Probabilistic spatial risk assessment of heat impacts and adaptations for London

High temperatures and heatwaves can cause large societal impacts by increasing health risks, mortality rates, and personal discomfort. These impacts are exacerbated in cities because of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, and the high and increasing concentrations of people, assets and economic activities. Risks from high temperatures are now widely recognised but motivation and implementation of proportionate policy responses is inhibited by inadequate quantification of the benefits of adaptation options, and associated uncertainties. This study utilises high spatial resolution probabilistic projections of urban temperatures along with projections of demographic change, to provide a probabilistic risk assessment of heat impacts on urban society. The study focuses on Greater London and the surrounding region, assessing mortality risk, thermal discomfort in residential buildings, and adaptation options within an integrated framework. Climate change is projected to increase future heat-related mortality and residential discomfort. However, adjusting the temperature response function by 1–2 °C, to simulate adaptation and acclimatisation, reduced annual heat related mortality by 32–69 % across the scenarios tested, relative to a no adaptation scenario. Similar benefits of adaptation were seen for residential discomfort. The study also highlights additional benefits in terms of reduced mortality and residential discomfort that mitigating the urban heat island, by reducing albedo and anthropogenic heat emissions, could have.     

Archaeol as a methanogen biomarker in ombrotrophic bogs

In order to develop new tools in the reconstruction of microbiological processes in ancient continental settings, we determined the concentration of archaeol and sn-2-hydroxyarchaeol in four Holocene ombrotrophic peatlands, spanning a range of European climate zones. Neither ether lipid was present in the aerobic acrotelm peat, consistent with an origin from anaerobic archaea, presumably methanogens. At the depth of the maximum seasonal water table, archaeol and sn-2-hydroxyarchaeol concentration markedly increased at all four sites, again consistent with an anaerobic source, but differed strongly among sites. The differences apparently reflect a combination of vegetation - ericaceous and graminoid plants as opposed to Sphagnum spp. and other mosses lacking root systems - and temperature influence on methanogenesis. In particular, low ether lipid concentrations in Finland probably reflect the lack of vascular vegetation possessing well-developed root systems, together with low mean annual temperature. Similarly low concentrations of archaeol and sn-2-hydroxyarchaeol in a German bog likely result from winter temperatures below 0 °C and a relatively shorter growing season. The occurrence of sn-2-hydroxyarchaeol is limited to a narrow and shallow depth range, indicating that it is poorly preserved, but archaeol persists throughout the cores. Decoupling the concentration of archaeol and the more labile sn-2-hydroxyarchaeol below ca. 50 cm suggests that the former records fossil biomass rather than living biomass. If so, then downcore variation in archaeol concentration likely reflects past changes in methane cycling, and archaeol, pending further developmental research, could serve as a new tool for reconstruction of past peatland biogeochemistry.     

Multiple Factors driving Variability of CO2 Exchange Between the Ocean and Atmosphere in a Tropical Coral Reef Environment

In this paper, we present the results of the first automated continuous multi-year high temporal frequency study of CO₂ dynamics in a coastal coral reef ecosystem. The data cover 2.5?years of nearly continuous operation of the CRIMP-CO₂ buoy spanning particularly wet and dry seasons in southern Kaneohe Bay, a semi-enclosed tropical coral reef ecosystem in Hawaii. We interpret our observational results in the context of how rapidly changing physical and biogeochemical conditions affect the pCO₂ of surface waters and the magnitude and direction of air–sea exchange of CO₂. Local climatic forcing strongly affects the biogeochemistry, water column properties, and gas exchange between the ocean and atmosphere in Kaneohe Bay. Rainfall driven by trade winds and other localized storms generates pulses of nutrient-rich water, which exert a strong control on primary productivity and impact carbon cycling in the water column of the bay. The “La Ni?a” winter of 2005–2006 was one of the wettest winters in Hawaii in 30?years and contrasted sharply with preceding and subsequent drier winter seasons. In addition, short-term variability in physical forcing adds complexity and helps drive the response of the CO₂–carbonic acid system of the bay. Freshwater pulses to Kaneohe Bay provide nutrient subsidies to bay waters, relieving the normal nitrogen limitation of this system and driving phytoplankton productivity. Seawater pCO₂ responds to the blooms as well as to physical forcing mechanisms, leading to a relatively wide range of pCO₂ in seawater from about 250 to 650?μatm, depending on conditions. Large drawdowns in pCO₂ following storms occasionally cause bay waters to switch from being a source of CO₂ to the atmosphere to being a sink. Yet, during our study period, the southern sector of Kaneohe Bay remained a net source of CO₂ to the atmosphere on an annualized basis. The integrated net annual flux of CO₂ from the bay to the atmosphere varied between years by a factor of more than two and was lower during the wet “La Ni?a” year, than during the following year. Over the study period, the net annualized flux was 1.80?mol?C?m^?2?year^?1. Our CO₂ flux estimates are consistent with prior synoptic work in Kaneohe Bay and with estimates in other tropical coral reef ecosystems studied to date. The high degree of climatological, physical, and biogeochemical variability observed in this study suggests that automated high-frequency observations are needed to capture the short-, intermediate-, and long-term variability of CO₂ and other properties of these highly dynamic coastal coral reef ecosystems.     

Sociotechnical imaginaries of urban development: social movements around “traditional” water infrastructure in the Kathmandu Valley

This article examines the role of so-called traditional stone waterspout technologies in struggles over urban modernization in Lalitpur, Nepal. In doing so, this article questions the status of tradition in urban theorizing and mobilizes the concept of sociotechnical imaginaries as a framework for understanding the contested spatial visions of urban development. In advancing this approach, this article analyses infrastructure as a visual discourse of materials, practices, and texts, including the label “tradition.” Findings indicate that stone spouts represent material and symbolic sites for residents to express discontent with hegemonic visions of modernization, legitimize certain cultural practices, and make claims on urban space. We argue that an alternate imaginary of urban development has emerged through the prism of traditional infrastructure. This article forwards sociotechnical imaginaries as a framework for situating the multiple and contested trajectories of urban modernization, particularly the ways in which past technologies come to shape desired urban futures.     

Plankton copper requirements and uptake in the subarctic Northeast Pacific Ocean

We undertook the first measurements of metabolic Cu requirements (net Cu:C assimilation ratios) and steady-state Cu uptake rates (ρCu_ss) of natural plankton assemblages in the northeast subarctic Pacific using the short-lived radioisotope ⁶⁷Cu. Size-fractionated net Cu:C assimilation ratios varied ～3 fold (1.35–4.21 μmol Cu mol C^?1) among the stations along Line P, from high Fe coastal waters to the Fe-limited open ocean. The variability in Cu:C was comparable to biogenic Fe:C ratios in this region. As previously observed for Fe uptake, the bacterial size class accounted for half of the total particulate ρCu_ss. Interestingly, carbon biomass-normalized rates of Fe uptake from the siderophore desferrioxamine B (DFB) (ρFe_DFB; a physiological proxy for Fe-limitation) by the >20 μm size class were positively correlated with the intracellular net Cu:C assimilation ratios in this size class, suggesting that intracellular Cu requirements for large phytoplankton respond to increased Fe-limitation. At Fe-limited Ocean Station Papa (OSP), we performed short-term Cu uptake (ρCu_L) assays to determine the relative bioavailability of Cu bound to natural and synthetic ligands. Like the volumetric ρCu_ss measured along Line P, the bacterial size class was responsible for at least 50% of the total ρCu_L. Uptake rates of Cu from the various organic complexes suggest that Cu uptake was controlled by the oxidation state of the metal and by the metal:ligand concentration ratio, rather than the concentration of inorganic species of Cu in solution. Collectively, these data suggest that Cu likely plays an important role in the physiology of natural plankton communities beyond the toxicological effects studied previously.     

Dynamic screening in solar p-p reactions: is the mean-field approach applicable in solar plasma?

Although the Salpeter approximation for static screening is widely accepted and used in stellar modeling, the question of dynamic screening has been revisited. Here we reproduce Shaviv and Shaviv’s numerical analysis of the screening energy for p-p reactions in the solar core using the techniques of molecular dynamics to directly calculate the motion of ions and electrons due to Coulomb interactions without the mean-field assumption that is inherent in the Salpeter approximation. We conclude that the effects of dynamic screening are relevant and should be included in the treatment of the plasma, especially in the computation of nuclear reaction rates.     

Estimating groundwater inflow and leakage outflow for an intermontane lake with a structurally complex geology: Georgetown Lake in Montana,USA

Stable isotopes of the water molecule (δ¹⁸O and δD) for groundwater, lake water, streams, and precipitation were coupled with physical flux measurements to investigate groundwater–lake interactions and to establish a water balance for a structurally complex lake. Georgetown Lake, a shallow high-latitude high-elevation lake, is located in southwestern Montana, USA. The lake is situated between two mountain ranges with highlands primarily to the east and south of the lake and a lower valley to the west. An annual water balance and (δ¹⁸O and δD) isotope balance were used to quantify annual groundwater inflows of 2.5?×?10⁷ m³/year and lake leakage outflows of 1.6?×?10⁷ m³/year. Roughly, 57% of total inflow to the lake is from groundwater, and 37% of total outflow at Georgetown Lake is groundwater. Stable isotopes of groundwater and springs around the lake and surrounding region show that the east side of the lake contains meteoric water recharged annually from higher mountain sources, and groundwater discharge to the lake occurs through this region. However, springs located in the lower western valley and some of the surrounding domestic wells west of the lake show isotopic enrichment indicative of strong to moderate evaporation similar to Georgetown Lake water. This indicates that some outflowing lake water recharges groundwater through the underlying west-dipping bedrock in the region.     

Gendering transnational communities: a comparison of Singaporean and British migrants in China

Studies of transnational communities and transnational labour migration have focused almost exclusively on the movement of low-skilled and unskilled workers across international boundaries. While these groups may be numerically dominant, it must be recognised that there are increasing numbers of managers and professionals engaged in work-related migration in association with the intensification of economic globalisation processes. Work which has been conducted on highly skilled migrants has largely been limited to examinations of intra-firm mobility and the workspace. This approach fails to consider the ways in which the migrants' experiences are embedded in the social, economic and political practices of the host country, but also in a specific household context. It is unsurprising, therefore, that the gendered dimensions of the life of these migrants and their accompanying family members has been somewhat under-researched.Flows of expatriates can lead to the constitution of both ‘communities of transnationals', as particular cities become foci of the activities of the ‘transnational capitalist class', as well as ‘transnational communities' which involve regular and sustained contact between individuals across national boundaries. In this paper we examine these social formations using two groups of migrants––British and Singaporean migrants to China (both mainland China and the Hong Kong SAR). We focus on the gender characteristics of these groupings, but also the gender division of labour in the creation and maintenance of these ‘communities'. The paper is based on qualitative research carried out in China, Singapore and the UK 1997–2001.     

Trends in landslide occurrence in Nepal

Nepal is a mountainous, less developed kingdom that straddles the boundary between the Indian and Himalayan tectonic plates. In Nepal, landslides represent a major constraint on development, causing high levels of economic loss and substantial numbers of fatalities each year. There is a general consensus that the impacts of landslides in countries such as Nepal are increasing with time, but until now there has been little or no quantitative data to support this view, or to explain the causes of the increases. In this paper, a database of landslide fatalities in Nepal has been compiled and analysed for the period 1978–2005. The database suggests that there is a high level of variability in the occurrence of landslides from year to year, but that the overall trend is upward. Analyses of the trends in the data suggest that there is a cyclicity in the occurrence of landslide fatalities that strongly mirrors the cyclicity observed in the SW (summer) monsoon in South Asia. Perhaps surprisingly the relationship is inverse, but this is explained through an inverse relationship between monsoon strength and the amount of precipitation in the Hill District areas of Nepal. It is also clear that in recent years the number of fatalities has increased dramatically over and above the effects of the monsoon cycle. Three explanations are explored for this: land-use change, the effects of the ongoing civil war in Nepal, and road building. It is concluded that a major component of the generally upward trend in landslide impact probably results from the rural road-building programme, and its attendant changes to physical and natural systems.