黄、渤海冷空气海浪场的集合预报试验

利用欧洲集合天气预报系统51个预报风场驱动SWAN海浪模式,对黄、渤海2013年12月-2014年2月期间受冷空气影响的海浪场进行数值模拟试验,并利用浮标观测资料对海浪集合预报结果进行初步检验分析,结果显示:从逐时平均偏差结果可知,24h预报时效内集合平均与控制预报性能相近,48~72h预报时效内,集合平均明显优于控制预报,但均比实况偏小;集合分位值(75、90百分位值和极端值)明显优于集合平均,且预报时效越长,优势越明显,集合预报极端值与实况相当或略偏大;从逐24h平均偏差结果可知,集合分位值(75、90百分位值和极端值)比集合平均和控制预报更接近实况。总的分析表明:集合分位值(75、90百分位值和极端值)对受冷空气影响的海浪场具有较强的分辨能力,可以提高对海浪场的预报水平,且有较好的应用潜力。     

Power Spectrum Density of Stochastic Oscillating Accretion Disk

In this paper, we employ a stochastic oscillating accretion disk model for the power spectral index and variability of BL Lac object S5 0716+714. In the model, we assume that there is a relativistic oscillation of thin accretion disks and it interacts with an external thermal bath through a friction force and a random force. We simulate the light curve and the power spectrum density (PSD) at (i) over-damped, (ii) critically damped and (iii) under-damped cases, respectively. Our results show that the simulated PSD curves depend on the intrinsic property of the accretion disk, and it could be produced in a wide interval ranging from 0.94 to 2.05 by changing the friction coefficient in a stochastic oscillating accretion disk model. We argue that accretion disk stochastic oscillating could be a possible interpretation for observed PSD variability.