Temporal structures of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its impact on the regional climate variability

In this study, the temporal structure of the variation of North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） and its impact on regional climate variability are analyzed using various datasets. The results show that blocking formations in the Atlantic region are sensitive to the phase of the NAO. Sixty-seven percent more winter blocking days are observed during the negative phase compared to the positive phase of the NAO. The average length of blocking during the negative phase is about 11 days, which is nearly twice as long as the 6-day length observed during the positive phase of the NAO. The NAO-related differences in blocking frequency and persistence are associated with changes in the distribution of the surface air temperature anomaly, which, to a large extent, is determined by the phase of the NAO. The distribution of regional cloud amount is also sensitive to the phase of the NAO. For the negative phase, the cloud amounts are significant, positive anomalies in the convective zone in the Tropics and much less cloudiness in the mid latitudes. But for the positive phase of the NAO, the cloud amount is much higher in the mid-latitude storm track region. In the whole Atlantic region, the cloud amount shows a decrease with the increase of surface air temperature. These results suggest that there may be a negative feedback between the cloud amount and the surface air t.emperature in the Atlantic region.     

Trends in timing of low stream flows in Canada: impact of autocorrelation and long‐term persistence

The annual timing of river flows might indicate changes that are climate related. In this study, trends in timing of low flows for the Reference Hydrometric Basin Network were investigated under three different hypotheses namely: independence, short‐term persistence (STP) and long‐term persistence (LTP). Both summer and winter time series were characterized with scaling behaviour providing strong evidence of LTP. The Mann–Kendall trend test was modified to account for STP and LTP, and used to detect trends in timing of low flows. It was found that considering STP and LTP resulted in a significant decrease in the number of detected trends. Numerical analysis showed that the timing of summer 7‐day low flows exhibited significant trends in 16, 9 and 7% of stations under independence, STP and LTP assumptions, respectively. Timing of summer low flow shifted toward later dates in western Canada, whereas the majority of stations in the east half of the country (except Atlantic Provinces) experienced a shift toward earlier dates. Timing of winter low flow experienced significant trends in 20, 12, and 6% of stations under independence, STP and LTP assumptions, respectively. Shift in timing of winter low flow toward earlier dates was dominant all over the country where it shifted toward earlier dates in up to 3/4 of time series with significant trends. There are local patterns of upward significant/insignificant trends in southeast, southwest and northern Canada. This study shows that timing of low flows in Canada is time dependent; however, addressing the full complexity of memory properties (i.e. short term vs long term) of a natural process is beyond the scope of this study. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trend analysis of precipitation in Jharkhand State,India

Jharkhand is one of the eastern states of India which has an agriculture-based economy. Uncertain and erratic distribution of precipitation as well as a lack of state water resources planning is the major limitation to crop growth in the region. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability in precipitation in the state was examined using a monthly precipitation time series of 111 years (1901–2011) from 18 meteorological stations. Autocorrelation and Mann–Kendall/modified Mann–Kendall tests were utilized to detect possible trends, and the Theil and Sen slope estimator test was used to determine the magnitude of change over the entire time series. The most probable change year (change point) was detected using the Pettitt–Mann–Whitney test, and the entire time series was sub-divided into two parts: before and after the change point. Arc-Map 9.3 software was utilized to assess the spatial patterns of the trends over the entire state. Annual precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend in 5 out of 18 stations during the whole period. For annual, monsoon and winter periods of precipitation, the slope test indicated a decreasing trend for all stations during 1901–2011. The highest variability was observed in post-monsoon precipitation (77.87 %) and the lowest variability was observed in the annual series (15.76 %) over the 111 years. An increasing trend in precipitation in the state was found during the period 1901–1949, which was reversed during the subsequent period (1950–2011).     

Characterization of hydrogeologic properties of the Tabriz plain multilayer aquifer system,NW Iran

A detailed hydrogeological investigation was carried out in the Tabriz plain in Iran using conventional hydrogeological field investigations and hydrochemistry. The study was carried out because the aquifers are of particular importance as they are more or less the only source of water supply available to the rural population and for agricultural and industrial activities. Analytical and numerical methods were applied to the constant rate pumping test data from the Tabriz airport and the Tabriz Power Station well fields. Two types of aquifers of different water quality were identified in the study area: an unconfined aquifer that extends over the plain and confined aquifers that are found in the deeper layers of the multilayered sediment terraces of the Aji-Chay River course. Therefore, the central part of the Tabriz plain contains both unconfined and confined aquifers, while close to the highlands, there is only an unconfined aquifer. There was evidence of minor leakage in the confined aquifers when the numerical method was used for analysis. The groundwater in the area can be identified by three main geochemical facies: Na-Cl, Ca-HCO₃, and mixed Ca-Mg-Cl-SO₄. The processes responsible for the hydrochemical evolution in the area fall into five categories: dissolution of evaporate minerals, precipitation of carbonate minerals, evaporation, ion exchange, and anthropogenic activity.     

Multivariate hydrologic time series analysis

The objective of this study is to establish a multivariate watershed hydrologic system model involving meteorological data as the input and river flow as the output of the system. Monthly hydrological time series of runoff, temperature and precipitation were selected for analysis. A first-order autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) transfer function model was found adequate to describe the multivariate watershed hydrologic system for the monthly runoff and meteorological time series. The results also indicated that the coordinated use of the meteorological and hydrometric data would enhance the accuracy of estimation of runoff characteristics.     

Role of transverse strike-slip faults in the structure of the Karpinsky Ridge and their kinematics

The segmented structure of the Karpinsky Ridge is determined by NE-trending transverse strikeslip faults with offsets of approximately 30–40 km. The newly recognized Pribrezhny Fault and the well-known Agrakhan Fault are the largest. A new correlation scheme for structural elements of the ridge’s eastern segment and its underwater continuation is proposed with account of offset along the Pribrezhny Fault. According to this scheme, the Semenovsky Trough rather than the Dzhanai Trough is an onshore continuation of the underwater Zyudevsky Trough. The uplift located south of the Zyudevsky Trough is correlated with the Promyslovy-Tsubuk Swell offset along the Pribrezhny Fault. In turn, this uplift is displaced along the right-lateral strike-slip fault that coincides with the Agrakhan Fault. The transverse faults were formed during the Early Permian collision related to the closure of the basin, which was presumably underlain by the oceanic crust. The faults were active during the Early Triassic rifting and Late Triassic inversion. Judging from the map of the surface of the Maikop sediments, the Agrakhan Fault does not cross the Terek-Caspian Trough. Bending arcwise, the fault joins a system of right-lateral strike-slip faults that border the Daghestan Wedge in the east. A system of rightlateral strike-slip faults may also be traced along the western coast of the Caspian Sea. The Agrakhan Fault as a northern element of this system functioned mostly in the Late Paleozoic-Early Mesozoic in connection with the formation of the fold-thrust structure of the Karpinsky Ridge. In the east the faults of the southern segment bound the Caucasus syntaxis of the Alpine Belt; they have retained their activity to the present day.     

River flow forecasting using wavelet and cross‐wavelet transform models

In this study, short‐term river flood forecasting models based on wavelet and cross‐wavelet constituent components were developed and evaluated for forecasting daily stream flows with lead times equal to 1, 3, and 7 days. These wavelet and cross‐wavelet models were compared with artificial neural network models and simple perseverance models. This was done using data from the Skrwa Prawa River watershed in Poland. Numerical analysis was performed on daily maximum stream flow data from the Parzen station and on meteorological data from the Plock weather station in Poland. Data from 1951 to 1979 was used to train the models while data from 1980 to 1983 was used to test the models. The study showed that forecasting models based on wavelet and cross‐wavelet constituent components can be used with great accuracy as a stand‐alone forecasting method for 1 and 3 days lead time river flood forecasting, assuming that there are no significant trends in the amplitude for the same Julian day year‐to‐year, and that there is a relatively stable phase shift between the flow and meteorological time series. It was also shown that forecasting models based on wavelet and cross‐wavelet constituent components for forecasting river floods are not accurate for longer lead time forecasting such as 7 days, with the artificial neural network models providing more accurate results. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Cretaceous-Paleogene deepwater basin of North Afghanistan and the Central Pamirs: Issue of Hindu Kush earthquakes

The within-Iranian backarc basins, including the largest Sebzawar Basin, opened in the Mid-Cretaceous. Spreading in this basin was completed by the end of the Cretaceous. The basin closed in the Eocene with the formation of subduction zones and volcanic-plutonic belts. Data on North Afghanistan and the Central Pamirs have allowed us to reconstruct the eastern continuation of the Sebzawar Basin up to the west of the Central Pamirs. No fragments of oceanic crust are retained in Afghanistan and the Pamirs, but by analogy with the Sebzawar Basin, thick Paleogene flysch sequences and volcanic-plutonic complexes indicate setting of the active margin and subduction. It is suggested that the belt of mantle seismicity that extends for 550 km to the south of the Central Pamirs is related to the plunging and deformation of the lithosphere once underlying the Cretaceous-Paleogene basin. The extremely vigorous seismicity of the Hindu Kush megasource at the western termination of the seismic belt is caused by a number of specific tectonic features that predetermined the early onset of plunging of the subducted sheet (slab). In the megasource, the slab sank to a depth of 300 km and became vertical; its active deformation has proceeded up to the present. In the eastern part of the seismic belt, the slab started to plunge much later and therefore has retained a gentle slope, so that the depth of the hypocenters is shallower (down to 200 km), and earthquakes are less strong.     

Determining the amplitude and timing of streamflow discontinuities: A cross wavelet analysis approach

Records of natural processes, such as gradual streamflow fluctuations, are commonly interrupted by long or short disruptions from natural non‐linear responses to gradual changes, such as from river‐ice break‐ups, freezing as a result of annual solar cycles, or human causes, such as flow blocking by dams and other means, instrument calibrations and failure. The resulting abrupt or gradual shifts and missing data are considered to be discontinuities with respect to the normal signal. They differ from random noise as they do not follow any fixed distribution over time and, hence, cannot be eliminated by filtering. The multi‐scale resolution features of continuous wavelet analysis and cross wavelet analysis were used in this study to determine the amplitude and timing of such streamflow discontinuities for specific wavebands. The cross wavelet based method was able to detect the strength and timing of abrupt shifts to new streamflow levels, gaps in data records longer than the waveband of interest and a sinusoidal discontinuity curve following an underlying modeled annual signal at ±0.5 year uncertainty. Parameter testing of the time‐frequency resolution demonstrated that high temporal resolution using narrow analysis windows is favorable to high‐frequency resolution for detection of waveband‐related discontinuities. Discontinuity analysis on observed daily streamflow records from Canadian rivers showed the following: (i) that there is at least one discontinuity/year related to the annual spring flood in each record studied, and (ii) neighboring streamflows have similar discontinuity patterns. In addition, the discontinuity density of the Canadian streamflows studied in this paper exhibit 11‐year cycles that are inversely correlated with the solar intensity cycle. This suggests that more streamflow discontinuities, such as through fast freezing, snowmelt, or ice break‐up, may occur during years with slightly lowered solar insolation. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.