Simple indices of global climate variability and change Part II: attribution of climate change during the twentieth century

Five simple indices of surface temperature are used to investigate the influence of anthropogenic and natural (solar irradiance and volcanic aerosol) forcing on observed climate change during the twentieth century. These indices are based on spatial fingerprints of climate change and include the global-mean surface temperature, the land-ocean temperature contrast, the magnitude of the annual cycle in surface temperature over land, the Northern Hemisphere meridional temperature gradient and the hemispheric temperature contrast. The indices contain information independent of variations in global-mean temperature for unforced climate variations and hence, considered collectively, they are more useful in an attribution study than global mean surface temperature alone. Observed linear trends over 1950–1999 in all the indices except the hemispheric temperature contrast are significantly larger than simulated changes due to internal variability or natural (solar and volcanic aerosol) forcings and are consistent with simulated changes due to anthropogenic (greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol) forcing. The combined, relative influence of these different forcings on observed trends during the twentieth century is investigated using linear regression of the observed and simulated responses of the indices. It is found that anthropogenic forcing accounts for almost all of the observed changes in surface temperature during 1946–1995. We found that early twentieth century changes (1896–1945) in global mean temperature can be explained by a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing, as well as internal climate variability. Estimates of scaling factors that weight the amplitude of model simulated signals to corresponding observed changes using a combined normalized index are similar to those calculated using more complex, optimal fingerprint techniques.     

In situ methods for measuring thermal properties and heat flux on planetary bodies

The thermo-mechanical properties of planetary surface and subsurface layers control to a high extent in which way a body interacts with its environment, in particular how it responds to solar irradiation and how it interacts with a potentially existing atmosphere. Furthermore, if the natural temperature profile over a certain depth can be measured in situ, this gives important information about the heat flux from the interior and thus about the thermal evolution of the body. Therefore, in most of the recent and planned planetary lander missions experiment packages for determining thermo-mechanical properties are part of the payload. Examples are the experiment MUPUS on Rosetta's comet lander Philae, the TECP instrument aboard NASA's Mars polar lander Phoenix, and the mole-type instrument HP³ currently developed for use on upcoming lunar and Mars missions. In this review we describe several methods applied for measuring thermal conductivity and heat flux and discuss the particular difficulties faced when these properties have to be measured in a low pressure and low temperature environment. We point out the abilities and disadvantages of the different instruments and outline the evaluation procedures necessary to extract reliable thermal conductivity and heat flux data from in situ measurements.     

A new approach to detection of anthropogenic temperature changes in the Australian region

Summary A new method has been applied for detecting a human influence on regional temperature changes in Australia over the last 50 years, including the whole of Australia, the southern half of Australia and the southeastern sector of Australia. There was a strong relationship between interannual variations of rainfall and temperature in different regions in Australia. The rainfall-related component of the temperature variations was removed using linear regression and the residual temperature variations were much smaller for maximum and mean temperature, and diurnal temperature range. Model simulations of regional temperature and rainfall variations agreed reasonably well with observations.Trends in the residual variations of maximum, mean and minimum temperature over the last 50 years could not be explained by natural climate variations in all the regions considered and were consistent with the response to increasing greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols in the climate models. This new approach has been able to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio for anthropogenic temperature change signals in the Australian region and to show that there is a clear anthropogenic warming signal in observed regional temperature trends, even for regions as small as the southeastern sector of Australia.