prominent northward propagation and large variability in off-equatorial monsoon trough regions. The spatial–temporal patterns of the MJO and BSISO modes are identified with the extended empirical orthogonal function analysis of 31?years (1979–2009) OLR data for the December–February and June–August period, respectively. The dominant mode of the ISO at any given time can be judged by the proportions of the OLR anomalies projected onto the two modes. The bimodal ISO index provides objective and quantitative measures on the annual and interannual variations of the predominant ISO modes. It is shown that from December to April the MJO mode dominates while from June to October the BSISO mode dominates. May and November are transitional months when the predominant mode changes from one to the other. It is also shown that the fractional variance reconstructed based on the bimodal index is significantly higher than the counterpart reconstructed based on the Wheeler and Hendon’s index. The bimodal ISO index provides a reliable real time monitoring skill, too. The method and results provide critical information in assessing models’ performance to reproduce the ISO and developing further research on predictability of the ISO and are also useful for a variety of scientific and practical purposes.