Long-term climate response to stabilized and overshoot anthropogenic forcings beyond the twenty-first century

From multi-ensembles of climate simulations using the Community Climate System Model version 3, global climate changes have been investigated focusing on long-term responses to stabilized anthropogenic forcings. In addition to the standard forcing scenarios for the current international assessment, an overshoot scenario, where radiative forcings are decreased from one stabilized level to another, is also considered. The globally-averaged annual surface air temperature increases during the twenty-first century by 2.58 and 1.56°C for increased forcings under two future scenarios denoted by A1B and B1, respectively. These changes continue but at much slower rates in later centuries under forcings stabilized at year 2100. The overshoot scenario provides a different pathway to the lower B1 level by way of the greater A1B level. This scenario results in a surface climate similar to that in the B1 scenario within 100 years after the forcing reaches the B1 level. Contrasting to the surface changes, responses in the ocean are significantly delayed. It is estimated from the linear response theory that temperature changes under stabilized forcings to a final equilibrium state in the A1B (B1) scenario are factors of 0.3–0.4, 0.9, and 17 (0.3, 0.6, and 11) to changes during the twenty-first century, respectively, for three ocean layers of the surface to 100, 100–500, and 500 m to the bottom. Although responses in the lower ocean layers imply a nonlinear behavior, the ocean temperatures in the overshoot and B1 scenarios are likely to converge in their final equilibrium states.     

Development of air conditioning technologies to reduce CO2 emissions in the commercial sector

Background  

Architectural methods that take into account global environmental conservation generally concentrate on mitigating the heat load of buildings. Here, we evaluate the reduction of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions that can be achieved by improving heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) technologies.     

Full-scale structural monitoring using an integrated GPS and accelerometer system

Accurate in situ measurement of the full-scale structural responses, especially tall buildings, under severe loading conditions is an important requirement for validating their design, evaluating their construction as well as facilitating their maintenance. Traditionally such response has been measured using accelerometers. However, it is impossible to measure the static and quasi-static components of motion with acceleration sensors. An integrated system comprising of RTK-GPS and accelerometers has been developed with the objective of assessing full-scale structural responses by exploiting the complementary characteristics of GPS and accelerometer sensors. The data used in this paper were obtained from GPS and accelerometer sensors installed on a 108-m-high steel tower in Tokyo, together with other sensors such as anemometer and strain gauge. The seismic and wind-induced responses of the tower were analyzed using the Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) and compared to results from finite element modeling (FEM). In order to study the system reliability, the correlated signals were extracted by applying a digital filtering technique. Then the filtered data sets were converted to displacement (in the case of accelerometer data) and acceleration (in the case of GPS data) through double integration and double differentiation, respectively, for the purpose of direct comparison and to further fuse data from the two different sensors. The results agree with each other very well, although the static and quasi-static components are missing from the accelerometer-derived results. The redundancy of the monitoring system therefore has been achieved.     

A new derivation of the Kustaanheimo-Stiefel variables

First introducing the parabolic coordinates inR ³, we can derive the Kustaanheimo-Stiefel (KS) variables quite simply and naturally. Through this derivation it becomes clearer where and how the additional dimension is introduced and what the bilinear relation means.Paper presented at the 1981 Oberwolfach Conference on Mathematical Methods in Celestial Mechanics.This paper is dedicated to the 60th Birthday of Prof. V. Szebehely.     

The geomagnetic and cosmic-ray storm of May 25/26, 1967

A series of geomagnetic disturbances and cosmic ray variations caused by the McMath plage region 8818 in the latter half of May 1967 were examined. The systematic changes of the geomagnetic disturbances were observed as the relative location between the responsible flares and the earth changed during the half solar rotation period.The storm of May 25/26, 1967 was then studied in great detail on the basis of records from a number of magnetic and cosmic ray observatories. A large asymmetric main phase field in mid-and low-latitude regions (and thus an asymmetric ring current belt) grew rapidly during the first three successive polar magnetic substorms. The cosmic ray intensity variations during the storm consisted of the Forbush decrease and the ring current effect. The Forbush decrease had a marked north-south asymmetry during its developing phase.     

Coherency of rupture and seismic spectrum

In considering the seismic spectrum, one of the methods to incorporate irregularity of fault motion statistically is to introduce the concept of coherency of fracture. In a classic paper,Aki (1967) investigated the scaling law of seismic spectrum on the basis of a statistical model in which an exponentially decaying function is fitted to the autocorrelation function of the dislocation velocity. It is found, however, thatAki's model does not necessarily express irregular fault motion, but corresponds to a smooth dislocation. We show that an analytical function of dislocation velocity gives the same autocorrelation function and the same seismic spectrum as those ofAki's model. In actual fault motion, there is considerable evidence which indicates that the dislocation is not continuous and smooth over the whole fault plane, but is often segmented in several parts. In order to take into consideration this feature we introduce a generalized autocorrelation function of the dislocation velocity in which many coherent fractures smaller than the size of the fault dimension are included. It is shown that the more small-scale coherent fractures, the larger the seismic wave energy in the high frequency range.Kanamori andAllen (1986) showed that a large ratio of seismic wave energy relative to the seismic moment means a large effective stress drop. On the other hand, it is well known that when a fault plane is segmented in several parts, stress drop becomes large (e.g.,Madariaga, 1979;Rudnicki andKanamori, 1981). These two results are fused in our model, because we find that large seismic wave energy is obtained when the fault motion includes small-scale fractures.Kanamori andAllen (1986) also showed that there is a tendency for earthquakes with long repeat times to have a large effective stress drop. Our model implies that a fracture corresponding to earthquakes with long recurrence intervals is more complex, and the strength is large, as also suggested byCao andAki (1986) using a numerical simulation. It should be noted that to the zeroth order, an approximate scaling relation is observed among earthquakes, which means that a large earthquake consists of a relatively large-scale coherent fracture. This fact seems to suggest that the condition of occurrence of a large earthquake is related to the maturing of a source region in which a large coherent fracture becomes feasible.     

Forecast of volcanic eruptions by chemical methods

From the magmatic emanations differentiation point of view it is possible to calculate some ratios such as F/CO₂, Cl/CO₂, SO₂/CO₂, SO₂/H₂S, H₂S/CO₂ and CO₂/N₂ in the tumarolic gases for the forecasting of volcanic activity. In order to predict the cruptions of a volcano it is needed to select several fumaroles or hot springs having different regimes of variation of the above ratios. The study of some fumaroles composition at the Asama. Mihara, Kirishima and other volcanoes in Japan showed a close connection between volcanic gas compositions and state of the volcanoes.     

Differentation of magmatic emanation

Chemical properties of magmatic emanation can be estimated roughly by i) volatiles from rocks by heating at various temperatures, ii) volcanic emanations, iii) residual magmatic emanations, iv) calculation from chemical equilibrium between volatile matters and magmas. Magmatic emanation is assumed to consist all of the volatile matters in magmas such asH ₂ O, HCl, HF, SO ₂ H ₂ S, H ₂,CO 2,N ₂ and others (halides, etc.) at about 1200°C, although various kinds of magmatic emanations can be formed at different conditions. Magmatic emanation separated from magmas will change their chemical properties by many factors such as changes of temperature and pressure (displacement of chemical equilibrium), and reactions with other substances and it will differentiate into volcanic gases, volcanic waters, volcanic sublimates, and hydrothermal deposits (hot spring deposits). At temperatures above the critical point of water, separation of solid phase (sublimates), liquid phase, and displacement of chemical equilibrium may take place, and gaseous phase will gradually change their chemical properties as will be seen at many fumaroles. Chloride, hydrogen, andSO ₂ contents will gradually decrease along with lowering temperature. Once aqueous liquid phase appears below the critical point of water, all the soluble materials may dissolve into this hydrothermal solution. Consequently, the gaseous phase at this stage must have usually a little hydrogen chloride as is observed at many fumaroles. Aqueous solutions must be of acidic nature by dissolution of acid forming components, and by hydrolysis (Chloride type). When a self-reduction-oxidation reaction of sulfurous acid takes place, an aqueous solution of sulfate type will be formed. At this stage, solid phases consist of the remained sublimates which are difficultly soluble in aqueous solution, and deposits formed by reaction in the hydrothermal solutions. The gaseous phases below the boiling point of water, have usually a little water, and consist mainly ofCO ₂ type,H ₂ S type,N ₂ type, and mixed type owing to elimination or addition of components by reactions with waters or wall rocks according to their geological conditions. Aqueous solutions which was of acidic nature must be changed into alkaline solutions by reaction with wall rocks for a long time. When the oxidation of sulfur compounds takes place, an aqueous solution of sulfate type will be formed. Hydrogen sulfide type of water will be formed by reaction of sulfides with acid waters or absorption of hydrogen sulfide. Carbonate type of water will be formed whenCO ₂ is absorbed. Solid phases at this stage consist usually of hydrothermal deposits except for that at solfatara or mofette. The course of differentiation of magmatic emanation could take place in more complicated ways than that of magmatic differentiation.     

Redox front formation in an uplifting sedimentary rock sequence: An analogue for redox-controlling processes in the geosphere around deep geological repositories for radioactive waste

Subsurface redox fronts control the mobilization and fixation of many trace elements, including potential pollutants such as certain radionuclides. Any safety assessment for a deep geological repository for radioactive wastes needs to take into account adequately the long-term redox processes in the geosphere surrounding the repository. To build confidence in understanding these processes, a redox front in a reduced siliceous sedimentary rock distributed in an uplifting area in Japan has been studied in detail. Geochemical analyses show increased concentrations of Fe and trace elements, including rare earth elements (REEs), at the redox front, even though concentrations of reduced rock matrix constituents show little change. Detailed SEM observations revealed that fossilized microorganisms composed of amorphous granules made exclusively of Fe and Si occur in the rock’s pore space. Microbial 16S rDNA analysis suggests that there is presently a zonation of different bacterial groups within the redox band, and bacterial zonation played an important role in the concentration of Fe-oxyhydroxides at the redox front. These water–rock–microbe interactions can be considered analogous to the processes occurring in the redox fronts that would develop around geological repositories for radioactive waste. Once formed, the Fe-oxyhydroxides within such a front would be preserved even after reducing conditions resume following repository closure.