Record selection for aftershock incremental dynamic analysis

The back‐to‐back application of mainshock records as aftershock is often considered in conducting aftershock incremental dynamic analysis. In such an approach, the characteristics of mainshock records are considered to be similar to those of major aftershock records within the same mainshock–aftershock sequences. The underlying assumption is that the characteristics of selected mainshocks, other than those used for record selection, are not significant in the assessment of structural responses. A case study is set up to investigate the effects of aftershock record selection on the collapse vulnerability assessment. The numerical results for a specific wood‐frame structure indicate that the aftershock fragility can be affected by the aftershock record characteristics, particularly response spectral shape. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bayesian tsunami fragility modeling considering input data uncertainty

Empirical tsunami fragility curves are developed based on a Bayesian framework by accounting for uncertainty of input tsunami hazard data in a systematic and comprehensive manner. Three fragility modeling approaches, i.e. lognormal method, binomial logistic method, and multinomial logistic method, are considered, and are applied to extensive tsunami damage data for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. A unique aspect of this study is that uncertainty of tsunami inundation data (i.e. input hazard data in fragility modeling) is quantified by comparing two tsunami inundation/run-up datasets (one by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transportation of the Japanese Government and the other by the Tohoku Tsunami Joint Survey group) and is then propagated through Bayesian statistical methods to assess the effects on the tsunami fragility models. The systematic implementation of the data and methods facilitates the quantitative comparison of tsunami fragility models under different assumptions. Such comparison shows that the binomial logistic method with un-binned data is preferred among the considered models; nevertheless, further investigations related to multinomial logistic regression with un-binned data are required. Finally, the developed tsunami fragility functions are integrated with building damage-loss models to investigate the influences of different tsunami fragility curves on tsunami loss estimation. Numerical results indicate that the uncertainty of input tsunami data is not negligible (coefficient of variation of 0.25) and that neglecting the input data uncertainty leads to overestimation of the model uncertainty.     

Near-fault acceleration pulses and non-acceleration pulses: Effects on the inelastic displacement ratio

Near-fault ground motions can impose particularly high seismic demands on the structures due to the pulses that are typically observed in the velocity time-histories. The velocity pulses can be further categorized into either a distinct acceleration pulse (acc-pulse) or a succession of high-frequency, one-sided acceleration spikes (non-acc-pulse). The different characteristics of velocity pulses imply different frequency content of the ground motions, potentially causing different seismic effects on the structures. This study aims to investigate the characteristics of the two types of velocity pulses and their impacts on the inelastic displacement ratio (C_R) of single-degree-of-freedom systems. First, a new method that enables an automated classification of velocity pulses is used to compile a ground motion dataset which consists of 74 acc-pulses and 45 non-acc-pulses. Several intensity measures characterizing different seismological features are then compared using the two groups of records. Finally, the influences of acc-pulses and non-acc-pulses on the C_R spectra are studied; the effects of pulse period and hysteretic behavior are also considered. Results indicate that the characteristics of the two types of velocity pulses differ significantly, resulting in clearly distinct C_R spectral properties between acc-pulses and non-acc-pulses. Interestingly, mixing acc-pulses and non-acc-pulses can lead to local “bumps” that were found in the C_R spectral shape by previous studies. The findings of this study highlight the importance of distinguishing velocity pulses of different types when selecting near-fault ground motions for assessing the nonlinear dynamic response of structures.     

Decision-theoretic sensitivity analysis for reservoir development under uncertainty using multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo methods

At various stages of petroleum reservoir development, we encounter a large degree of geological uncertainty under which a rational decision has to be made. In order to identify which parameter or group of parameters significantly affects the output of a decision model, we investigate decision-theoretic sensitivity analysis and its computational issues in this paper. In particular, we employ the so-called expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) as a sensitivity index and apply multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods to efficient estimation of EVPPI. In a recent paper by Giles and Goda, an antithetic MLMC estimator for EVPPI is proposed and its variance analysis is conducted under some assumptions on a decision model. In this paper, for an improvement on the performance of the MLMC estimator, we incorporate randomized quasi-Monte Carlo methods within the inner sampling, which results in an multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo (MLQMC) estimator. We apply both the antithetic MLMC and MLQMC estimators to a simple waterflooding decision problem under uncertainty on absolute permeability and relative permeability curves. Through numerical experiments, we compare the performances of the MLMC and MLQMC estimators and confirm a significant advantage of the MLQMC estimator.     

Earthquake insurance portfolio analysis of wood-frame houses in south-western British Columbia,Canada

Earthquake disasters affect many structures and infrastructure simultaneously and collectively, and cause tremendous tangible and intangible loss. In particular, catastrophic earthquakes impose tremendous financial stress on insurers who underwrite earthquake insurance policies in a seismic region, resulting in possible insolvency. This study develops a stochastic net worth model of an insurer undertaking both ordinary risk and catastrophic earthquake risk, and evaluates its solvency and operability under catastrophic seismic risk. The ordinary risk is represented by a geometric Brownian motion process, whereas the catastrophic earthquake risk is characterized by an earthquake-engineering-based seismic loss model. The developed model is applied to hypothetical 4000 wood-frame houses in south-western British Columbia, Canada, to investigate the impact of key insurance portfolio parameters to insurer’s ruin probability and business operability. The analysis results indicate: (i) the physical effects of spatially correlated ground motions and local soil conditions at insured properties are significant; (ii) the insurer’s earthquake risk exposure depends greatly on insurance arrangement (e.g. deductible and cap); and (iii) the maintenance of sufficient initial surplus is critical in keeping insurer’s insolvency potential reasonably low, while volatility of non-catastrophic risk is the key for insurer’s business stability. The results highlight the importance of adequate balance between business stability under normal conditions and solvency under extreme conditions for efficient earthquake risk management. Flexibility for determining an insurance arrangement would be beneficial for insurers to enhance their portfolio performance and to offer more affordable coverage to their clients.     

Effects of aftershocks on peak ductility demand due to strong ground motion records from shallow crustal earthquakes

Aftershocks induced by a large mainshock can cause additional damage to structures and infrastructure, hampering building reoccupation and restoration activities in a post‐disaster situation. To assess the nonlinear damage potential due to aftershocks, this study investigates the effects of aftershocks by using real as well as artificially generated mainshock–aftershock sequences. The real mainshock–aftershock sequences are constructed from the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center—Next Generation Attenuation database for worldwide shallow crustal earthquakes; however, they are deemed to be incomplete because of missing records. To supplement incomplete real dataset, artificial sequences are generated on the basis of the generalized Omori's law, and a suitable aftershock record selection procedure is then devised to simulate time‐series data for mainshock–aftershock sequences. The results from nonlinear dynamic analysis of inelastic single‐degree‐of‐freedom systems using real and artificial sequences indicate that the incremental effects of aftershocks on peak ductility demand using the real sequences are relatively minor and that peak ductility demand estimates based on the generalized Omori's law are greater, particularly in the upper tail, than those for the real sequences. The results based on the generalized Omori's law also suggest that the aftershock effects based on the real sequences might underestimate the aftershock impact because of the incompleteness of the real dataset. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stochastic coupled simulation of strong motion and tsunami for the 2011 Tohoku,Japan earthquake

This study conducts coupled simulation of strong motion and tsunami using stochastically generated earthquake source models. It is focused upon the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake. The ground motion time-histories are simulated using the multiple-event stochastic finite-fault method, which takes into account multiple local rupture processes in strong motion generation areas. For tsunami simulation, multiple realizations of wave profiles are generated by evaluating nonlinear shallow water equations with run-up. Key objectives of this research are: (i) to investigate the sensitivity of strong motion and tsunami hazard parameters to asperities and strong motion generation areas, and (ii) to quantify the spatial variability and dependency of strong motion and tsunami predictions due to common earthquake sources. The investigations provide valuable insights in understanding the temporal and spatial impact of cascading earthquake hazards. Importantly, the study also develops an integrated strong motion and tsunami simulator, which is capable of capturing earthquake source uncertainty. Such an advanced numerical tool is necessary for assessing the performance of buildings and infrastructure that are subjected to cascading earthquake–tsunami hazards.     

Ground motion characteristics and shaking damage of the 11th March 2011 M w9.0 Great East Japan earthquake

A catastrophic M _w9.0 earthquake and subsequent giant tsunami struck the Tōhoku and Kanto regions of Japan on 11th March 2011, causing tremendous casualties, massive damage to structures and infrastructure, and huge economic loss. This event has revealed weakness and vulnerability of urban cities and modern society in Japan, which were thought to be one of the most earthquake-prepared nations in the world. Nevertheless, recorded ground motion data from this event offer invaluable information and opportunity; their unique features include very strong short-period spectral content, long duration, and effects due to local asperities as well as direction of rupture/wave propagation. Aiming at gaining useful experience from this tragic event, Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team (EEFIT) organised and dispatched a team to the Tōhoku region of Japan. During the EEFIT mission, ground shaking damage surveys were conducted in Sendai, Shirakawa, and Sukagawa, where the Japan Meteorological Agency intensity of 6+ was observed and instrumentally recorded ground motion data were available. The damage survey results identify the key factors for severe shaking damage, such as insufficient lateral reinforcement and detailing in structural columns from structural capacity viewpoint and rich spectral content of ground shaking in the intermediate vibration period range from seismic demand viewpoint. Importantly, inclusion of several ground motion parameters, such as nonlinear structural response, in shaking damage surveys, can improve the correlation of observed ground motion with shaking damage and therefore enhance existing indicators of potential damage.