Trans‐dimensional Bayesian inversion of controlled‐source electromagnetic data in the German North Sea

This paper presents the first controlled‐source electromagnetic survey carried out in the German North Sea with a recently developed seafloor‐towed electrical dipole–dipole system, i.e., HYDRA II. Controlled‐source electromagnetic data are measured, processed, and inverted in the time domain to estimate an electrical resistivity model of the sub‐seafloor. The controlled‐source electromagnetic survey targeted a shallow, phase‐reversed, seismic reflector, which potentially indicates free gas. To compare the resistivity model to reflection seismic data and draw a combined interpretation, we apply a trans‐dimensional Bayesian inversion that estimates model parameters and uncertainties, and samples probabilistically over the number of layers of the resistivity model. The controlled‐source electromagnetic data errors show time‐varying correlations, and we therefore apply a non‐Toeplitz data covariance matrix in the inversion that is estimated from residual analysis. The geological interpretation drawn from controlled‐source electromagnetic inversion results and borehole and reflection seismic data yield resistivities of ～1 Ωm at the seafloor, which are typical for fine‐grained marine deposits, whereas resistivities below ～20 mbsf increase to 2–4 Ωm and can be related to a transition from fine‐grained (Holocene age) to unsorted, coarse‐grained, and compacted glacial sediments (Pleistocene age). Interface depths from controlled‐source electromagnetic inversion generally match the seismic reflector related to the contrast between the different depositional environments. Resistivities decrease again at greater depths to ～1 Ωm with a minimum resistivity at ～300 mbsf where a seismic reflector (that marks a major flooding surface of late Miocene age) correlates with an increased gamma‐ray count, indicating an increased amount of fine‐grained sediments. We suggest that the grain size may have a major impact on the electrical resistivity of the sediment with lower resistivities for fine‐grained sediments. Concerning the phase‐reversed seismic reflector that was targeted by the survey, controlled‐source electromagnetic inversion results yield no indication for free gas below it as resistivities are generally elevated above the reflector. We suggest that the elevated resistivities are caused by an overall decrease in porosity in the glacial sediments and that the seismic reflector could be caused by an impedance contrast at a thin low‐velocity layer. Controlled‐source electromagnetic interface depths near the reflector are quite uncertain and variable. We conclude that the seismic interface cannot be resolved with the controlled‐source electromagnetic data, but the thickness of the corresponding resistive layer follows the trend of the reflector that is inclined towards the west.     

Influence of boundary conditions on the out‐of‐plane response of brick masonry walls in buildings with RC slabs

In modern unreinforced masonry buildings with stiff RC slabs, walls of the top floor are most susceptible to out‐of‐plane failure. The out‐of‐plane response depends not only on the acceleration demand and wall geometry but also on the static and kinematic boundary conditions of the walls. This paper discusses the influence of these boundary conditions on the out‐of‐plane response through evaluation of shake table test results and numerical modelling. As a novum, it shows that the in‐plane response of flanking elements, which are orthogonal to the wall whose out‐of‐plane response is studied, has a significant influence on the vertical restraint at the top of the walls. The most critical configuration exists if the flanking elements are unreinforced masonry walls that rock. In this case, the floor slabs can uplift, and the out‐of‐plane load‐bearing walls loose the vertical restraint at the top. Numerical modelling confirms this experimentally observed behaviour and shows that slab uplift and the difference in base and top excitation have a strong influence on the out‐of‐plane response of the walls analysed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.     

Ocean iron fertilization: Why further research is needed

Despite large uncertainties in the fertilization efficiency, natural iron fertilization studies and some of the purposeful iron enrichment studies have demonstrated that Southern Ocean iron fertilization can lead to a significant export of carbon from the sea surface to the ocean interior. From an economic perspective the potential of ocean iron fertilization (OIF) is far from negligible in relation to other abatement options. Comparing the range of cost estimates to the range of estimates for forestation projects they are in the same order of magnitude, but OIF could provide more carbon credits even if high discount rates are used to account for potential leakage and non-permanence. However, the uncertainty about undesired adverse effects of purposeful iron fertilization on marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry has led to attempts to ban commercial and, to some extent, scientific experiments aimed at a better understanding of the processes involved, effectively precluding further consideration of this mitigation option. As regards the perspective of public international law, the pertinent agreements dealing with the protection of the marine environment indicate that OIF is to be considered as lawful if and to the extent to which it represents legitimate scientific research. In this respect, the precautionary principle can be used to balance the risks arising out of scientific OIF activities for the marine environment with the potential advantages relevant to the objectives of the climate change regime. As scientific OIF experiments involve only comparatively small negative impacts within a limited marine area, further scientific research must be permitted to explore the carbon sequestration potential of OIF in order to either reject this concept or integrate it into the flexible mechanisms contained in the Kyoto Protocol.     

Mixing efficiency from microstructure measurements in the Sicily Channel

Ocean Dynamics - The dissipation flux coefficient, a measure of the mixing efficiency of a turbulent flow, was computed from microstructure measurements collected with a vertical microstructure...     

Analytical model for the out‐of‐plane response of vertically spanning unreinforced masonry walls

An analytical model describing the flexural response of vertically spanning out‐of‐plane loaded unreinforced masonry walls is presented in this paper. The model is based on the second‐order Euler‐Bernoulli beam theory and captures important characteristics of the out‐of‐plane response of masonry walls that have been observed in experimental tests and from numerical studies but for which an analytical solution was still lacking: the onset and the evolution of cracking, the peak strength of the out‐of‐plane loaded walls, and the softening of the response due to P ?Δ effects. The model is validated against experimental results, and the comparison shows that the model captures both the prepeak and postpeak response of the walls. From the analytical model of the force‐displacement curve, a formula for the maximum out‐of‐plane strength of the walls is derived, which can be directly applied in engineering practice.     

The influence of structural organization of epilithic and endolithic lichens on limestone weathering

Hyphal penetration, mineral dissolution and neoformation at the lichen–rock interface have been widely characterized by microscopic and spectroscopic studies, and considered as proxies of lichen deterioration of stone substrates. However, these phenomena have not been clearly related to experimental data on physical properties related to stone durability, and the physical consequences of lichen removal from stone surfaces have also been overlooked. In this study, we combine microscopic and spectroscopic characterization of the structural organization of epi‐ and endolithic lichens (Caloplaca marina (Wedd.) Du Rietz, Caloplaca ochracea (Schaer.) Flagey, Bagliettoa baldensis (A.Massal.) Vězda, Porina linearis (Leight.) Zahlbr., Verrucaria nigrescens Pers.) at the interface with limestones of interest for Cultural Heritage (Portland Limestone, Botticino Limestone), with analysis of rock properties (water absorption, surface hardness) relevant for durability, before and after the removal or scraping of lichen thalli. Observations using reflected‐light and electron microscopy, and Raman analyses, showed lichen–limestone stratified interfaces, differing in the presence/absence and depth of lichen anatomical layers (lithocortex, photobiont layer, pervasive and sparse hyphal penetration component) depending on species and lithology. Specific structural organizations of lichen–rock interface were found to be associated with differential patterns of water absorption increase, evaluated by Karsten tube, in comparison with surfaces with microbial biofilms only, even more pronounced after the removal or scraping of the upper structural layers. Equotip measurements on surfaces bearing intact thalli showed lower hardness in comparison with control surfaces. By contrast, after the removal or scraping procedures, Equotip values were similar to or higher than those of controls, suggesting that the increasing open porosity may be related to a biogenic hardening process. Such counterposed patterns of porosity increase and hardening need to be considered when models relating lichen occurrence on limestones and biogeomorphological surface evolution are proposed, and to evaluate the consequences of lichen removal from stone‐built cultural heritage. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Depth-stratified community zonation patterns on Gulf of Alaska rocky shores

Vertical zonation patterns have been considered ubiquitous in intertidal ecosystems but questions remain about their generality for individual taxonomic groups and over broad spatial scales, and whether they continue into adjacent shallow subtidal habitats. Taxon richness, invertebrate abundance, and macroalgal biomass were examined in the summer of 2003 along a vertical gradient in the rocky intertidal and shallow subtidal habitats around Kodiak Island, Kachemak Bay, and Prince William Sound, all within the Gulf of Alaska. Replicate samples of benthic organisms were taken in the high (～ 7 m), mid (～ 4 m) and low (～ 0 m) intertidal (relative to MLLW), and at 1, 5, 10 and 15 m water depths at three sites in each region, and identified to the lowest possible taxonomic level. Our primary goals were to assess (1) how estimates of taxon richness, invertebrate abundance, and macroalgal biomass vary among intertidal heights and subtidal depths and (2) how general these patterns are when considered across the Gulf of Alaska. Our results show that when all invertebrates were considered together, most of the variation in taxon richness was accounted for by differences among depths (i.e. intertidal heights and subtidal depths) (～ 51%), and among replicate samples within each depth (～ 26%). Little to none of the variation was accounted for by differences among sites within each region (～ 1%) or among regions themselves (～ 0%). When considered across the Gulf of Alaska, total taxon richness and organism abundance were greatest in the low intertidal/shallow subtidal and decreased with increasing height/depth. When separated by phylum and examined together with macroalgae, variation in abundance and/or biomass among depths was significant and accounted for most of the variability. Differences among regions and sites within each region were not significant and accounted for little to none of the variance. Because the pattern of zonation varied among sites within each region, it reduced the generality of a single zonation pattern for the Gulf of Alaska. Likewise, when community composition was compared among depths, geographic regions and sites within each region using multivariate analyses, vertical zonation patterns were evident at a regional scale, but high variability in these patterns among sites within each region reduced the generality of these patterns.     

Environmental Governance Meets Reality: A Micro-Scale Perspective on Sustainability Certification Schemes for Oil Palm Smallholders in Jambi,Sumatra

Abstract

Multi-stakeholder sustainability certification schemes have become a favorite instrument for applying good governance, though studies indicate their inefficiency at the producer level. In this study, we used a mixed-method approach to first, map the institutional context of independent oil-palm smallholders in rural Sumatra while, second, reflecting upon the impact of the Smallholder Standard proposed by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil on smallholder management practices. We hold that non-recognition of micro-scale perspectives within governance processes may partially explain noncompliance with certification principles among smallholders. The Smallholder Standard appears unable to mitigate challenges important for smallholders, who in turn cannot properly comply with it, due to problems including weather instability and high management costs. We suggest that certification schemes need to work on some overlooked but essential preconditions of good governance, namely gaining micro-level visibility and acceptance.